Tim Duncan, possibly the all time defensive rating leader when season's over

[Kidd K]

Defensive rating being points given up per 100 possessions (irrelevant of pace, so it's not "fewest points against per game", which favors very slow paced teams and sometimes makes them seem better than they really are). So it's truly an accurate reflection of how hard it is to score against a Duncan team when he's on the floor.

Current leader: Gar Heard at 95.30

Duncan now: 2nd place at 95.35 (he actually slipped down from a very comfortable 1st place because of the last handful of seasons team shift from defensive focus and from getting older)

Last year Duncan has a defensive rating of 95 (led NBA), which let him creep up a little, and this year he has one of 93. If he continues to post a defensive rating of just 94 (not 93), and plays 60 of the remaining 68 games, he will surpass Gar Heard by and reclaim 1st.

Whether he has 1st or 2nd is impressive either way, but being 1st would be a tremendous notch on his belt for his career.

David Robinson is 4th btw at 95.65 (very impressive considering the offensive era he played in)

Gar Heard retired at 31 and played less than half the minutes of Duncan, so his stats weren't pulled down any because of aging game like Duncan's has.

[HarlemHeat37]

I don't like comparing career advanced stats since they're misleading, tbh..

Simple advanced stats like offensive/defensive rating, PER, etc should be compared by the player in question's individual rankings for every particular season IMO..

Duncan's rankings are pretty crazy, tbh..

1998- 2nd
1999- 3rd
2000- 3rd
2001- 4th
2002- 3rd
2003- 2nd
2004- 2nd
2005- 1st
2006- 1st
2007- 1st

Past prime Duncan
2008- 2nd
2009- 6th
2010- 7th
2013- 1st

His defensive RAPM numbers are even better IIRC..

It's too bad defense was an afterthought when ranking players until the past 2 years..as I've been saying the past few years, as advanced stats continue to grow in prominence, certain players' legacies will take a hit and others will receive more credit, and Duncan will be part of the latter, tbh..

[Kidd K]

I don't think it's very misleading a stat. Look at the all time list. There are no bad defenders on the list whatsoever.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/...tg_career.html

You have some weird names on there because they didn't have long or overly impressive careers, but there are no bad players there. It's very reflective of who's really been impacting the game extensively on defense. The only thing bad about career advanced stats is that it penalizes players who play to an old age while rewarding guys who duck out early.

Kareem for example used to be the all time defensive rating leader but he played so long that he slipped WAY down the list from 1st to 24th due to all the years he played with the Showtime Lakers, a team not exactly known for it's defensive effort.


You make a good point though about it being a good idea to compare guys to their eras (or seasons). It's a good way to see how impactful a guy really was (compared to his peers), but that becomes a more intricate argument where you'll lose most people's interest. Just looking at the all time list is what will matter to most people. Everyone will naturally tune out old era stats like they do with baseball batting average, NBA rebounds, and other such stats which were much easier to get in the past than they are now.

[SsKSpurs21]

how does this guy not have a DPOY!

[BillMc]

how does this guy not have a DPOY!

He and Bowen split the "Spur" votes a lot of years, and by the time Bruce was gone our defense wasn't that great, and Timmy was somewhat "old news." Sports writers wanted to vote for fresh blood like Dwight and Fat Gasol. Fresh blood is always "news."

[Drom John]

Also, Duncan is not a flashy defender, merely fundamentally efficient. That means fewer ESPN highlights, and highlights win DPOY votes.

That said, 5th on the active list, Manu Ginobili. Parker is 29th.

Hmm,
Duncan's best year, Ben Wallace had the best ever year, 2003-2004.
Duncan's 2nd best year, David Robinson had the third best ever year, 1998-1999.
I'd also discount the league's best 2011-2013 by the lack of playing time.
That still leaves 2004-2007.

[spurraider21]

defensive rating is an estimate though. its hard to really gauge who was responsible for a score. even if Duncan's man didn't score, its possible he wasn't there on a rotation which led to a bucket for another player, which wouldn't affect his d-rating since it wasn't "his man."

as i've mentioned in another thread, Carlos Boozer regularly led the Bulls in defensive rating since he's gotten there (i think Noah might have once, but its typically been Boozer)

[Obstructed_View]

Simple advanced stats like offensive/defensive rating, PER, etc should be compared by the player in question's individual rankings for every particular season IMO..

