The ONE key to losing Game 6 (and winning Game 7)

[GSH]

I know it's easier to just say "Manu sucks", or "we missed free throws". But, ultimately, it was the Spurs style of play in the second half that kept the game from being a blowout, and allowed the Heat to hang around.

The Spurs were the #1 team in the league in assists this year. They didn't get all those assists because guys were making shots. They got them because they played a style of basketball that got guys good looks that they could make. They averaged 25 AST per game for the season, and 64% of all their FG's were assisted. Last night, they had 13 assists on 37 FG's, for a 35% assist rate. Worse, they got 8 of those assist in the first half, and two in the first two minutes of OT. That means that in 27 minutes of the second half, and OT, the Spurs made just 3 assisted baskets.

So even while the Spurs were piling up that 10-point advantage in the third quarter, they weren't playing the style of basketball that got them here - the style that won Games 3 and 5 so decisively. And it played right into the Heat's hands. By the second half of the fourth quarter, the Spurs had seemingly lost all sight of ball movement, and of guys moving without the ball.

The Spurs did all the other things they needed to do to win last night. They out-rebounded the Heat. They only had 11 turnovers in regulation, and just 3 in the second half. They annihilated the Heat in the paint, 60-36. And they even had more fast break points than the Heat (11-5). Normally, all of those things would add up to a Spurs win. I know that some people are looking at the poor 3-point percentage, but that's a bit misleading because a number of those shots were desperation heaves as the shot clock ran down. The shooters got the ball dumped on them, and had no choice but throw one up.

Once the ball quits swinging, the Heat's half-court defense becomes very, very formidable. And the one big lesson that should have been learned last night is that Miami is not going to give an open look to a shooter who has been virtually stationary for the entire possession. When they know exactly where those guys are going to be, they are very good at closing out.

I talked about this before Game 5. The Heat's aggressive, trapping defense requires that guys move without the ball, to give the ball handler angles to pass away from the pressure. They did that in Game 5, and the result was a 60% shooting night. When they don't do that, when they leave two guys camped in the corners while the ball handler tries to go 1-on-2 with the Heat's trapping defenders, they wind up being forced to take bad shots at the end of the clock. Why? Because the best way to beat the trap is to pass out of it early. But that requires having good passing options and angles.

A lot of the turnovers is on Manu, and the bench players. But if you re-watch the second half, you're going to see one guy dribbling the ball while the others stand and wait. Over and over. The Spurs almost won the game that way, anyway. But ultimately, it was the style of play, and not the individual missed shots that betrayed them. You only get assists when guys make shots. But guys make shots when you get them decent looks. Against the Heat, that is going to require a lot more ball movement, and bodies moving without the ball.

The Spurs will have to be compe ive in every phase of their game. But if the assist totals in Game 7 look anything like Game 6 (Spurs 13, Heat 23) I think the Heat will win it going away. If the Spurs go back to their ball-movement offense, like they did in Game 5, I think they can still win it by double digits.

[crc21209]

Great thread. I looked at the stats last night and saw the Spurs only had 13 assists to Miami's 23. There is no way in Miami should EVER have more assists than the Spurs. The Spurs stopped moving the ball and moving people. You're absolutely right. One guy had the ball and overdribbled while everyone else stood around and watched. They need to back to moving bodies and the ball in order to be successful. This easily has to be one of the main points going into tomorrows game.

1. Don't turn the ball over.
2. Move the ball.
3. Stay on the shooters.

[GSH]

Good ball movement gets the Spurs much better looks. But it will also help keep the turnovers down. Playing hero ball becomes harder as the game wears on, and players get tired. Once the Spurs settled into that mode, the Heat knew they just had to wrestle with Tim off the ball to deny the inlet pass. I'm sure I could have gotten a lot more response by just blaming the loss on Tim, for only scoring 5 points in the second half.

[ginobilized]

I'm starting to re-BELIEVE!
Thanks for the insight

[HemisfairArena]

Not playing Manu gives us the best chance to win game 7.

[m33p0]

danny green likes to sneak away when his defender is caught ball watching. but since he is now a marked man it'll be harder. he still has to find ways to free himself.

any takes on why the spurs went away from this in the second half? could it be because the team focused too much on TD that it threw them out of rhythm somehow?

[m33p0]

Not playing Manu gives us the best chance to win game 7.

and who would rather have as secondary ballhandler, might i ask.

[GrandeDavid]

I noticed the low assist total as well. However, that low total is a credit to Miami's good defense.

[Fabbs]

http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=215068
Ball Movement vs Hero Ball. It's a key.

[ducks]

need 5 players in double figures
no one is going to go over 30

[HemisfairArena]

and who would rather have as secondary ballhandler, might i ask.

Anyone who doesnt turn the ball over 8 times

[m33p0]

Anyone who doesnt turn the ball over 8 times

name. one.

[Fabbs]

and who would rather have as secondary ballhandler, might i ask.

