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1st rule of jinx thread is you don't talk about jinx thread, tbh
Oh yeah no question. After Green's performance, I have the utmost confidence in him and Leonard taking out Conley and Bayless.
1st rule of jinx thread is you don't talk about jinx thread, tbh
I tell you this much though - a solid game one performance and win is critical. Do not want to fall behind against this MEM team who can defend like they do. You saw the calming effect of that game one vs OKC for MEM. They lost it, but you could tell right there they knew they would beat that OKC team.
Winning game 1 and playing well, is crucial.
On the money. Spurs can't afford to have the wind blown out of their sails right off the bat with a Game 1 loss.
My other concern is winning a game in Memphis. Spurs fared poorly in the '11 series on the road, and Memphis is undefeated at home in the playoffs so far.
Spurs in 6. We'll lose game 2 and split one in Memphis. Unlike 2011, I'm confident we'll be better prepared for the buzz-saw that is Memphis.
Both of the Grizzlies wins were by a combined 5 points. Kawhi and Duncan also missed the last game which was a Grizz 2 point win. Not worried, tbh.
Well, if the Spurs can't win on the road, they aren't going to make it to the finals. To me, with a team like the Spurs, they have shown HCA to be a little iffy, but they have also shown to be a great road team. It's less about HCA (although that is important) and more about the actual match ups.
Spurs have a good shot if TP/Tim are gassed up enough.
As of yesterday, the Spurs were -135 to go to the Finals and the Grizzlies were +135. I don't think tonight's outcome changes that much.
The Grizzlies are going to be a ing problem but I just hope we atleast make the finals
We play an early game on sunday right? That sucks major Kardashian's ass, tbh.
I'm still soaking it in.
For the record, I don't put much merit into looking at the 2011 series as a blueprint -- too much has changed since then. And I'm more worried about the Spurs than I am overly impressed by the Grizzlies -- so critiquing what they did against the Thunder doesn't sway my opinion much.
Basically, I still see an iffy Spurs team with tons of question marks going up against a Grizzlies team with very few question marks. I think the Spurs will have to kick it up a notch to beat the Grizzlies and I'm not sure the Spurs have another notch to reach. In fact, it'll probably be difficult to remain where they are right now.
Hope I'm wrong but while I can definitely imagine scenarios where the Spurs win -- the vast majority of the likeliest scenarios have the Grizzlies winning in my mind.
But I'm not concrete about a series prediction just yet...
I'll bet you the Spurs will win this series. I love this matchup. I don't see how Memphis scores enough to get it done?
Spurs system will produce enough points.
Now against Miami we are the overwhelming underdog.
Grizzlies have very few question marks? They can't freakin shoot from the outside.
I think the main point of interest is how poor the Grizzlies score the basketball during a typical game compared to how much the Spurs score when they have a BAD game.
When you look at some of the Grizzlies' wins, they have like 84-88 points. A ty Spurs game is like.. .a 91 point game. If the game is high scoring, most likely we'll be killing them. If it's low scoring, honestly, they just will not hit miracle shots at an alarming rate like the Grizzlies. They will brick enough to allow the Spurs to sneak back into games they're sucking in.
Another key factor (if the refs call the game right), is that the Grizzlies foul a lot while the Spurs made a point to have it's players practice increasing their FT% in the offseason. Spurs are good from the line now. Also, unlike 2011, Duncan is actually having a good season and Splitter is healthy and playing. Not to mention we also have Diaw now and Baynes to play a little when our main guys are in foul trouble. We also know how good they are, not more shock value of Gasol/Randolph's potential.
I think when you put all this together, the Spurs aren't as poor off as you might think. It's going to be a tough series, but I believe it's possible for the Spurs to end it in 5 if they take care of business at home.
Guard Conley, Bayless and Pondexter and make Allen and Prince volume shooters.
