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It seemed like until the finals, the Duncan-Splitter pairing was working nicely. Don't know what happened tbh.
- The Splitter and Duncan pairing..
Of all 2-man combinations that have played substantial minutes together this season, the Splitter-Duncan combination has been by far the 2nd worst, only behind the Beli-Leonard duo, tbh..
When Duncan and Splitter are on the floor together, the Spurs shoot 42% from the field and a disgusting 25% from 3-point range..last year, the Duncan-Splitter pairing was the 2nd best on the team among rotations that played substantial minutes, only behind Duncan-Parker..defensively, the Duncan-Splitter duo has been one of the worst combinations on the roster, a 180 from last season's elite performance, allowing 45% from the field and a ridiculous 43% from long distance..
The Spurs shot 50% from the field and 41% from 3 when Duncan-Splitter were on the floor together in 2012-2013..When Duncan and Splitter were on the floor together last season, opponents shot 41% from the field and 36% from 3, it was one of the best defensive pairings in the entire league..
Obviously you have to factor the rest of the 3 starters and weigh their minutes, as it will affect the outcome of the 2-man stats, but if you only rank the 2-man combinations among Spurs' starters, Duncan-Splitter is by far the 2nd worst combination, tbh..
So, what is the problem?..
Well, defensively, Duncan's mobility is the problem, tbh..he's even slower than last season, and it's more difficult than ever to defend with conventional lineups in today's NBA, especially without an athletic freak in the frontcourt..
At the rim and on the interior, Duncan has actually been one of the best defenders in the league this season..among bigs that are statistically eligible, Duncan is 7th in the NBA in defensive FG% at the rim, he has done a great job contesting and blocking shots this year..
The problem is that opponents are attempting more 3s and jump shots against the Spurs this year due to their lack of mobility, especially up front..Splitter is the best all-around defender on the team, but his offense is too much of a liability to start him at this point IMO..
- Beli should not be a starter on this team..
His defensive numbers are horrible, tbh..the 3-point defense in the starting lineup has gone downhill since he joined the unit..
Strategically, it doesn't make sense..Kawhi Leonard is a good defender(although overrated), but his defensive style is suited to guard big SGs/SFs/small PFs..he is not a good defender against guards, he does not possess the lateral quickness to defend PGs and quick SGs like Lebron..
Danny Green is the Spurs' best defensive player against guards, tbh..
When you have Beli and Leonard in the game together, the Spurs are asking Leonard to defend guards like Harden/Ellis, which he can't do effectively..having Beli on the floor doesn't aid Leonard offensively, and it makes even less sense for the team from a defensive standpoint, since Marco is a huge defensive liability..
- Green should be starting..
The duo of Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard has been the best defensive combination among 2-man starters, after they ranked highly last season, and more importantly for this team and their struggles defending the outside shot, they are the best combination at defending the 3..
Opponents are only shooting 33% from 3 when Green and Leonard are on the floor at the same time..the numbers are even more impressive when you combine them with just one of Duncan/Splitter + Boris Diaw..
I have seen some posters comment that the Spurs got lucky last year by avoiding elite 3-point teams in the playoffs, but they did play against 2 of the best outside shooting teams in the league in the Warriors/Heat..
Pop recognized the obvious move in those series's:
Vs. Lakers: Green 23.2 MPG
Vs. Warriors: 35.7
Vs. Grizzlies: 28.4
Vs. Heat: 35.6
The Spurs need Leonard/Green to play 35+ minutes each in any series against quality shooting teams, obviously..
It's also obvious that the Spurs need another perimeter defender, but since there's no room at the 1/2, it'll have to be a Kirilenko type at the 3/4..
-Boris should be starting..
Defensively, the combination of either one of Duncan/Splitter with Diaw has been noticeably better than the Duncan and Splitter duo, tbh..
While Diaw isn't a defensive stopper of any kind, he's mobile enough to contest the outside, which has killed the Spurs as of late..
Offensively and overall, although the sample size is small, the lineup of Duncan/Diaw/Leonard/Green/Parker has been the most effective combination of Spurs rotation players, tbh..
In the small sample size, the Spurs are shooting 58% from the field and 50% from 3 with that lineup..while there's the possibility that the numbers are skewed due to the sample size, this lineup shot 50% from the field and 43% from 3 through the course of last season, they didn't have any problems scoring the ball, tbh..
-Leonard is the weak link on offense..
It's evident that Leonard without a jump shot doesn't fit in the starting lineup, where he is used primarily as a spot-up shooter and garbage man, tbh..
Leonard's shooting %s from the corners have dipped..down 4% on 1 side and 14% on the other side..not only are the %s lower, but he's shooting 5% less attempts from 1 corner and another 5% less on the other end..
I've read from several posters that Leonard should be attacking more, but where exactly is the spacing?..from the footage I've watched, there just isn't any room, tbh..Splitter is in the paint, opponents are sagging off Duncan and allowing him to shoot his jump shots, and Tony isn't a perimeter threat..
