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If TD, TP or MG error they will get unlimited chances. If TS, DG or KL error they will get pulled. This series will hinge on Pop's knees. Will they be strong or weak?
I think the Heat will double both starting bigs. Splitter is better off the PnR than West is, and if they can't stop Parker's passing, they'll have to double on the catch like they did tonight. I trust Splitter's passing, but it's hard to handle that type of doubling unless you expect it.
I understand your point about small ball. I think it'd be a bigger issue if Jack were still on the team. I think Diaw will be on James when Leonard isn't now. In the very least, Diaw should be pretty good at guarding Battier or Miller, allowing the Spurs to remain big when Miami goes small.
If TD, TP or MG error they will get unlimited chances. If TS, DG or KL error they will get pulled. This series will hinge on Pop's knees. Will they be strong or weak?
Bonner will be absolutely useless this series - last series, he forced Z-Bo out to the perimeter while playing serviceable D. All the Heat have to do is throw Lebron at the 4 and let a Mike Miller or Battier sit on Bonner. Though Kawhi can then guard Lebron at the 4 instead of the three.
Even if, outside of Green and to a lesser extent Bonner, it has been mostly shaky for months now, the Spurs three-point shooting is too respected for them to double the roll man, particularly at the start. And in the post, forget about it. Expect Bosh, who's the exact same size and strength as Splitter, to guard him straight up. I expect them to start out half doubling Duncan. If he punishes Haslem early and often, some form of a full on double is coming.
Diaw needs to punish Battier in the post the same way he did Green. The Spurs can't allow the Heat to get away with Battier on either him nor Splitter. I know the Heat will attempt to, though.
splitter can top 12 million a year if he plays big this series
tp is a lock for finals mvp though
The good thing is that save a couple of instances in that Memphis series, Pop has shown that he will use the hook on Bonner if he is not playing well. I don't mind giving Bonner a look. ...no one could have predicted the type of post season he has had.
I know Splitter's a great passer. I was just concerned with the pressure getting to him. It's just like how the Heat ball pressure will be much less effective against Parker than it was against Hill.
I agree about Bonner. He adds almost nothing to the lineup than Diaw or small-ball would unless he plays like he did against the Lakers. With Miami's lack of a post threat (and especially one as easy to outwit as Howard), Bonner's just a slow guard out there.
I think the Heat trust their speed and defensive rotations enough to double off everyone and then recover in time. Green and Leonard will probably have to hit some mildly contested threes to prevent them from doing so. I don't think Miami would double Splitter in the post unless he starts beating his man there. But I think they could double off Splitter's roll, since he's one of the most dangerous bigs in that situation in the league. I wouldn't be surprised to see Spoelstra go with Birdman on Duncan before doubling.
I agree with you on Diaw. An aggressive Diaw is still a tremendously hard player to guard. I think he could draw James if he beats Battier enough, which is only a good thing for the Spurs.
Granted, they'll play one game between now and Sunday, but the Heat are probably running on fumes and as you saw tonight, it takes a lot out of them to play their best defense, which is why they save it for when it's really needed. I know this is the Finals, but still; that level of every possession intensity for 6 or 7 games is damn near impossible. Plus, they needed to tweak a few things to attempt to knock the Pacers out of their rhythm and shake their confidence.
As far as Andersen on Duncan, he lacks the base strength to defend him straight up. You may well be right, in that they'll start off playing him straight up in that match-up, though.
Something I realized watching this series: When the Heat tried to go with the three guard + James lineup, the Pacers shockingly got away with West on Allen (I realize they have no bench/versatility, so they had to at least try it, but still). If he could pull if off, then I see no reason why Splitter couldn't. I know Splitter isn't going to play 40 mpg, I just don't want Pop to let them dictate the terms.
The Spurs also play a lot faster than Indiana does. If Miami struggles to lock down a team for a whole game, imagine how it would be when everyone is constantly running off screens.
