10. Bench Production
The Grizzlies don't have much in the way of a bench, while the Spurs have arguably the best bench unit in the NBA. Historically, bench production is much more valuable in the regular season than the playoffs. But if the Spurs can dominate this area, it'd put a ton of pressure of Memphis' starting five to be flawless.
9. Danny Green's Continued Excellence
I though Danny Green was damn good against the Warriors. But I also thought he was damn good against the Clippers last year in the second round. This year, he needs to prove his flameout in the Western Conference Finals against the Thunder was a fluke. He can do that by shooting confidently and playing ferocious defense -- especially when he's switched off onto Mike Conley.
8. Keep Memphis off the Line
The Grizzlies have been the best team in the playoffs at getting to the free throw line. The Spurs have been the best team in the playoffs at keeping their opponent off the free throw line. Something has to give; let's hope it's in San Antonio's direction. Limiting their charity stripe visits will not only test Memphis' sometimes creaky offense, it lessens the chance that the three main bigs (Duncan, Splitter, Diaw) will get in foul trouble. The bigs beyond those three don't match up well with the Grizzlies but they don't need to even play as long as the fouls don't pile up.
7. Patience from Manu Ginobili
Memphis feasts on trapping and then jumping passing lanes. When Manu Ginobili isn't at the top of his game, he tends to suc b to that type of defensive gameplan. But as long as he plays smart and remains patient, he can avoid those costly mistakes. When trapped in this series, the simplest pass is the right pass to make -- not the one-handed, looping, crosscourt pass. Depending on how they defend him, Ginobili may need to be very aggressive with his scoring or take a backseat. He needs to read what's needed and react accordingly.
6. Keep Tim Duncan Moving
Marc Gasol is this year's Defensive Player of the Year. While it's a travesty that he has now won this award and Tim Duncan never has, the Spaniard is legitimately a very good defender. On the low block, he has the length, size and craftiness to bother Duncan. But where TD has an advantage is on the move -- especially if he's hitting his outside jumper. If that J is hitting net, then Duncan can mix in pump-fakes and drives to the basket. Running the court is another area where he can find easier baskets. Plus, offensive rebounding could be an avenue for success for Duncan since Gasol is deceptively just a mediocre defensive rebounder. Four Down has been great to the Spurs over the years but in this series, it'd be unwise to go to it more than three or four times per game.
5. Limit Turnovers
This is obviously a key against any team but it takes on extra importance against the Grizzlies. First of all, Memphis is very likely the best team in the league at forcing turnovers. And they tend to force those turnovers in bunches -- which leads to prolonged runs. The second reason why it's important to limit turnovers as much as possible against the Grizzlies is simple: It fuels their offense. No team relies on their defense to generate offense as much as Memphis, so if you cut off that supply line to easy points, things become much easier for your defense.
4. Defensive Rebounding
The Grizzlies are a great offensive rebounding team. The Spurs have struggled in this area at times in the postseason -- sometimes horrifically so. If San Antonio fails to clean up the defensive backboard, Memphis has the personnel to beat you living off of the offensive glass alone. The Spurs must be physical, box out every possession and not rely on flopping under the rim. The Grizzlies bigs rarely get called for fouls for pushing off or going over the back -- so it'll come down to simply manning up and eating that glass.
3. Push the Pace
This will be another battle of wills. The Grizzlies play at the slowest pace in the league. The Spurs prefer to play at the fastest pace possible. Again, something will have to give. For the Spurs, if they turn this into a track meet, it will work in their favor. Not only is it easier to score against the Grizzlies in fast break situations, it also exposes Memphis' lack of a quality bench. The Grizzlies are experts at keeping the pace slow so it will be tough to speed things up. But for the Spurs, this has to be the No. 1 time-wide goal of this series. Run, run and run some more.
2. Creation from Tony Parker
To push the pace and score in the fast break, Tony Parker is the key. To score against the Grizzlies set defense, Parker's pick-and-roll game will be the best choice. To create open three-pointers, Parker needs to be slicing and dicing. When the shot clock is ticking toward zero, Parker going one-on-one will be the best weapon at San Antonio's disposal. In other words, Parker being able to create in this series is going to be paramount. When healthy and at his best, he's built to carve up the Grizzlies unlike anyone in the NBA outside of perhaps LeBron James.
1. Toughness from Tiago Splitter
If Tiago Splitter is at his best, the Spurs become a strong favorite in this series. When he's hitting on all cylinders, he's the perfect player to put next to Duncan in order to slow down the Grizzlies. Unfortunately, Splitter was at his best in the middle of the season and has slowly but surely declined since then. In these playoffs, he hasn't put together many solid quarters -- much less solid games. However, there is some hope because his best stretch of his postseason was his play to end Game 6 in Golden State. If he can play like that against the Grizzlies, the Spurs can and should win the series.
