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Heat win tonight. Heat choke in game 7.
it is written. Water and bread today. All kinds of Thursday.
-Welp, here we are. One win away. 1. It's not the world's greatest situation because winning another road game in Miami might be the most difficult thing the Spurs have ever tried to do -- but I can't complain at all. Before the series, if you tell me the Spurs would take a 3-2 lead into Miami, I'd be elated. (Obviously, since Heat in 5, etc, etc.)
-This underdog role is so different emotionally than the previous four championships (). At no point in the past did I ever feel like the Spurs were anything but the favorites in the 1999, 2003, 2005 and 2007 Finals. This series, however, I've never thought the percentages made the Spurs the favorites -- and I still don't heading into Game 6.
-The basic math is simple: If the Heat have a 70% chance of winning tonight (Vegas thinks their chances are better than that) and an 80% chance of winning Game 7 (that's probably an understatement), that gives Miami a 56% chance to win the championship. Even with this slightly homer view (IMO, at least), the Spurs are still sitting at 44%. That's a whole lot better than the 30% I gave them when the series started ....... but it's still a loooooooooooong way away from gassing up the riverboats.
-I really think tonight is the game the Spurs have to win if they're going to come out on top. A road team hasn't won a Game 7 in the Finals in 35 years (the same holds true for baseball, FWIW). I don't think that's a fluke. Winning a road Game 7 is extremely difficult. The emotion and the energy is just too much for the road team to overcome. One example is Game 6 against the Thunder last year -- which was basically OKC's Game 7. That game was damn near impossible for the Spurs to win, especially when you factor in the refs getting swept away in the emotion. Another example is when the Spurs won Game 7 back in 2005 against the Pistons. Detroit played better for a majority of that game ... but even that historically hardnosed, mentally tough team cracked as the AT&T Center erupted down the stretch.
-So yeah, Pop has to pull out all the stops tonight. Minute limits be damned. Pop can't factor in that there is another game in two days.
-All I want tonight is for the Spurs to keep it close and give themselves a chance. If they are within striking distance down the stretch, that's all I can ask for at this point. Keep it close and fight for it.
-I expect some pretty obvious adjustments from the Heat. First of all, Miller will be replaced in the starting lineup. I could see Miami going with Ray Allen, Shane Battier or even Norris Cole (if they think Cole is a Ginobili stopper). Most likely Allen ... with Battier being the other possibility. They won't switch screens as much -- if at all. They will also be driving to the hoop as much as humanly possible.
-Could Miami go back to a big lineup? I guess it's possible. Starting Haslem next to Bosh would be somewhat surprising. Does Pop respond by taking Ginobili out of the starting lineup? I hope not. That worked too well last game. Leonard can guard Haslem to start the halves and then Pop can just mix in bigger lineups off the bench.
-I'm excited/scared/nervous right now. I can only imagine what the players are feeling.
-The big difference in Miami will be the Heat's role players playing much better. Outside of Allen, they all pretty much sucked in San Antonio. The Spurs have to hope that not all of them go off in these upcoming games (or game).
-As far as the Spurs are concerned, it's down to execution. Limit turnovers, crash the glass and execute the game plan. That's what this series has boiled down to.
-prayingdog.jpg, vomit.gif, dannyferrydivingontheground.jpg, one.png
-It's going to take the best performance of the season to get this done. I believe they have it in 'em.
1.
Believe.
Heat win tonight. Heat choke in game 7.
it is written. Water and bread today. All kinds of Thursday.
timvp trying too hard now imo
I just cant imagine the Spurs losing the Championship at this point.
Frankly as a Spurs fan I'm not even thinking past tonight. This is our moment. Once you get to 3 wins in the Finals everything changes. Tim, Tony and Manu are going to will this team to victory tonight. All the pressure is on Miami. WE are going to win tonight. I feel it.
To me, the fact that in MIA blowouts of SA, SA has essentially been in it late into the third quarter only to have a 5-8 minute stretch derail everything bodes somewhat well. SA's blowouts of MIA have pretty much been wire-to-wire leads with a few pushes by MIA to make you sweat.
Also, it's interesting to note that MIA's big 3 seemingly has the least margin for error. Somewhat surprising. If Wade goes back to hobble-Wade instead of Jordan-Wade and/or Bosh plays soft, it might be tough for MIA to overcome. Their big 3 has put in some super human combined numbers in recent games.
Rebound, Rebound. Control turnovers. If you do that, you will be in a position that you were in before, even though they ended in blowouts.
all of that.
I don't have much faith in the league, none in Stern, but I got faith in the Spurs. I gotta believe, I know the guys will give their all for what's left. We've come this far to be scared now.
