NBA: Bottomline: Former NBA Legends vs Advance Stat Geeks

[StrengthAndHonor]

So, whose opinion do you value more? Which side are you on if you're building a team? Assessing talent(s) in general?


Examples.

Former NBA Legends


The Bad

Jordan and Magic

Greatest players of their generation. Both have incompetent point of views when assessing talents and/or managing a team. See Jordan with the Wizards and Magic as head Coach. Also, see Magic as TV Analyst.


The Good

Larry Bird

Yup. Great coach and an even better GM. Look at the Pacers blueprint and that was all Bird with the exception of George Hill and Lance Stephenson signing.

Pat Riley

Great coach, great GM. Look at his blueprint with the Heat.

Jerry West

Yes, nuff said.


Advance Stat Nerds


The Good

Hollinger appears to be one of the very best in the business. I would actually take his side when it comes to picking a winner on any given series (great track record tbh) but his personnel moves and decision making skills are still up in the air. Gay for Prince was good but Prince has been pretty horrible in the playoffs. Letting Hollins may or may not be a good move. We'll see how he follows up though sources has it they will hire George Karl which is a lateral move.


Darryl Morey


Yep. Pillsbury doughboy has no actual basketball roots if im not mistaken. His hiring follows the recent trend of adding more advanced statistical-based analysis to the traditional use of qualitative scouting and basic statistics. Some solid moves so far with the exception of signing Lin.



To be determined...

Rich Cho. Made a smart decision when he was in Portland (Acquiring G. Wallace) but he has been pretty mediocre with the Cats so far (Ben Gordon, Ramon Sessions, Drafting Biyombo).

Presti

Great draft record (Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka), questionable management decision (Perkins, prioritizing Ibaka over Harden).


The bad

Billy King. Not necessarily an advance statistician but he's been vocal and is well known to have a group of advisers who base their decision(s) by advance stats.




Advance Stat guys are fairly new but if we were to pick the best of the best from each corner basically its:



Larry Bird, Pat Riley and Jerry West vs Hollinger, Darryl Morey and Sam Presti.

Worst would be:

Jordan vs Billy King

[midnightpulp]

Like any stat, advanced stats should be used in conjunction with an objective as possible "eye test." Ultimate point, however, is that advanced stats are far, far superior to per game stats and usually more substantial than the opinions of "basketball people," whose point-of-views are entirely based on the qualitative, subjective, and invoke a great deal of cliche ("He has 'killer instinct' and the 'clutch gene,' so I want him taking that shot, even if he's triple teamed." "His will to win is indomitable." "He's an inspirational leader.")

[AchillesHeel]

Bill Russell was a HC too and won 2 les

[Koolaid_Man]

s all over the PER argument

http://skepticalsports.com/?tag=per

[StrengthAndHonor]

Bill Russell was a HC too and won 2 les

I guess as far as coaching goes, I can't make a comparison. Its strictly personnel moves and assessment of talents.


I'm really partial to the older generation's way when it comes to building a winning team and the evaluation of talent. It just irks me when people say, "oh well, he also drafted this player and said this, so your point is invalid" (Not you Mid btw)


Bird was probably the last player to do it his way. Look at the roster he constructed in Indiana, I don't want to overrate them but they are built very well. Bird believed in hard work, hustle and sharing the ball and that trademark was printed in Indiana.


Jerry West is Golden States head consultant. He was behind the Monta Ellis for Bogut trade. Despite constant rumblings from Warriors fans to keep Monta and trade then the injury bug Stephen Curry (evidently by booing their owner on the night Mullin's jersey was retired) West went with his instincts and traded Ellis.


My problem with STATS guys is they value sabametric principles to run their team far too much and without having any hardwood background, they overlook intangibles. They feel like the can just plug a player and replace (See Martin for Harden). I know the samples are too small right now, but given a chance, between actual playing experience and unrefutable metrics, I can't entrust winning or evaluation of talents based on numbers alone.