This has also hurt all the other Spurs' starters, as defenders are clearly sagging off Leonard and begging him to shoot 3s..
Leonard as a spot-up shooter + Splitter on offense hurts the rest of the starters, as they are both offensive liabilities at the moment..
For those that question Leonard's ability to create, he's actually 3rd on the team in shots created for himself, barely behind Ginobili..he's very capable of creating in the mid-post and inside, which is supported by the numbers and footage..
The numbers show that he has been horrible with Duncan and Splitter, but much better with Diaw..this makes sense, as Diaw can stretch the floor and adds another creator to the floor, he allows Leonard to operate and finish..
Leonard will continue to be an offensive liability when he's on the floor in this role, his shooting isn't going to magically improve, and Splitter will not miraculously develop a jump shot, tbh..the Spurs are currently playing a starting lineup with 2 offensive liabilities, a defensive liability(Beli) and a worn out Parker..
Ideally, the Spurs will acquire one more 2-way piece at the 3 or a smaller 4, it would help provide much needed flexibility..I'm very hopeful for a lineup of Duncan/Diaw/Leonard/Green/Parker, as I think it would help solve some of these issues..
Last edited by HarlemHeat37; 12-27-2013 at 08:00 PM.
It seemed like until the finals, the Duncan-Splitter pairing was working nicely. Don't know what happened tbh.
Duncan was a beast last year, Splitter looked good because of this.. now that Duncan has slowed a little Splitter looks worse.
Duncan-Splitter worked against Gasol-Randolph and Howard-Hill in the playoffs, but failed against the Warriors and Heat small-ball lineups..
They have struggled this year against bigs that can shoot/run and small-ball lineups, tbh..the Blazers, Rockets and Thunder possess combinations that will give the Splitter/Duncan combination some problems IMO..
Duncan's offensive decline has hurt the duo's offensive effectiveness, as Splitter obviously isn't a reliable offensive weapon..
Which is why I'm pissed Tiago isn't helping out Timmy more.
He's not capable of that.. Tiago is useless against this years 2nd round teams we will potentially face offensively and defensively.
Pretty much tbh. What a letdown. Hope Boris can continues to have a solid season because we need it more than ever this year.
I agree. Danny needs to start and Marco needs to come off the bench.
I don't know why a lot of people wanted to bench Green and start Marco.
Marco's defense is an upgrade over Neal's but he's still pretty bad on that end.
And I'm all for starting Diaw over Splitter. That should be the adjustment. Diaw makes a lot of sense for the jumpshooting teams in the league which is what the Spurs have struggled with.
Pretty good observations...
Who would you have playing at the end of games HH?
I've always thought a Duncan or Splitter-Kawhi-Green-Manu-Parker would be perfect for any matchup...assuming no one is playing terribly bad or super good
If I had a nickle for every "tbh" in this thread, I'd have like $20.
Awesome info. Tiago and Timmy are failing the eye test obviously, you further prove that with your write up. Timmy is slowing down, most of us knew he couldn't maintain his level from last season. Splitter has also taken a step back. The big difference is Splitter is 28 years old, Splitter was supposed to improve, another year with this team, another year in the system. We all had hoped Splitter, Leonard, and Green would continue to improve. And in large part they have all taken a step back in at least one area of their game, and none of them have improved significantly in any area. Obviously huge problems. Add their struggles with Tony Parker's struggles/fatigue and that brings you smack dab staring into the face of this years team. Good against the scrubs, horrible against the elite. Something has to give.
I am concerned with Parker, what can you do to get him going? He is obviously exhausted. That is not going away anytime soon. So unless we see him get extensive rest, I don't see an answer to the problem, and we all know Parker sitting out for multiple games isn't likely/not going to happen. Splitter will likely play better Defense, Rebound better. But his Offense is not going to improve. We know this. Maybe he ups his scoring a basket, maybe two a game here and there. That isn't good enough. His Offense is way too underdeveloped. Green is streaky, if he isn't hitting, he has to make up for it with his Defense. I think Green will come and go, that's what we got last year, that's what we will get this year. Which brings us to Leonard. He can't do a lot worse can he? He is the youngest on the team, and the most athletic. The Spurs have to get a lot more from him, and Pop HAS to start calling him plays, Parker has to get him involved. If we don't get this, we are toast. Bottom line. Even with Leonard vastly improving as the season gets late, we still likely don't have enough. There has been to much regression in some of our players. Also some players likely over achieved and they are giving their best, but their best isn't good enough.
Which brings us to the obvious conclusion. TRADE. Bonner has an expiring deal. Does he have any value? Not a lot, but do you think Brooklyn wants to shed salary? The Knicks??? The longer these teams lose, the better it is for San Antonio TBH. It increases the likelihood of those teams wanting to blow it all up and start over. Those are just 2 teams, obvious teams at that, but there are others. Do we have other players worth anything? Maybe, maybe not. It just depends on who San Antonio is willing to make expendable. Does the front office see this season as it's now or never??? Or are they in denial? We know this can't last forever...Tim is 38. The end is in site, but that doesn't mean all is bad. We have had an amazing run, we still have a chance to win it ALL this year, maybe next year. But this is a team that is firmly planted in the now. There isn't a foreseeable future plan.
