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25%
In % wise what do you think the chance of us splitting is?
i think if Randolph scores less then 12 points in one of the games we split and come back and close it out in San Antonio,
25%
By definition isn't it 50%?
If they can get the offense going and make shots/play smart for one of the games then we have a good shot of beating the refs slanted call like they did last night. Just have to be really precise and clean down the stretch to not give them chances to make the calls against them to cost the game.
Since we are winning both games, the chance of splitting is low.
But seriously, although the almost come-back gives Grizzilies more confidence, it shows their hands ans give the Spurs more sense of urgency as well. So I think the chance is quite good since they don't have star player and explosive offense. If it were OKC or GSW, they would've already had the lead after Timmy got his 4th foul.
No, it depends on the probability of the action. I can line up a football 70 yards from the goal posts and give you two chances to make a field goal but your chances of making one are definitely not 50%. They're 0% or .00000000000000000000000000000001%
According to the Interociter, exactly 53.458% chance of a split.
5%
Hooray arbitrary numbers
With the nice break thrown in it bodes well since they ran out of gas last night. It's a decent amount of time but not enough to get rusty. Only one day off and a couple of practice days. I say the Spurs take Game 4.
Thank you and, tbh, I was kidding. I used to teach stat so I understand the nuances, but I enjoy saying that you are either going to do it or you aren't, so it's 50/50. Just being a smart ass. Sorry.
It'd probably say 80% "Roaracle" was supposed to be the toughest place to play and we beat them there 2x.
OKC had a chance to win both games in Memphis last round, I see no reason why we can't take 1 there, unless the game is officiated like the 2nd half of last nights game was. Just because we're playing there doesn't mean the same problems the Grizz have scoring the ball won't exist.
With 3 days rest, I'd look for them to come out aggressive like they did Game 3 of the warriors series & put a real stranglehold on this series.
80% you timid s
spurs will win saturday
they have 3 days off plus on day four they play at 6 not even earlier
mem could just cave in after game 3 loss
spurs need duncan to be big in quarter one so tp does not need to carry the load thru three quarters and the 4
would be nice if manu could carry the spurs in one quarter
manu usually plays better on 3 days rest also
Memories of the backdoor sweep by OKC must burn fiercely.
If only those memories were enough ...
We'll get one, most preferably the first one (series over, here we come South Beach)
Let's see if refs@MEM give the Spurs the FT favor they gave Grizz@SA
Holy crap, that's as close to a Manu complement as I've ever seen coming from ducks.
Nice!
According to the Interociter, exactly 53.458% chance of a split.
Sweep anyone?
0% chance.
The Spurs are going to sweep these es!!!
Not in real life.
The Milwaukee Bucks didn't have a 50% chance of beating the Heat in the playoffs, even though technically there were two teams playing against each other.
Yep, all things being equal. But based on the most recent emperical data, 0%. The data thus far from a terribly too small sample size suggests Spurs will win every game.
The simplest data driven model would be using the home record for Memphis this year. That is .78. So, the odds of a split based on that alone are 2 * (.78 * .22), which is equal to .34, or 34 %.
The Spurs driven corresponding model would be to use the Spurs road record this year. That is .56. Using that, the odds are 2 * (.56 * .44), = .49, or 49%.
A much better model takes into account the win% of both teams. One model that has been used for this is:
Spct = (S - S*M) / (S + M - 2*S*M)
Where Spct = percent spurs win a game,
S = spurs winning %
M = memphis winning %
When we plug in Spurs road record % and Memphis home record %, we get Spct = .26. So, the chances for a split are 2 * (.26 * .74), which = .38, or 38%.
Using the last model, the % Spurs win both in Memphis is .07. The % memphis wins both is .55.
Since Spurs have already won two in a row, one can conclude at this particular time the percent chance of Spurs winning in Memphis is a little greater than .26. But, these should be realistic numbers based solely on this years road/home records for the two teams.
Last edited by MVPCues; 05-22-2013 at 11:35 AM.
Correct me if I'm wrong...Commentators keep saying that the Grizzlies lost the first two games of the series against the Clippers and then won four straight. In that analysis, they leave out that Blake Griffin sprained his ankle pretty badly in practice and could barely do anything on the court after game 4. So basically they accomplished the major feat of beating the Clippers in games 5 and 6 with one of the Clipper's two best players severely injured. If I remember correctly, Griffin struggled to move, unlike Stephon Curry, who appeared to run up and down the court just fine and play a ton of minutes. Yet everytime we hear about the GS series, it's all about Curry's ankle costing them the series.
I know this is whinning, but I just felt like it had to be said.
Assuming there's a 45% chance of winning Game 3, and a 45% chance of winning Game 4, the probability of winning at least one of those games is 69.75%.
Or roughly 70%.
Either we will split or we won't.
Yes... at least one...you are including winning both. In my post, I calculated exactly a split.
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