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To be honest this is an obvious reverse jinx thread tbh
Spurs in 5
I apologize in advance but my first reaction when thinking about the Spurs vs. Grizzlies is Memphis should be considered a heavy favorite. Right now, I'm thinking the Grizzlies in 5 or 6 is a pretty damn safe bet. I hate to be this pessimistic but I just don't see how the Spurs are going to win this series. Maybe someone can convince me otherwise but ...
1. Duncan isn't playing that well. He had trouble with Bogut and Marc Gasol is just a better version than Bogut. TD has had a great season but it's asking a ton for him to shine against the DPOY.
2. Parker is hurting. He had trouble scoring against a Warriors team with iffy defensive guards and limited bigs. What's going to happen against Conley -- arguably the best Parker defender in the league -- and a team with legit bigmen and other players with agile length? On paper, this looks like it'll be a disastrous series for TP unless he miraculously returns to health.
3. Ginobili is no longer in the stage of his career where he can carry a team. And besides, going up against Tony Allen would be a tall task no matter his age.
4. Splitter played a bit better today but he's still playing without physicality. He has trouble grabbing contested boards. He still has issues finishing in crowds. Those three faults play perfectly into the Grizzlies hands.
5. Leonard and Green just came off of a GREAT defensive series -- but Memphis does their damage on the inside. There really won't be anyone for those two to shut down. Thus, it'll be much more difficult to impact the series.
6. Diaw, Bonner and Blair are all poor matchups against a physical frontline.
7. Neal's ballhandling and decision-making against that pressure defense? Yikes.
8. Does Joseph have the experience to play in what is going to be a glorified back alley dogfight?
9. The Grizzlies are at the very least as good defensively as the Spurs. Most likely, they're better. San Antonio was superior offensively for the majority of this season -- but they've fallen off a cliff in the last couple months. That ball-movement that made this team special is mostly gone. They don't have much in terms of individual creators. The Grizzlies offense isn't awesome but their scoring, on paper at least, will be more reliable since it'll come on the inside. Add in the points they'll create by forcing turnovers and hitting the offensive glass -- and I can't make a strong case for the Spurs having a better offense or defense right now.
10. We still really don't know how good the Spurs are at the moment. Should we take anything from sweeping the Lakers? Probably not. Is struggling with a Warriors team that was mediocre in the regular season a bad sign? Yeah, probably. Add in the poor way the Spurs ended the regular season -- and this team is still riddled with question marks. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, know exactly what they are and what they aren't.
I hope beyond hope that I'm dead wrong. I really, really, really want the Spurs to win this series. (In fact, just making it to the Finals would make my year; I wouldn't even care if the Spurs lost to the Heat -- I just want this team to make the Finals one last time.)
Hopefully there are a few pieces to the puzzle that I'm missing. Maybe one of you can give me some hope. Maybe when I crunch the numbers, I'll see it differently.
I want to believe -- but as I'm sitting here right now, I just can't do it by any logical means. I'm sorry.
To be honest this is an obvious reverse jinx thread tbh
The revenge factor you mentioned last season. Helps the Spurs match up better than in 2011.
Leonard has to leave his imprint on this series. If the grizzlies do win, my guess would be 7 games.
I don't see how you couldn't put Green on Conley and let Parker guard Poindexter, Prince, or Allen.
pack the paint and force Prince and Allen to beat you. OKC had success doing it...
Grizzlies shoot ~80+ points each game. clippers and thunder do not have an offense to execute. Spurs just have to shoot 90-100 points for 4 games to win the series. Believe that spurs will not be held to 80 points for 4 games and we win
They can't shoot 3s. Conley and Pondexter are the only credible 3 point threats and they don't shoot them as much as GS does.
And Baynes is always an option.
I wish it were, tbh.
I just don't see it right now..........
This series is gonna be a war, but I think homecourt is enough to get us back to the Finals.
Another reverse jinx.Props for Timvp
Gonna have to be a pessimist like timvp.
The Grizzlies are just clicking at the right moment. You could think the Spurs have revenge on their minds, but they just look gassed coming off the Warriors series. So many question marks about the Spurs, while the Grizzlies seem to have things figured out.
I'm thinking Grizz in 6, tbh.
Itll be tough but I don't see how it isn't pack the paint and make Allen and Prince beat you. Parker can hide and rest on offense, Spurs bigs are much better prepared size and talent wise than 2011. Plus, the Grizzlies are VERY prone to drive and dish.