Kawhii should get way more touches and earlier in the 24 second clock. Not just desperate dump offs by Parker after he has dribbled Kobme style for 18 seconds.
Ks decision making has been superb.

[Jumi]

This man speaks the truth!!

[HemisfairArena]

name. one.

Name one? Neal. Didnt Neal and Green just light things up together in this series? Manu played 35 minutes...he turned the ball over 8 times. Neal played 24 minutes and turned it over 1 time. Neal also had a better +/-.

[m33p0]

Kawhii should get way more touches and earlier in the 24 second clock. Not just desperate dump offs by Parker after he has dribbled Kobme style for 18 seconds.
Ks decision making has been superb.

i don't know. he works best off the ball. and him with the ball takes him away from the rebounding action where he's been superb. he's like the hidden knife no one expects.

[m33p0]

Name one? Neal. Didnt Neal and Green just light things up together in this series? Manu played 35 minutes...he turned the ball over 8 times. Neal played 24 minutes and turned it over 1 time. Neal also had a better +/-.

green, when trapped only has one move and that is to drive to the basket. and gary neal is awful when he has to dribble more than 10 times.

and "lighting it up" is a product of good shooting not ballhandling.

[ballhog]

Would like to see Leonard post up smaller guys more.

[HemisfairArena]

green, when trapped only has one move and that is to drive to the basket. and gary neal is awful when he has to dribble more than 10 times.

and "lighting it up" is a product of good shooting not ballhandling.

Manu only has one gear right now...turnover. I'll take Neal not turning the ball over and barely dribbling than Manu costing us the game forcing the issue and turning the ball over and missing shots.

[m33p0]

Manu only has one gear right now...turnover. I'll take Neal not turning the ball over and barely dribbling than Manu costing us the game forcing the issue and turning the ball over and missing shots.

i understand your sentiment coz i'm feeling that pain, too. but neither neal nor green is the answer. they work best off the ball. they are the ones parker and manu has to pass to to make 3s. making them ballhandlers will take that away.

i don't need manu to be great in game 7. i want him to simplify his game and be the release valve that tony needs.

[m33p0]

Would like to see Leonard post up smaller guys more.

he's been successful posting up lebron. i'd like to see some more of that, too.

[HemisfairArena]

i understand your sentiment coz i'm feeling that pain, too. but neither neal nor green is the answer. they work best off the ball. they are the ones parker and manu has to pass to to make 3s. making them ballhandlers will take that away.

i don't need manu to be great in game 7. i want him to simplify his game and be the release valve that tony needs.

I've said the same thing. When posters where asking for what Manu needs to average...the bulk of them said 15 points or more...7 assists or more...ect..

My response was 10 points 3-4 assists on 40%+ shooting and 2 or less tournovers...thats it. Thats all I'm asking.

[m33p0]

I've said the same thing. When posters where asking for what Manu needs to average...the bulk of them said 15 points or more...7 assists or more...ect..

My response was 10 points 3-4 assists on 40%+ shooting and 2 or less tournovers...thats it. Thats all I'm asking.

[Kidd K]

I have to point this out about the rebounding and turnovers: only one of our last three games was a good rebounding game and a good turnover game.

And the one good game we had was negated by Ginobili. We were lucky to get game 5 with 60% shooting, and we had all that momentum for game 6. . .and now it's gone.

As always, I want the Spurs to win, BUT. . .being an objective viewer, I have to say the following is the most likely:

The Spurs will turn the ball over more than last night. They have every game except game 1, and the last 2 before that were our worst turnover games of the series. Also our worst two rebounding games.

The Spurs will likely not rebound that well again, but it's possible.

The Spurs will again shoot poorly from three. In fact, most of their jumpers will probably miss because of the increased tension.

Duncan won't play as well (can still play good, but we won't get another efficient 30 from him).

Ginobili actually is more likely to suck again than be good again. I said this after game 5 too (it was an unpopular opinion, but look what happened). Ginobili hadn't posted back to back "good" games since early March, and it was against lottery teams. He's only had an above average game (using GameScore stat) 20% of the time this postseason. . .including game 5, but before game 6. In other words, the odds of Ginobili playing below average is about 80%, and playing above average (not even "good") is less than 20%.

And lastly, the by FAR biggest thing: The refs actually seemed to favor the Spurs at times last night. If I was a Heat fan I would've been pissed. Multiple times I thought "holy I can't believe they didn't call that on us". That will NOT happen again.

[Fabbs]

i don't know. he works best off the ball. and him with the ball takes him away from the rebounding action where he's been superb. he's like the hidden knife no one expects.

mix it up is what I'm saying. 6-7 maybe even 10 trips up the floor out of 80 is not gonna throw Kawhiis rebounding etc off.
It's gonna make the Spurs much harder to defend.
Kawhii is also good at creating shots for others.

Certainly would have been better then Parkers Kobme act and Ginobilis MVPHeat performance.

Ad-just-ments. It's what true legit HOF coaches make.