I believe our defense can hold them to < 90, while we have better perimeter shooters that should beat them offensively. Tony won't be as low scoring as he was tonight. I would agree they are peaking at a good time, but we are going be the more improved team. Manu and TP will never shoot as poorly as tonight in all likelihood. Last time they played us in SA we won in OT if I remember correctly. I expect more of the same really.
Timvp, I can't agree with you on this. Why? Not to burst your realist bubble, but the Grizz just beat an extremely depleted OKC club. The loss of Westbrook literally rendered OKC a one-limbed team. As good as he is, Westbrook's value was severely underrated. Plus his recent loss deflated OKC further mentally. This was easy for the Grizz. in other words, they looked better than they are beating OKC. On the other hand, the warriors defeated a great Denver team that honestly would have beaten OKC without Westbrook, but after the Spurs got focused defensively against the Warriors, Golden State just stopped scoring. The Spurs will simply have to stifle the Grizzlies post game like they stifled the Warriors on the perimeter. This is possible with a rejuvenated Duncan and improved Splitter. Green and Leonard can take a crack at Conley if he starts going off and Tony is having trouble guarding him. The Bears are good, but I don't understand where you are coming from here.
Spurs in 5. We're better than them plain and simple
I've read all of your points, and I come away unconvinced. In fact, I'm in pretty much the opposite boat atm. I'm wondering how the Grizzlies are going to even hang with the Spurs.
I'll go over them one by one so I don't miss anything.
Duncan looked bad at times, but he doesn't look injured, and he doesn't look spent.
Gasol is nowhere near as physical as Bogut is. Duncan has struggled against Bogut for years, or did you forget how bad their record was against Milwaukee?
Duncan struggled against quickness and pick and rolls where he had to show on someone willing to shoot from 30 feet away. Memphis won't be doing that. Playing against a traditional front line is right in his wheelhouse.
Duncan struggled against small, quick bigs who have access to long rebounds off jumpers. Memphis won't have that and won't be playing that way. This also means that Duncan can hit a couple of jumpers, and then go past his defender when he runs out at him and do damage inside. That's been missing since the Laker series.
Memphis doesn't have as much movement on defense, which means fewer guys running around, and more passes to the inside.
Again, I don't see Parker limping or laboring. He's also not winded, since his fourth quarters in this series border on legendary.
Parker spent a great deal of time in this series either getting crushed by picks because there was nobody to help him or matched up against much bigger guys while his teammates defended Curry. After checking Barnes, Thompson and Green, playing Conley straight up will be a vacation.
Parker can get space for his own shots with Duncan and Splitter in the game, even with Golden State's speed. Memphis isn't that quick.
Parker's going to be able to draw fouls when he gets inside.
Sorry to belabor the point, but Manu's not limping, not putting his hands on his knees, and doesn't look winded, slowed or injured.
Fortunately, the Spurs have a really good offense that doesn't require anyone carry it so long as they're passing the ball and looking for good shots. Manu's only job is to make sure Allen stays on him all series. The less time Allen spends on Parker, the better for everyone. If the ball is moving and the shot selection is judicious, that matchup gets a lot easier.
Splitter still looks relatively like crap but the Spurs' offense and defense clicks along so well with him in the rotation, the Spurs are playing bad and you suddenly look up and they're leading by 8. He didn't get a lot of rebounds, but he was instrumental in getting tough rebounds for his teammates in this game. The pick and roll with him and Manu made a cameo as well, which is a good sign, and his flip shot was going in. He's going to have to be tougher against Memphis than he was against Golden State, but he's healthy going into the matchup. Splitter was probably the best player for the Spurs against Memphis in 2011, and the difference is now he's starting and seems to have Pop's trust back. Also, did I mention he's healthy?
So Green and Leonard are playing defense at an elite level, are hitting their threes again, are playing with confidence, rebounding the ball exceptionally well...and you're worried about that somehow?
First of all, no Bonner and Blair! Yay! That Aaron guy looks like a good matchup, and he's got energy. Diaw's playing relatively inspired ball, and would be good for the occasional matchup curve-ball.
