Defending the 3 points, the GS challenge

[Brazil]

Few days ago, I read a SN article about 3 pts defense.

http://blog.mysanantonio.com/spursna...leaky-defense/

Here some interesting stuff on SA defense:

Games 1-61
97.7 points allowed/100 possessions (third in the NBA)
32.4 opposing 3-point percentage (second)
5.7 3s allowed per game (third)

Games 62-82
103.5 points allowed/100 possessions (14th)
43.0 opposing 3-point percentage (30th)
8.1 3s allowed per game (26th)

The last 20 games, Spurs have been horrible at D the 3 points nevertheless it seems TP and Manu presence are partially solving the issue:

3-point defense with Parker — 33.8 percent
Without — 38.8 percent
With Ginobili — 34.0 percent
Without — 37.0 percent

[again a stat showing how TP D is underrated]

So GS is probably our future opponent (86% chance) and GS is the hottest team from 3 (they are at .441 making 10 3s per game during the POs, .40 for the season) with crazy Curry that will be the most prolific 3 pts shooter of NBA history if he can stay healthy.

What kind of Spurs are we going to see, the first part of season best or the last 20 games or so ?

GS will need to stay red hot from 3 to have a chance.

Thoughts ?


edit: formatting

[freetiago]

Spurs were actually running teams off the line at the start of the season
now they went back to contesting shots for whayever reason instead of flying at them and making them do 1 dribble pullups which guys usually miss

another problem was the loss of Duncan
Duncan elite rim protection and rebounding means guys dont have to pack the paint and they can stay with their man more
without Duncan the Spurs were packing the paint to gang rebound and stop penetration
there was also a lot of Diaw/Bonner/Blair type bench frontcourts in the 2nd half which was brutal

as long as Duncan is healthy and they actually run guys off the line again they should be fine

[hater]

I don't think anything that was done in this round 1 series means jack . The real playoffs start in round 2.

[T Park]

I dont think anything post the Detroit Pistons Parker injury game means jack squat.

[spurraider21]

We should be able to score at will against the Warriors. Denver's length worries me more than the Warrior's outside shooting. If Splitter is back in time for the series, who defends him for the warriors? Will they have Harrison Barnes on him? Or will they adjust and throw Landry into the starting 5? If we have our 2 bigs, it won't let them go small unless they're content with getting absolutely punished down low and on the boards

[freetiago]

not really
Spurfan has been against Leonard/Splitter getting post touches this entire season
now is when it will hurt them as guys will be expected to do something theyve never done all season
Leonard will have Jack on him and Splitter will most likely have Barnes on him
i doubt their ability to consistently score on them since weve never really seen them get the opportunities

[therealtruth]

It's not time to believe in that regression to the mean nonsense that never happened against OKC. The Spurs have to make sure they don't have a good offensive rhythm.

[CGD]

I just don't think it will be that cose of a series. Maybe the games will be close score wise, but in the end spurs win without much problem. Warriors will get the Suns treatment circa 2007, when we ran all the players off the 3 line. Wouldn't be surprised to see Leonard on Curry ala Bowen on Nash toward the end of games. Also the emergence of Cory defensively should help stymie Curry somewhat. Not gonna stop the guy, but Spurs should be able to contain him fine. If the first round was about Splitter/Duncan and co's defense on the interior, the next round will be about Green/Leonard/Cory earning their stripes.

[rmt]

But aren't Curry and Thompson great mid-range shooters too? Running them off the 3 point line isn't going to do anything except give them closer, higher-percentage shots. I'm kinda torn between DEN and GSW. On one hand, DEN has more bigs but they aren't offensive bigs and while Tiago and Boris are still MIA, it's probably better to avoid them. Their half court offense is terrible too and if Spurs play good transition defense, they will be very limited.

GSW is scary when they get hot and Curry can really light it up. It reminds me of GSW 06. They're weaker without David Lee (so Tiago/Diaw missing early is not so bad) but Bogut is worrisome for TD - just bad memories of too many losses to the Bucks I guess.

[Obstructed_View]

But aren't Curry and Thompson great mid-range shooters too? Running them off the 3 point line isn't going to do anything except give them closer, higher-percentage shots.

Unless the Spurs start turning over the ball or forget how to rebound, running shooters off the three point line would probably be enough to keep the games from even being close. At some point you can't make enough shots if the other team doesn't give you enough attempts. That said, I don't think the Spurs will be "running people off" the three point line, because they won't be that out of position very often.

