Someone Convince Me The Grizzlies Shouldn't Be The Overwhelming Favorite in the WCF

[Capt Bringdown]

You really don't want to be a work in progress at this point, but that's what the Spurs are unfortunately. The Grizz are right where they want to be.
Grizz in 4.

[DPG21920]

Uncle - my thoughts.

1) Home court. I know it didn't seem to mean much against GS, but it should help.

2) Spurs at least get 2 full days off and another solid break in game 3.

3) OKC, who had more question marks, is worse offensively and defensively than the Spurs was able to be in every game.

4) Not only were they in every game, they were in every game without KD playing extra well. Even taking their best scorer out, OKC still was able to have a shot to win most games. So, if the MEM takes TP out, Spurs have more weapons than OKC did to help put them over the top.


There are more questions than answers, and I am generally a pretty glass half empty kind of a guy because I know the Spurs well, but I would not say they are "overwhelmingly" dogs here. Dogs, sure, but I am pretty hopeful.

[DAF86]

If the Spurs are healthy/have enough in the tank they should win in 5 or 6. Memphis is one of the worst shooting teams in the entire NBA, with a decent game plan (like the one we used against LAL) we should be able to exploit this mayor weakness. Also, after that 2011 series Tony has dominated Conley in personal matchups. Spurs have won 4 out of the last 6 against Memphis and those two Grizzlies wins have been pretty damn close and we were missing key guys.

[RD2191]

Z-Bo's shooting against the Spurs this season. Spurs lost by 3 in overtime and Tim and Kawhi did not play in the 2nd loss.

5-21
8-15
4-11
4-11

[Poolboy5623]

Time to unleash baynes...hate to keep saying it, but if he's not in uniform..against this matchup, something's wrong. Problem is who sits? Tmac or mills imo

[letmk]

The only thing I'm worrying about is that Pop goes panic and starts doubling Randolph and others. As good as Randolph plays, he is not a KB/Durant type scorer. Even when he shoots 70%, the most he can get is 35 points. Let everyone stay with their own opponent.

[ironman2886]

ZBo sucked all year long and for some reason he got his touch back starting in game 3 against the Clippers... he's a great rebounder, but you get the feeling his ungodly jumpers have to come back down to earth at some point... never better than this series.

Grizz are also a team that's tops in defense, but if you can consistently manage to drop 90+ pts on them, it gets very difficult for them to match that. More than the interior play, I'm concerned with covering Conley and Bayless from downtown... giving up 3 pointers against a team that has so much trouble scoring consistently can change the series. Spurs also need to focus on defensive rebounding... second chance points are going to be key, IMO.

Zbo isn't shooting jumpers. He is a bull down low. He rarely takes jump shots anymore.

[SanDiegoSpursFan]

I think the Spurs can run against the Grizzlies. It will be tough with a hobbled Parker though. And the Spurs' bigs should be able to do a better job than the frontcourts of the Clippers and OKC against Z-Bo and Gasol.

[ElNono]

Z-Bo's shooting against the Spurs this season. Spurs lost by 3 in overtime and Tim and Kawhi did not play in the 2nd loss.

5-21
8-15
4-11
4-11

You can throw that out of the window, though... ZBo for some reason found the fountain of youth after game 3 against the Clippers... he and Conley are the head of the snake right now

[ThePop]

Damn even Pop probably lets the players enjoy a win longer than it took for this thread to show up.

[Chinook]

I think the Spurs are in a pretty good place, all things considered.

-Splitter looks like he's waking up. If he gets back to mid-season form, the Grizzlies don't have nearly the advantage inside that they may seem to.

-Green playing well combined with Hollins' desire to play Bayless and Conley at the same time means Danny (and Cory) can help Parker contain Conley. That should let Parker use whatever energy he has on offense.

-Thompson may be overrated as a defender, but having to go against size for a whole series may help Parker find ways to get off his shot. I could see this being an easier series on Parker, at least as far as individual match-ups go. Allen is really the only wing that may see time on him.

-Speaking of Allen, Leonard should have the advantage on him when Memphis plays him at the three. While Allen is a great defender, Leonard should be able to beat him on the boards.

-Memphis' bench is really not very good. If the Spurs are able to keep two of Duncan, Splitter and Diaw on the floor most of the time, that second unit has a chance to shine again. We saw hints of it coming back tonight.

Unlike you, I don't expect Memphis to win. OKC had no one who could score outside of Durant. They were also very undisciplined when it came to guarding fast breaks. They also didn't know when to double, which meant they pretty much let the Grizzlies' bigs score at will. The Spurs are a much better team in terms of coaching and having a good system. I don't see Memphis scoring as much on the Spurs as they did last series, and I expect the Spurs to score more than the Thunder did. When looking at how close the games were between OKC and Memphis, I think that little difference means a lot.

[Kuestmaster]

The spurs are going to win this in 5-6 games. Duncan, Splitter and Diaw can handle Marc and Z-Bo. You limit their production and they have nothing left. Bayless, Allen and Conley? C'mon, Tony, Leonard, Manu and Green are much better.

[silverblackfan]

First of all, mad respect for your jinx thread.

1. Duncan isn't playing that well. He had trouble with Bogut and Marc Gasol is just a better version than Bogut. TD has had a great season but it's asking a ton for him to shine against the DPOY.
Tim is not going to just drop out at the end of his career because Gasol got the award that he also qualified for.

2. Parker is hurting. He had trouble scoring against a Warriors team with iffy defensive guards and limited bigs. What's going to happen against Conley -- arguably the best Parker defender in the league -- and a team with legit bigmen and other players with agile length? On paper, this looks like it'll be a disastrous series for TP unless he miraculously returns to health.
Parker has been improving in each game of the GS series. He and Gino had a crap offensive game, and still managed to create enough points to close out GS. They will be fine.