Frankly, the only thing better than no Bonner is no Neal. Even if he hits the occasional jumper, they're running ZERO pick and rolls for him, and the ball movement is nonexistent when he's in the game. If Pop runs smallball sets against this team for any amount of time the Spurs are doomed anyway. Doomed, I say!
I'm with Van Gundy on this one. He got roughed up by Golden State for six games and just kept coming back. It sounds odd, but for what he's doing, he's the one person I don't worry about because all he has to do is play hard.
You must have missed the last two games. The Spurs followed up a game where they scored 40 baskets on 30 assists with a game where they scored 33 baskets on 27 assists. 75 and 82 percent, respectively. If the Spurs don't move the ball on offense, they're doomed. Doooomed, I say. The Spurs will look at tape, realize that they pissed away two fourth quarter leads because they went away from their offense and tried to win shooting threes, and will hopefully decide not to do that against Memphis. The lack of any need to run four guard sets will probably help more than hinder. The Spurs, as bad as they looked at times in this series, were not a turnover-happy bunch. I don't expect that to suddenly change against Memphis.
Furthermore, it's worth noting that OKC's offense was beyond dreadful for most of the series because they clearly thought their season ended with Westbrook's injury. Kevin Durant going one on two or one on three for fadeaways while Serge Ibaka spots up for three in the corner is bad basketball, and while Memphis won four in a row, they didn't exactly put them away decisively. OKC outrebounded the out of Memphis too.
Memphis isn't playing the average NBA team on paper, they're playing the Spurs, who match up extremely well with them as long as Matt Bonner isn't getting a lot of minutes.
We'll find out pretty quickly what's what. The Lakers suck, but it was great getting the rest, because the Spurs are as healthy as they've been in a while. The Spurs came out flat, sick, and with Diaw and Splitter on the mend and got buzzed by a team that was playing with a world of confidence, and they managed to squash it with relative ease once they got their full roster back and playing their game. I said it in another thread, but just as the Spurs were built to lose to Memphis in 2011, as we all feared and knew, this year's team is built to dominate Memphis.
I hope beyond hope that you're dead wrong, and maybe hope is the only reason I'm saying what I'm saying. It feels like it makes sense. I'd love to see the Spurs have one last shot at the finals, but Miami doesn't look completely invincible. God damn, their interior defense is good, but the Bulls were a s of themselves. Probably need to hope Wade isn't 100 percent to have a chance, but I think they can get that far.
I'll take Tony,Green and Khawi over Conley, Allen and Prince any day all day.
This. I hate the ing cliff-jumpers in this thread tbh. This team has gone through a lot against GSW, and yet they still closed them in 6 games. Spurs in 7.
Remember the true ex-factor: no RJ
This series is going to be an absolute dog fight. The Spurs have to be ready to play stout team defense (especially on the interior) and gang rebound as well. I do think the Spurs are capable of winning this series though. The Spurs have a good balance of both offense and defense, while the Grizzlies are great on defense, but struggle to score points on the offensive end. And their guards are nowhere near the level of the guards of GS. Conley is good, and Bayless and Pondexter can hit outside shots, but that's about it. Tony Allen has an ugly jumper, and Tayshaun Prince isn't the Tayshaun Prince of 2005 anymore. Is he still good defensively? Sure. But you can live with him shooting mid-range jumpers...
Why is timvp trolling now?
I also think Danny Green is the X factor against Memphis. If he can hit at least 3-4 3's a game, the games wont even be close. Mike Conley is also the Grizzlies 3rd highest scorer and 3rd offensive threat at 17 ppg in the post-season. We all know PG is the easiest position to shut down, if Green can carry his defensive effort into the Memphis series then the Spurs should roll.
I see this series as a 50-50 proposition.
Conley is essential to the Grizz offence - how is he going to fare when we can throw Green/Leonard at him the whole time and hide TP on Allen?
Also, Splitter/Diaw defend Z-Bo well.
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