[midnightpulp]

s all over the PER argument

http://skepticalsports.com/?tag=per

Which is actually not a good thing for Kobe fan. Quote from the article:

"As described by David Berri, PER is well-known to reward inefficient shooting.

For Dennis Rodman’s case—as someone who took very few shots, good or bad— the necessary converse of this is even more significant: since PER is a comparative statistic (even directly adjusted by league averages), players who don’t take a lot of shots are punished.

Structurally, PER favors shooting"

From that, I gather whatever metric the writer is developing will probably undervalue Kobe more than PER does.

[HarlemHeat37]

Winning the genetic lottery doesn't make you intelligent..

Most NBA players would be working at McDonald's if they didn't win the genetic lottery..being physically gifted at sports doesn't make you more capable of analyzing and understanding a play, tbh..

If you provided game tape for an intelligent man that has followed and played the sport of basketball his entire life, he could analyze and assess the play better than Monta Ellis, tbh..having rare, unhuman athleticism doesn't make you capable of analyzing a basketball game..most NBA players(since most of them are stupid) are enamoured with flash and simplicity, just like any other idiot..

There are intelligent people in the NBA, obviously, but certainly not imbeciles that can barely speak English like Magic Johnson..

[Koolaid_Man]

just shows it's all BS and cannot determine a players worth and impact...Bron has good PER because their are no great defenders in the league like when Kobe was in his prime

[HarlemHeat37]

And more importantly, advanced stats advocates will actually explain their arguments and elaborate, while "NBA people" provide simple logic, such as "more rings" and "will to win" and anything involving flashy scoring ability..

[midnightpulp]

just shows it's all BS and cannot determine a players worth and impact...Bron has good PER because their are no great defenders in the league like when Kobe was in his prime

Even then, PER is still more valuable than the PPG, which is the stat you worship.

In any event, Kool, thanks for that article. I actually like the author and agree with his general sentiment. Especially this quote, which you should heed:

...points per game—the Flat Earth of basketball valuation metrics.

to this guy for equating PPG to the scientific dark ages.

[Koolaid_Man]

Even then, PER is still more valuable than the PPG, which is the stat you worship.

In any event, Kool, thanks for that article. I actually like the author and agree with his general sentiment. Especially this quote, which you should heed:

...points per game—the Flat Earth of basketball valuation metrics.

to this guy for equating PPG to the scientific dark ages.

yep..know what you mean...so let's throw out scoring the hockey puck, touchdowns in football are meaningless, forget about the soccer goals, or the holy grail of baseball, Homeruns and RBI's PPG in any sport is meaningless

[StrengthAndHonor]

And more importantly, advanced stats advocates will actually explain their arguments and elaborate, while "NBA people" provide simple logic, such as "more rings" and "will to win" and anything involving flashy scoring ability..

But isn't this the bottom line? When managing a team, that's the goal, right? Advance stats will give you reasoning, sure but depending on it alone to make decisions for you is probably the wrong way.

This is not to say, statistics are irrelevant, they are. Everyone uses it but I just don't think its a holy grail.

[midnightpulp]

yep..know what you mean...so let's throw out scoring the hockey puck, touchdowns in football are meaningless, forget about the soccer goals, or the holy grail of baseball, Homeruns and RBI's PPG in any sport is meaningless

You can't argue with the results:



PER and the author's own advanced metrics have more predictive validity than PPG.

[HarlemHeat37]

But isn't this the bottom line? When managing a team, that's the goal, right? Advance stats will give you reasoning, sure but depending on it alone to make decisions for you is probably the wrong way.

This is not to say, statistics are irrelevant, they are. Everyone uses it but I just don't think its a holy grail.

Sure, but the best advanced stats people involved with the NBA don't stubbornly push their stats and ignore the peripheral aspects of basketball..

The only guys that do that are Dave Berri and his disciples, and they're widely criticized in the stats community..maybe Hollinger, but he isn't that bad at it IMO..

If you include Magic Johnson in your discussions on analyzing plays/teams, what exactly is he going to contribute, IYO?.