Spurs are finna get chin checked. Dem Heats are gonna expose that glass jaw and break that Islanders heart. It's some cat and mouse . The cat is just toying with their mousy ass before tearing that up. The mouse thinks it's going to get away but them BOOM! The claw is dropped and the heart explodes.
In past years, I would have been a nervous wreck on this day. This year, I've found some odd calm -- likely based on the fact that I agree that the Spurs aren't the favorite here. If you had told me in April that this team would have a 3-2 lead in the Finals against the Heat going back to Miami and that it's worst case scenario for this season was a road loss in Game 7 of the NBA Finals to the Super Friends, I would have thought you were crazy -- not because I didn't believe in the Spurs, but because there were plenty of reasons to believe that the Spurs could play their very best basketball and still come up short against the star-laden Heat. To be here now is a remarkable outcome for the Spurs.
Now win this .
1.
Hi timvp.
tomhankssavingprivateryanshakinghand.gif
I've been pretty down right accurate with my gut feelings on games before they start. From golden state, to the grizzlies and now with the heat. I would say game 1 was the only one i had no feeling towards. I didn't know what to expect.
But yeah Spurs are winning it tonight. It will finally be a close game. It will be won on a last second miss by the Heat (just like in 1999 when sprewell missed at the buzzer)
FWIW, ESPN Forecast looks quite different.
According to them, Spurs are still underdogs to win Game 6 tonight (MIA 54%-SAS 46%) and Game 7 (MIA 57%-SAS 43%), but the overall series forecast after game 5 is:
SAS 69%
MIA 31%
That's just timvp doing timvp things. All stats show Spurs as favorites (the game 3 win, the 3-2 series lead, the stat you posted..). Sure they could lose, but that does not mean they are statistically still underdogs at this point.
nah for real though the bball gods won't let the Spurs lose. It's their destiny to be champions.
You write that up all by yourself?
Nobody told me you were up to multi-syllabic words!
timvp, you mean you believe we have a 30% chance of having that great performance, right?
Slim Charles, you sentimental mother er.
I have a good feeling about this.
Nobody told you because don't nobody know who you are. It's nothing against the Spurs, the King just likes drama. King just trying to get paid.
44 you say?
I like those odds.
Lol, did you think the Heat were doing the same thing to the Mavericks in the 2011 Finals, too, when Dallas took a 3-2 series lead to Miami?
Why? Did I post about Dallas? They were just started out, rook. They went to the finals year one. The NBA is theirs now. Lebron set that up from day one of the season. He knew he wanted Tim. He wants to rip his heart out because of '07.Lol, did you think the Heat were doing the same thing to the Mavericks in the 2011 Finals, too, when Dallas took a 3-2 series lead to Miami?
You ever go to the movies? The hero ALWAYS looks like he's about to lose. The world is crashing down and nothing is going right... Then all of a sudden the villain get's caught slippin'. Hero starts beatin' that ass and it's over. Good night. He just wants to build up the 3 and rip their hearts out. King, Flash and that other guy bout to eat roasted heart for dinner on Thursday.
spurs cant let allen and miller open
their 3s (and 4 point plays!!!) hurt more than anything lebron does
combine this with a bunch of calls and non-calls in favor of the heat and it's suddenly a blowout in the span of 3 mins
-Welp, here we are. One win away. 1. It's not the world's greatest situation because winning another road game in Miami might be the most difficult thing the Spurs have ever tried to do -- but I can't complain at all. Before the series, if you tell me the Spurs would take a 3-2 lead into Miami, I'd be elated. (Obviously, since Heat in 5, etc, etc.)
-This underdog role is so different emotionally than the previous four championships (
-The basic math is simple: If the Heat have a 70% chance of winning tonight (Vegas thinks their chances are better than that) and an 80% chance of winning Game 7 (that's probably an understatement), that gives Miami a 56% chance to win the championship. Even with this slightly homer view (IMO, at least), the Spurs are still sitting at 44%. That's a whole lot better than the 30% I gave them when the series started ....... but it's still a loooooooooooong way away from gassing up the riverboats.
......
-prayingdog.jpg, vomit.gif, dannyferrydivingontheground.jpg, one.png
-It's going to take the best performance of the season to get this done. I believe they have it in 'em.
1.
Believe.
Logic says no my heart says they have a shot.
This is so completely different than any other final etc.
So close yet so far.
Yikes this may be the most nervous I've ever been before a game ever!!!
There are also other movies. Movies in which the villain is heavily favored to win, the hero is the underdog, but then the hero surprisingly wins the opening round, then takes the lead and wins in a shocking victory over the villain, who people had thought would win all along. Sound familiar?
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