Duncan's rankings are pretty crazy, tbh..

1998- 2nd
1999- 3rd
2000- 3rd
2001- 4th
2002- 3rd
2003- 2nd
2004- 2nd
2005- 1st
2006- 1st
2007- 1st

Past prime Duncan
2008- 2nd
2009- 6th
2010- 7th
2013- 1st

Thank you, Dejuan Blair.

[Chinook]

Individual defensive rating as told by Basketball Reference is not a simple stat at all. Its formula is as complicated as those for PER and win-shares. 82games also uses a stat called defensive efficiency, which is actually the simple formula of points allowed per 100 possessions. I can't say how Duncan fairs with stat throughout his career, but I can say that there's a definite difference between then with the players this year. For example, Leonard is leading the ran in DRtg this season, but he's actually not that close in DEff.

[Captivus]

This kind of stats always have some degree of mistake.
Check Defensive Win Shares, Duncan is 4th. Maybe is correct, maybe not.

I think now that the teams have this new tech following players eventually more accurate stats would show who really is the best defender.
They would be able to see how many points a players allows if he is in less than 2 feet away from the guy with the ball...or some crazy thing like that. Better stats for player at the post, etc.

As of now, advance stats is all we have.

I do want to say, that steals and blocks should count more in the current ratings, IMO.

[Phenomanul]

Ginobili is ranked as one of the most defensive oriented guards on that list (over 80 spots higher than Bruce Bowen)... and before anyone credits Duncan or Bowen for the effect, it didn't have the same pull on Parker's ranking who actually played more minutes with both of them.

[Phenomanul]

Ginobili's Defensive Rating vs. some "prominent" defensive oriented perimeter players...

Rank___Player_______________Rating

35_____Manu Ginobili_____________99.61
56_____Rajon Rondo____________101.00
80_____Scottie Pippen___________101.51
94_____LeBron James___________101.90
96_____Jason Kidd______________102.00
107____Bruce Bowen____________102.25
115____Paul Pierce_____________102.39
131____Michael Jordan__________102.83
141____Dwyane Wade___________103.14
146____Gerald Wallace__________103.23
170____Tracy McGrady__________103.82
182____Tony Parker____________104.05
192____Chris Paul______________104.21
214____Magic Johnson__________104.48
231____Shane Battier___________104.73
248____Kobe Bryant____________105.01 How many All-NBA Defensive Team nods does Kobe have?

[Brazil]

So Manu is a better defender than Bowen ?

[Phenomanul]

So Manu is a better defender than Bowen ?

No, especially 1v1 coverage... Ginobili also never had the assignment of guarding the other team's best player.

His placement on this list is probably an effect of good overall Basketball IQ and from having to play most of his minutes against the other teams' bench players...

[SpursFan86]

Individual Defensive Rating is a misleading stat. It's not directly how many points someone scores on a team while that individual is on the court. It's based on the team's overall defensive rating and how many blocks/steals/rebounds the player had. This is why guys like Bowen doesn't have a high DTRG, despite being an amazing defender. He didn't get many box score stats defensively. If you're on a team that's great defensively, you'll almost automatically have a great DTRG.

For example: Ryan Anderson had a 101 DTRG in 2011 (puts him in the top 6% DTRG-wise)...his team was 3rd in the league defensively that year. 2 years later in 2013, he had a DTRG of 112 (bottom 7% DTRG-wise)...his team was 28th in defense that year.

So did Ryan Anderson go from being an elite defender to a horrible one in the span of 2 years? Of course not.

Duncan is an all-time great defender. But using his individual DTRG to justify that is the wrong way of going about things. Instead, just look at the fact that the worst Duncan-anchored defense ever was 11th in 2011. From '99-10, the Spurs always had a top 10 defense in the league, and from '99-'08, the Spurs never dipped below #3 in the league defensively.

[Chinook]

This kind of stats always have some degree of mistake.
Check Defensive Win Shares, Duncan is 4th. Maybe is correct, maybe not.