If Miami loses the match-up battle like they did against the Pacers, the Spurs should win. The Spurs' bigs are much harder to defend because they can all pass and everyone except Splitter than hit from mid-range. If the Heat can't force Splitter to the bench, they'll be in for a lot of foul trouble.
As I alluded to, I'm not worried about the Heat forcing Splitter to the bench from a match-up perspective (foul trouble is a different story), I'm worried about Pop forcing Splitter to the bench and doing his usual match the other team immediately nonsense. You've got to at least attempt to dictate the terms first. If it's apparent that's not going to work, then you adjust, like the Heat did with Battier's minutes as the series wore on.
If Bonner sets the pick and hits his 3s get coming off a simple Manu/Tony trap then Miami would be reluctant to keep trapping
he definitely has value
but its a huge if as always but Bon Bon is having his best shooting post season of all time
only way Miami could counter that is too switch the pick and rolls since they have no interior defense
i doubt Lebron would be guarding Bonner so they have no good defenders to switch onto Tony
all of our bigs have value in this series really except Baynes
if Blair still has some ability to rebound his pick and roll ability would be useful
Miami has had a lot of success against the Spurs with their aggressive double teaming. That could be a HUGE problem in game 1, as the Spurs are likely to be very rusty. As the series goes on, I think the Spurs can adjust and pick Miami apart. I just hope it doesn't take 2 or 3 games to shake the rust off. I don't think the Spurs can afford to fall behind 2-0 in this series, even with the 2-3-2 format. They need at least one of the first two in Miami.
I agree, Tiago's play in this series is going to be key. He is one of the best passing big men in the game, and if he can keep his cool and find the open shooters, they should be fine. I think the pick and roll with Manu and Tiago should be huge in this series. Run pick and roll with those two and shooters out on the 3 point line and see how Miami handles it...
their lack of rim protection has to be the area we expose. thats what indiana did. they struggled because their offense was so damn inept. by the time they brought the ball upcourt, the shot clock would be down to about 17 seconds, and it looked like the guard with the ball would just stare down whoever was in the post, and there was no movement. no off-ball motion, the ball handler would just sit there and stare at the guy in the post being fronted. by the time they actually got some offense going, the shot clock would be down to 7-8 seconds and they would have to rush shots, and they had a ton of shot clock violations throughout the series. when they got into their offense earlier, or ran the pick and roll to clear space for hibbert, it worked wonders for them.
we typically run the pick and roll to free TP, but with the way Miami plays the PnR, we are going to have to have splitter and duncan roll hard to the rim and finish down low, while getting into our offense early so we can still hit our 2nd and 3rd options. defensively, we're going to give up some plays. they are going to space out our bigs the best they can, and lebron will do his thing. the best defense is a careful offense, as in no turnovers. when you start stringing turnovers, thats when miami really pulls away. we got away with it against memphis in game 3, but miami won't let us come back nearly as easily as memphis did. just limit turnovers and force them to play half court offense. they will still score plenty, but they are the miami heat. that will happen
Diaw might be more useful vs the Heat tbh
he might get bullied by Andersen
but I hope he plays smart and not scared. He has championship experience in Europe so I am confident he'll be ok
Minimum or bust this offseason tbh.
loved his post up against lebron! gotta love the elbow swinging too and then splash!!!
he held down the fort decently against Miamis starters with Bonner as his frontcourt guy
he actually had really good defensive plays vs Bosh and his verticality protecting the rim was huge
but unfourtanetely Bonner didnt even attempt to boxout anyone and Birdman would get tips
really a good game for Thiago tonite
No jumper, no comparison to West on offense.
The post against Bosh was as isolated as it gets, and it was a pure crap shot.
The post on Lebron was nice, but damn he makes easy shots look difficult.
It would be so nice to be able to use him against the MiAmi small lineup at the end of games. I hope he gets the chance in game two.
Solid game from Tiago. Can play better and maybe does in game 2.
He played very solid defense tonight.
Well done Tiago.
Horrible, embarrassing series for Splitter, tbh..
Just earn your money for one night, ..one night..
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