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For the record, my official prediction is Grizzlies in 6. Obviously, I'm praying/hoping/wishing/begging to every possible divine spirit/force/power that the Spurs win this series, but I'm not going to lie when that's how I logically see the series panning out in the most likely scenario. I've been wrong plenty before so hopefully I'm wrong again and the Spurs make me look stupid for doubting them.
Why do I still think Grizzlies in 6? I simply don't trust Tiago Splitter at this point. His drop in production has been too consistent for me to think it's reasonable to expect him to bounce back. He was great in January but then worse in February, even worse in March, worse yet in April and the worst so far in May. Can he turn it around against the Grizzlies? He has to in order for the Spurs to win this series.
And, also, I don't think Tony Parker is healthy. He doesn't whine about injuries but something isn't right -- and it's more than just that calf bruise. Without Parker near 100% health, it'd be really, really difficult to score against the Grizzlies.
I apologize for the pessimism but I don't don't get paid be a cheerleader, I don't get paid to write it like I see it.
I predict spurs in 7.
Reverse jinx FTW.
Ya stick with that, I'll stick with this.
Boiled down:
Spurs in 5.
Seriously though good points though Tiago as number 1 is scary as for us Spurs fans.
Go Spurs Go!
Ya stick with that, I'll stick with this.
Boiled down:
Spurs in 5.
Seriously though good points though Tiago as number 1 is scary as for us Spurs fans.
Go Spurs Go!
You and me both, timvp.
I think Grizz in 6. It doesn't mean I'm quitting on the Spurs or don't expect them to advance. It's just how I see it.
This is Splitter's make or break chance of getting himself a good contract.
If the Spurs win the first two, Spurs in 5. If they drop one, Grizz in 6 like 2011.
I must say, your posts are always spot on and I simply log on to site just to read your take on things.
You have read this series completely wrong. You will actually be surprised at how we take Memphis down in 5-6 games.
These two things are the same reason I think the Spurs will struggle...along with Manu looking very old at times. I still think the Spurs gut it out and win in 7 because I just don't trust the Grizzlies offense much either and I think the Spurs are playing at a high enough level defensively to make it happen.
Would think the Grizzlies have the right personal to defend all Spurs best players, while the Spurs may have trouble containing the Grizzlies inside. On paper the Grizzlies are built to beat the Spurs, however I think Pop has learned something from the '11 playoffs, and will have some strategies to both improve the offense and disrupt the Grizzlies. And this time the Spurs will grind out 4 wins to advance.
I think Spurs win if Kawhi has another big series. Prince isn't the defender he used to be. The Grizzlies are gonna concentrate on shutting down the big 3 and the role players are probably gonna choke/get stifled, so Kawhi's production could be huge.
i don't understand how picking the Grizz in 6 (thus expecting them to win in 6 and advance) DOESN'T mean you don't expect the Spurs to advance
i don't understand how picking the Grizz in 6 (thus expecting them to win in 6 and advance) DOESN'T mean you don't expect the Spurs to advance
Nothing about Pop in your 10 keys? IMO, he's #5 - he MUST RESIST the urge to play Bonner and Blair. If he gives Splitter a chance and doesn't have a short leash, I think Spurs in 6. Regardless of whether Tiago is soft, MEM will honor his pick and roll with TP/Manu. Nobody respects Bonner, and he will be left alone at the 3pt line to clog the lane for TP and TD. Spurs play better with TS - as much tall ball as possible please.
Parker plus Splitt as no1 and 2 is a good choice.
But toughness of our perimeter guys also is a must. And you said LJ that we do have bench. Well Grizz can make our bench non existent just because we have Neal who is soft and Bonner as well. That leaves us with Diaw and Gino as the only confident guys of the bench.
If neal cannot produce there still is Mills for sake. And can Corey be tough enough?
The spurs will be victorious...its their destiny
Timvp should be taken to the gallows for treason, tbh.
How about "creation" from Tony Parker as in "sharing the ball"? As in "creating shots for others"?
Too many possessions where he dribbles the ball 14 times Kobme style then throws up some .
Ball movement comes to a stop, other creators like Kwahi are supposed to go stand in the corner and watch the Parker show. It's bull .
Putting this off on Splitter as the #1 key is wrong. Splitts has done great -when the balls been moved around.
Pop's pretty much over Blair at this point. It's Bonner that we need to be concerned about. Spot minutes are OK depending on context, but that's it. None of this obligatory 10 minutes per game bull .
stay out of foul trouble for our big guys.
He knows what he's doing..
Let's hope this is a repeat of your 2012 WCF prediction tbh
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