[Obstructed_View]

You guys know that Denver's going to win this in seven and all this talk will be for nothing. We'll suddenly have to start worrying about Javale McGee.

[Brunodf]

Spurs coasted after that 50 win tbh

[MSPaint]

Games 1-61
97.7 points allowed/100 possessions (third in the NBA)
32.4 opposing 3-point percentage (second)
5.7 3s allowed per game (third)

Games 62-82
103.5 points allowed/100 possessions (14th)
43.0 opposing 3-point percentage (30th)
8.1 3s allowed per game (26th)

The last 20 games, Spurs have been horrible at D the 3 points nevertheless it seems TP and Manu presence are partially solving the issue:

3-point defense with Parker — 33.8 percent
Without — 38.8 percent
With Ginobili — 34.0 percent
Without — 37.0 percent

[again a stat showing how TP D is underrated]

So basically, Spurs COULD lose to GS. I'm hearing a lot of "Spurs in 5" talk, but GS CAN beat SA, and will if they don't keep it up defensively. They got lucky with the d-league flakers, but if GS closes it out, dem' boys is comin' ready to play.

[Brazil]

You guys know that Denver's going to win this in seven and all this talk will be for nothing. We'll suddenly have to start worrying about Javale McGee.

We have time to waste till the beginning of round 2 so I thought it is an interesting point to discuss. GS is 3-1 they are favored right now IMHO unless curry got cold.

defending 3 pts has been an issue last season and the last 20 games have been worrisome even if its true tony and ginobili have a big impact and were mostly out.

fact is with Curry, Kay, jack GS is elite regarding 3 pts shooting. Curry is a beast and his impact is vastly underrated IMO. Spurs will need to focus right away at the beginning of the game to avoid they go crazy. Bb is a momentum game and a hot hand at the 3 is perfect to gain some. I don't see a such easy serie tbh.

[Fireball]

Best case scenario is Golden State winning in 6 games and Currys ankle gives in ... I do not wish this cool cat an injury, but his ankles are so injury prone it might happen ....

[spurraider21]

But aren't Curry and Thompson great mid-range shooters too? Running them off the 3 point line isn't going to do anything except give them closer, higher-percentage shots. I'm kinda torn between DEN and GSW. On one hand, DEN has more bigs but they aren't offensive bigs and while Tiago and Boris are still MIA, it's probably better to avoid them. Their half court offense is terrible too and if Spurs play good transition defense, they will be very limited.

GSW is scary when they get hot and Curry can really light it up. It reminds me of GSW 06. They're weaker without David Lee (so Tiago/Diaw missing early is not so bad) but Bogut is worrisome for TD - just bad memories of too many losses to the Bucks I guess.

Curry is great at everything. While Klay is a good all around shooter too, I'd rather have him take a long 2 pointer off the dribble than a spot up 3 pointer

[therealtruth]

You guys know that Denver's going to win this in seven and all this talk will be for nothing. We'll suddenly have to start worrying about Javale McGee.

That's only if Nuggets make the right adjustments. Right now they're getting outcoached.

[Brazil]

So.. GS is coming to daddy.
yesterday the took 25 3s attempts and converted 7 but still around the .400 for the serie.

[Obstructed_View]

That's only if Nuggets make the right adjustments. Right now they're getting outcoached.

Badly. They were ahead in game six because they were doing the right things. Then they started jacking up outside shots, not taking care of the ball, and trying to chase the ball around the court with two people.

[Brazil]

So it seems we have the last 20 games spurs. Gs is 50% from 3 so far, 7 made. 3s is gonna be key tbh

[Brazil]

And 8

[InRareForm]

2010 suns series anyone? pick n roll..

[Brazil]

Already 7 3s and the second quarter is not finished

[hyhy]

Warriors win it all tbh. 7/8 from 3 by thompson. If you run them off the 3point line, they drive in you will be behind them, requires help defense and they just pass to whoever is open inside = dunk. Their midrange shots are even better than 3pointers tbh. Heat has a real challenger if they keep this up

[ElNono]

Kenny said it right... it's not the 3 point defense... it's the dribble penetration. They go around our guys at will, defense collapses and they get every shot they want.

We just can't stay in front of them or deny penetration. Most of their plays start with a high pick, and we're either showing up too late or too slow to recover.