I think now that the teams have this new tech following players eventually more accurate stats would show who really is the best defender.
They would be able to see how many points a players allows if he is in less than 2 feet away from the guy with the ball...or some crazy thing like that. Better stats for player at the post, etc.

As of now, advance stats is all we have.

I do want to say, that steals and blocks should count more in the current ratings, IMO.

Blocks and steals are overrated in DRtg. I actually don't like that. Defenders that force misses or better yet deny entry passes generally get the shaft. In Ginobili's case, he stole a lot of balls. That plus the Spurs' strong team DRtg account for his individual rating. Seriously, it helps to actually read the formulae before taking anything of these stats for granted.

[Chinook]

Individual Defensive Rating is a misleading stat. It's not directly how many points someone scores on a team while that individual is on the court. It's based on the team's overall defensive rating and how many blocks/steals/rebounds the player had. This is why guys like Bowen doesn't have a high DTRG, despite being an amazing defender. He didn't get many box score stats defensively. If you're on a team that's great defensively, you'll almost automatically have a great DTRG.

For example: Ryan Anderson had a 101 DTRG in 2011 (puts him in the top 6% DTRG-wise)...his team was 3rd in the league defensively that year. 2 years later in 2013, he had a DTRG of 112 (bottom 7% DTRG-wise)...his team was 28th in defense that year.

So did Ryan Anderson go from being an elite defender to a horrible one in the span of 2 years? Of course not.

Duncan is an all-time great defender. But using his individual DTRG to justify that is the wrong way of going about things. Instead, just look at the fact that the worst Duncan-anchored defense ever was 11th in 2011. From '99-10, the Spurs always had a top 10 defense in the league, and from '99-'08, the Spurs never dipped below #3 in the league defensively.

Thank you. Took the words right out of my mouth.

[Kool Bob Love]

5-5.

[Brazil]

Individual Defensive Rating is a misleading stat. It's not directly how many points someone scores on a team while that individual is on the court. It's based on the team's overall defensive rating and how many blocks/steals/rebounds the player had. This is why guys like Bowen doesn't have a high DTRG, despite being an amazing defender. He didn't get many box score stats defensively. If you're on a team that's great defensively, you'll almost automatically have a great DTRG.

For example: Ryan Anderson had a 101 DTRG in 2011 (puts him in the top 6% DTRG-wise)...his team was 3rd in the league defensively that year. 2 years later in 2013, he had a DTRG of 112 (bottom 7% DTRG-wise)...his team was 28th in defense that year.

So did Ryan Anderson go from being an elite defender to a horrible one in the span of 2 years? Of course not.

Duncan is an all-time great defender. But using his individual DTRG to justify that is the wrong way of going about things. Instead, just look at the fact that the worst Duncan-anchored defense ever was 11th in 2011. From '99-10, the Spurs always had a top 10 defense in the league, and from '99-'08, the Spurs never dipped below #3 in the league defensively.

Good post spursfan86

[Captivus]

Blocks and steals are overrated in DRtg. I actually don't like that. Defenders that force misses or better yet deny entry passes generally get the shaft. In Ginobili's case, he stole a lot of balls. That plus the Spurs' strong team DRtg account for his individual rating. Seriously, it helps to actually read the formulae before taking anything of these stats for granted.

What I meant was that getting a rebound doesnt mean you are a good defender, thats all, no need to attack me.

[Obstructed_View]

So Manu is a better defender than Bowen ?

Bowen, more than anyone on that list, was put on the floor specifically to guard the best scorer on the other team. When Ray Allen or Tracy Mcgrady sat down, so did Bowen. If he could hold his guy to 30 points on 28 shots, he had a good night, but he was there for every one of those points. The fact that Bowen's numbers are comparable to other guys is a testament to how good he was.

[Chinook]

What I meant was that getting a rebound doesnt mean you are a good defender, thats all, no need to attack me.

I wasn't attacking you. I was expressing frustration with all the people misusing the stat for various purposes. The first half of the post talking about the inclusion of steaks and blocks in DRtg was for you. The rest wasn't. I apologize for seeming antagonistic.

[Obstructed_View]

If steaks were included, Dejuan Blair would be a league leader.