[Rogue]

sports is only meaningful to those who make livings in this industry. People do it for fun but over the past century or so, sports has been turned into a huge business and has brought considerable wealth to thousands of s, who would've otherwise been earning minimum salaies at a harbor or quarry like their grandparents did

[StrengthAndHonor]

Sure, but the best advanced stats people involved with the NBA don't stubbornly push their stats and ignore the peripheral aspects of basketball..

The only guys that do that are Dave Berri and his disciples, and they're widely criticized in the stats community..maybe Hollinger, but he isn't that bad at it IMO..

If you include Magic Johnson in your discussions on analyzing plays/teams, what exactly is he going to contribute, IYO?.

I guess we'll see. The stats guys are far too young in the game.

Magic honestly doesn't contribute anything of value

A good scenario is this, I know its extreme but play with the idea for a minute.

Hollinger or Presti gets to build their team from 1-12. They get to make a decision strictly based on numbers/PER along with the players position and measurements.(College players)



Bird or West gets to do the same thing, build from scratch and pick all 12 players. Without looking at each players stats and assessment is based on actual camp workout. Who do you think builds a better team?

Again, I know its extreme but in some ways stats and the typical eye test works the same way and this is why people always have never ending arguments about it.

Lebrons game 2 for one is a good example. Typical eye test suggests he wasn't impressive but statistics advised otherwise. Lebron either scored or assistes 25 points of Miami's 30 point explosion in Game 2. This doesn't even include that huge defensive effort against Splitter. On the other side of the coin, ill give you a larger sample. Rondo is statistically impressive. Stats showed he was doing everything in 2013, but in reality he was hurting his team in certain stretches by being ball dominant. His assist were inflated and in some cases presents small value since the offense didn't flow as well. It was not a.coincidence the Celtics losing streak ended the day Rondo went down (Sample is for thisnyear only*)

[HarlemHeat37]

You chose some of the most intelligent people involved in the NBA, though..

Steve Kerr, for example, seems like an intelligent guy, and he has said that if he gets another NBA front office job, he's going to hire Zach Lowe, despite Lowe not being a pro athlete..

Like I said, there are many people associated with the NBA that are intelligent and would succeed in other professions that require exerting brain usage..you chose some of these people for your examples..however, the majority of NBA people are not intelligent, which is my point..

[Rogue]

Jews can succeed almost everywhere no matter it's the financial sector, the politics or even the entertainment industry. But the overall brain level of athletes (sans chess and bridge card players, of course, and maybe snooker players as well) is much lower than people who work and making their livings in other businesses. s are lucky enough that they earn 100 times the median income of american workers without having even average level brains. People still worship muscles more often than brains in the modern society, which bemuses and depresses me

[Slutter McGee]

yep..know what you mean...so let's throw out scoring the hockey puck, touchdowns in football are meaningless, forget about the soccer goals, or the holy grail of baseball, Homeruns and RBI's PPG in any sport is meaningless

I've read all your trolling posts and ty takes, but this is the dumbest ing thing I have seen. Individual PPG in basketball is the third dumbest stat in the sports world outside of RBI and Batting Average. The relative rarity of soccer and hockey goals makes the amount of attempts have a far less negative impact on the statistic. You can't even compare baseball because a player is given a set number of opportunities to score. Having ty ass Hamilton in the lineup doesn't negatively impact the other eight players individual performance. Individual touchdowns is completely over-rated as well but still doesn't compare to the stupidity of PPG. How many college and NFL teams use different sets in goal-line situations which use specific personnel designed for a touchdown, whereas some of the best players are not involved. Everyone with half a ing brain knows RBI is the dumbest measure of ability ever designed, and even home runs can be negated if a player strikes out every other at bat. Granted basketball is not baseball. Its not possible to quantify almost every aspect of the game. But that doesn't mean that you aren't a ing moron for believing the dumbest basketball stat "taken by itself" actually has much value other than to recognize those who probably chuck the most. Goddamn moron.