Are you kidding me Timvp? They have 1 great player in Randolph, and their are times where he gets benched at the end of games because of disputes with his coach. Were not going to lose to Jared Bayless, Tayshaun Prince, and Quincy Pondexter either. We have the much better team. I shouldn't even have to go through the match ups. Seriously, this is not two years ago. We didn't have Leonard or Green, and Splitter never played. That's 3 starters. Were much better. I think everyone is overrating Memphis right now. Remember. Were not the most talented team, but were still TWICE as talented as Memphis.
ZBo sucked all year long and for some reason he got his touch back starting in game 3 against the Clippers... he's a great rebounder, but you get the feeling his ungodly jumpers have to come back down to earth at some point... never better than this series.
Grizz are also a team that's tops in defense, but if you can consistently manage to drop 90+ pts on them, it gets very difficult for them to match that. More than the interior play, I'm concerned with covering Conley and Bayless from downtown... giving up 3 pointers against a team that has so much trouble scoring consistently can change the series. Spurs also need to focus on defensive rebounding... second chance points are going to be key, IMO.
Simple, Leonard, Green, Splitter & CoJo. And Manu knows that if he's off, he does not shoot. Seriously, this team is in the groove. The challenge by the Dubs actually does the Spurs some good.
As long as everyone is healthy, I'm confident the Spurs will win. I don't have a feeling about in 5, 6 or 7 games, but I just have the feeling that we will win, unlike in 2011.
I don't reverse jink playoff predictions, bra.Another reverse jinx.
Favorites? probably. Overwhelming? don't think so.
i don't think the Grizz are that much better than the 2011 version, if at all tbh. Spurs are better equipped this time around and have played pretty damn good ball for the better part of the last 4 games.
I like our chances.
wow, just wowis all I have to say. I'll believe this is a covert reverse jinx attempt, and leave it at that...
Leonard and Splitter will need to be solid in this series in order for us to move on.
I agree with the concerns and think the belief that Memphis is the favorite in this series is a valid one. I'll be surprised (pleasantly, but still) if the Spurs manage a series win.
I think if you're looking for some intangible that might justify some sort of seemingly-irrational belief in the good guys, it would be their motivation to put last year's West Finals behind them, but I'm not sure how far that will take a creaky team that seems to be susceptible to long bouts of offensive stagnation, has been really leaky on the defensive glass, and on its best day lacks much quality depth among its bigs.
The only con about Memphis is their bench, but players like Arthur have a living destroying the Spurs frontcourt. Bayless may go off too if Neal is guarding him, but in the season Bayless struggled against the Spurs.
This is going to be a 80-90 point long series. It will boil down to who can execute the final 5 minutes of the game.
One thing going in the Spurs advantage is that they've had the perfect tune-up to deal with the Grizzlies.
Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard presented the over-whelming inside presence that will rear it's head again against the Griz. That being said, Pau and Cryight are arguably a more dominating duo than Marc and Zbo, and the Spurs were able to counter that with a good strategy of doubling and trapping. The same strategy can be employed against Memphis, who are just as impotent with their outside shooting as the Lakers were. If they make shots from the arc, you tip the hat.
The Warriors, on the other hand, prepared the Spurs for defending a perimeter attack and dealing with a high scoring team. While the strategy won't really carry over, it builds the team's confidence that if they can drag down a team that is used to scoring 105 ppg, they can surely lock down a team that struggles to break 85. It will be a defensive battle, to be sure. I'm expecting some ugly games. But the Spurs have the advantage offensively, and I don't see the Grizzlies defensive prowess being enough to overcome that difference.
Finally, 2011 obviously lingers in Spurs fans minds when going up against the Grizzlies. However, as well as ZBo has played, he isn't at the same unconscious level that he was at during 8. Same goes for Gasol. Arthur seems to have regressed, and they don't have Battier there anymore to lock down the perimeter. Personally, I am hoping that the theory of lightning not striking the same place twice will work in the Spurs favor.
I also think the slow pace is much better suited for the Spurs, tbh... especially banged up... no more chasing young kids around the perimeter
They couldn't blow out a banged up OKC team, think about that the thunder threw out Ibaka, Perkins, and Collison, and the Grizz couldn't win by more than 6. Those games could have gone either way and Durant choked twice. Like i said elsewhere it's going to come down to our scrubs vs their scrubs. Don't even bring up 2011 cause memphis only won due to Shane Battier and Gravis Vasquez and they aren't there anymore. Neither is HWSNBN
first off bogut always has given duncan trouble
I like the big game splitter had tonight
I think this series blair might be usefully. He would have to prove his worth on the court. He needs to bang with randolph. He has the body and I do nto think he would be afraid to shove his weight around.
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