Need some advice picking the game tomorrow night (no Avante allowed, tbh)

**Avante** · 12-09-2013

I'm definitely going to make small bets next year using the anti-Avante system, tbh..should be fun, sucks that it'll have to wait until September, though..

Me vs you can start this week, ya got balls?

**Avante** · 12-09-2013

Originally Posted by GoodOdor

Statistically speaking, doing so would have netted you a 60% winning season tbh

I'm now at 40%...hahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

**Avante** · 12-09-2013

I notice nobody ever takes me on, why is that?

**Clipper Nation** · 12-09-2013

Originally Posted by Avante

I'm now at 40%...hahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

You guaranteed 65% and now you're bragging about 40%

**HarlemHeat37** · 12-09-2013

You aren't a real betting connoisseur, tbh..

One of the rules of gambling in any facet is properly managing your bank roll..if your bank roll increases, you can safely increase your bet volume, accordingly..if your bank roll decreases and you're losing consistently, you should consider making smaller bets that fit your adjusted bank roll and winning percentage..at the very least, if you're going to continue gambling, you should keep playing the same volume, tbh..

Avante, a self-proclaimed expert, somehow decided to start betting at a unit volume that is significantly larger than his normal range, despite a decreased bank roll and a horrible record for the season..this decided to chase his bets, which is one of the cardinal sins in the gambling field, meaning he's either:

- An amateur gambler

- A liar

- Both

All of these options are plausible, tbh..

**spurraider21** · 12-09-2013

i've got like 15 minutes

pls help

**spurraider21** · 12-09-2013

i decided to bet against avante and december romo. took the bears

**GoodOdor** · 12-09-2013

Originally Posted by spurraider21

i decided to bet against avante and december romo. took the bears

Even if you lose, going against Avante is always the correct call

**Robz4000** · 12-09-2013

Originally Posted by spurraider21

i decided to bet against avante and december romo. took the bears

looks good so far

**jimbo** · 12-09-2013

Originally Posted by Avante

There is nobody here that has any clue at all about any of this stuff but me. Been at for over 40 years, not a stone I left unturned. I gave you every...fact..there is on the game.

What was this about?

paste
Any advice from non cowboy fans/avante?

You look at power points which takes everything these teams have done this season into consideration and we have.

Cowboys 25
Bears 20

Good luck getting any other serious betting advice here.

You didn't actually break down any matchups, which is at minimum something you'd have to account for. Everyone has access to the stats you posted, that's why they're irrelevant. They're already taken into account when they write up the lines and as the lines shift. The only way to get a real advantage is to use factors that aren't publicly available and tracked. Sports gambling reflects the efficient market hypothesis with regards to the stats you're saying. The inefficiencies in the markets are small and from the papers I've read there people don't think there's a profitable way to exploit them, not in the long term. (inefficiencies such as ego, media influences on perception, handicaps with regards to large markets)

Here's a good read on one of the more well known NBA gamblers

http://espn.go.com/blog/playbook/dol...op-nba-gambler

And there's tons of papers you can find on the efficient market hypothesis with regards to sports gambling on google

http://academic.reed.edu/economics/p...2/fproj/JH.pdf

https://www.ideals.illinois.edu/bits...pdf?sequence=1

Tbh, I don't keep up with NFL gambling but I don't even think it's possible to win money from it long term.