First off, I have no respect for the HOF. They consistently put in flashy players over good players. Recently I've heard rumors that Tracy McGrady may eventually get into the HOF. As CRAZY as this sounds, I wouldn't be surprised if this actually ended up happening. Nor would I be surprised if Yao Ming, who had a mediocre career after being taken #1 overall, got in, just because he was the best 7'6 guy ever (because Shawn Bradley SUCKED.)
That said, I think Manu will get in no matter what. Here's why: Because Manu is a very notorious player. Nororious for what you ask? Three things. 1) Flopping. 2) The euro-step. 3) compe iveness. No matter what, NBA fans are always going to remember Manu Ginobili for these three things, and so he'll always be a resonating presence on peoples minds when they see these things in the future. When people see James Harden do the euro-step, they'll credit Ginobili for first demonstrating it's effectiveness. When they see someone flop, "Ugh, he sold it worse than Ginobili!" And when they see someone give it their all on every play, or see someone do something crazy (like swatting a bat from mid-air), they'll think of Ginobili.
Getting in the HOF is about being popular. And because Manu is so notorious, he'll get in for sure.