3. Ginobili is no longer in the stage of his career where he can carry a team. And besides, going up against Tony Allen would be a tall task no matter his age.
Ginobili looks good right now. I don't think his shot will every match what it was 3 years ago, but his play-making, like Borus will more than compensate.

4. Splitter played a bit better today but he's still playing without physicality. He has trouble grabbing contested boards. He still has issues finishing in crowds. Those three faults play perfectly into the Grizzlies hands.
Splitter is clearly playing better as his ankle injury improves.


5. Leonard and Green just came off of a GREAT defensive series -- but Memphis does their damage on the inside. There really won't be anyone for those two to shut down. Thus, it'll be much more difficult to impact the series.
I translate this to mean that they can't do it again, but I think it is the foundation for their future sucess


6. Diaw, Bonner and Blair are all poor matchups against a physical frontline.
Agreed.

7. Neal's ballhandling and decision-making against that pressure defense? Yikes.
Agreed.

8. Does Joseph have the experience to play in what is going to be a glorified back alley dogfight?
He has not disappointed yet.

9. The Grizzlies are at the very least as good defensively as the Spurs. Most likely, they're better. San Antonio was superior offensively for the majority of this season -- but they've fallen off a cliff in the last couple months. That ball-movement that made this team special is mostly gone. They don't have much in terms of individual creators. The Grizzlies offense isn't awesome but their scoring, on paper at least, will be more reliable since it'll come on the inside. Add in the points they'll create by forcing turnovers and hitting the offensive glass -- and I can't make a strong case for the Spurs having a better offense or defense right now.
Meh.

10. We still really don't know how good the Spurs are at the moment. Should we take anything from sweeping the Lakers? Probably not. Is struggling with a Warriors team that was mediocre in the regular season a bad sign? Yeah, probably. Add in the poor way the Spurs ended the regular season -- and this team is still riddled with question marks. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, know exactly what they are and what they aren't.
That is why they play the games.
Personally, I think the Spurs can handle this series.

[ElNono]

Zbo isn't shooting jumpers. He is a bull down low. He rarely takes jump shots anymore.

He was making circus shots over Ibaka from almost the 3 point line the last game... I mean, I remember everybody going "wow ZBo" in the game thread on the NBA forum...

[DPG21920]

To me, it comes down to Duncan's gas tank and overall rebounding. Win there and Spurs have a good shot. Doubling like they did on Dwight will be tougher because Gasol is a stud passer and Zbo has gotten better there. Hopefully their scrubs don't make a lot of shots (which they didn't against OKC as evidenced by the low scores).

[RD2191]

Are you guys serious? I'm the biggest cliff jumper on this site and I have faith in the Spurs. Spurs in 4 or 5.

[Whisky Dog]

I think Green is ready for the challenge of making Connelly uncomfortable and making him work. I think we need Duncan to get his legs over these next couple days and be ready to go game 1. Wouldn't be shocked to see some Baynes for post defense and extra fouls.

Splitter/Diaw are key, especially Splitter. This team looked seriously outmatched by the speed and shooting of GS early but the Spurs adjusted and turned up the defense to win. They may look a bit out of sorts early against Memphis but I believe they can adjust and turn up the defensive intensity. Then it just becomes who can score the most in a defensive low scoring series like how the Spurs made games 3-6 of this series. I like their chances with the shooters they have over Memphis' scorers.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

The Grzzlies have an awful perimeter offense. As much as Gasol is a better version of Bogut, Allen and Conley are a way tier version of the splash brothers. This means we can pack the paint.

Splitter gives Randolph fits. He likes to hit that 12 foot jump shot but Splitter eats that up. Randolph's post offense is overrated as . He can go ahead try to rainbow fadeways because Splitter just doesn't go for pump fakes.

Duncan looked slow because they had him dealing with Curry and Thompson off of pnr. Conley and Allen? gmfb.

Gasol and Randolph don't play much more than 35 mpg. Sure Diaw, Blair and Bonner would get destroyed by those two one on one but Diaw is tailor made for dealing with Arthur and we can still pack the paint off of Prince and Allen's man.

[DPG21920]

Spurs need to put their best defender on Bayless when he comes in. He is their bench and a scorer. If you shut him down when he is in, MEM struggles to put up points.

[silverblackfan]

Are you guys serious? I'm the biggest cliff jumper on this site and I have faith in the Spurs. Spurs in 4 or 5.

Wow, I was really confident until I saw this post...

[ironman2886]

He was making circus shots over Ibaka from almost the 3 point line the last game... I mean, I remember everybody going "wow ZBo" in the game thread on the NBA forum...

I have seen both of Memphis' series, and he rarely takes those shots. He is mulling guys down low and snatching up rebounds and putting them back in like a layup drill. I even thought it was in the Spurs' favor.

[T Park]

To me, it comes down to Duncan's gas tank and overall rebounding. Win there and Spurs have a good shot. Doubling like they did on Dwight will be tougher because Gasol is a stud passer and Zbo has gotten better there. Hopefully their scrubs don't make a lot of shots (which they didn't against OKC as evidenced by the low scores).

These two days off will be big, plus the three after game 2.

[Budkin]

Also Manu doesn't have a BROKEN ARM

[ElNono]

I have seen both of Memphis' series, and he rarely takes those shots. He is mulling guys down low and snatching up rebounds and putting them back in like a layup drill. I even thought it was in the Spurs' favor.

well, yeah, he's a monster rebounder and we're going to need to pay a lot of attention to defensive boards, no doubt

[Mal]

It all will come to how many bull fadeaway assshots Zach Randolph will make