Last edited by ThaBigFundamental21; 12-27-2013 at 02:36 AM.
Honestly Diaw over Splitter isn't a bad idea. At least try it. Splitter could have a shot at least against 2nd stringers...I agree. Danny needs to start and Marco needs to come off the bench.
I don't know why a lot of people wanted to bench Green and start Marco.
Marco's defense is an upgrade over Neal's but he's still pretty bad on that end.
And I'm all for starting Diaw over Splitter. That should be the adjustment. Diaw makes a lot of sense for the jumpshooting teams in the league which is what the Spurs have struggled with.
Tiago has done absolutely nothing to help his offensive game, no post moves at all, not even basic stuff you learn as a kid. It's embarrassing. Sure we have some players to trade but a lot of the teams that would want to shed players for cap relief have absolutely nothing of interest, hence why they are sucking in the first place.
Diaw is probably the 3rd best defender on this squad tbh. I don't know how he manages to move his feet that fast but he does.
Great work.
I do think benching Splitter would be a good move. He's good enough to be worth his money, but he can't play with Duncan, especially if Leonard continues to struggle from three. Green got the blame, but his plus-minus suggests he played his role well enough. Benching Leonard against smaller teams may be a good idea, since Beli can space the floor better, which would help the offense. Green can guard the smaller players like Ellis. Then Leonard can play with more spacing in a unit in which he can play in the post. That makes more sense than benching Green in such games.
Agree on the need for a third defender, but disagree on the position. I think a defensive combo-guard would be best. Mills is a great fit next to Beli and Manu, but the team needs someone who can check all these sixth-man type guards.
I didn't realize that the Duncan-Splitter combo was that bad. I totally agree that Green should be starting over Belinelli. Not only does starting Belinelli hurt the defense right from the tip, but it hurts the bench and eliminates the awesome pairing of Manu and Beli off the bench. Pretty dumb move by Pop. Green obviously needs to go back to his starting role. As far as Diaw goes, I'm all for starting him over Splitter right now if it's gonna help the spacing on offense.
Really would like to have a SF who is athletic enough to stick on a guard to make them give up the ball and rush them into bad situations but then have them available to stick lengthy SF/SG
Well when looking at New York and Brooklyn, they are filled with talent. They just can't win, too many egos, no coaching. Egos aren't an issue in San Antonio, everyone gets in line. It's a veteran team without b.s., we are very lucky in that capacity. Pop won't have b.s. Not to say those 2 teams aren't veteran, but their egos are unreal, their coaching is horrid. It's just a waiting game. I know there are other trade partners out there, I just keep throwing these two out because they are the most obvious.
If we could somehow get Plumlee I'd be all for that.. AK doesn't look like he can stay healthy, Blatche would be interesting from an offensive stand point and Teletovic
Any target in mind? The thing about defensive combo-guards is that they're not all that tough to find.
Evan Turner because of the Philly ties and his reported dislike for what's going on in Philly.
Not an easy deal to make and his contract situation after this year is tricky. Also, he's very inefficient and shows no signs if being a good defensive player. Wouldn't make too much sense to me as the fifth wing.
Agree with Chinook that the Spurs need another defensive combo guard. However, he needs to be capable of defending either wing position as well imo, ala Green. While Green's defense on SFs leaves a lot to be admired, being competent at doing it has helped the Spurs a lot in the past. By getting this player and if Pop ever gives Thomas a shot and he works out, a lot of the Spurs' issues become fixable internally.
Also agree on starting Diaw, tho imo him and Splitter should be interchanged depending on matchups from here on out.
Here are how the lineups should be IMO:
starting: De Col-...just kidding. Parker/Green/Leonard/Diaw/Duncan
bench: Mills/Belinelli/Ginobili/Bonner/Splitter. No, I'm not thrilled at the idea of Bonner getting playtime...but he's better than Ayres. Unless Malcolm Thomas pans out (speaking of him...why has he gotten no playing time AT ALL?), Bonner is our best bet at backup 4. That, or find a way to always keep one of Leonard/Diaw on the floor and play whoever it is at the 4.
end of games/crunch time: Parker/Ginobili/Leonard/Diaw/Duncan. This is our best possible lineup IMO. It'd be really nice if Kawhi could get his range back so that the spacing in this lineup is better. Parker/Diaw can hit threes, but they're not serious threats. As of now Leonard isn't either. That leaves only Ginobili.
One thing that worries me is our reliance on the bench. Don't get me wrong; I love our bench play. But we've already seen so far that the bench won't be able to carry us against great teams. In the playoffs, we shouldn't be relying on the bench to give us 40+ points every night. They're a great tool for the regular season, and they will surely have their moments in the playoffs, but we're going to need our starting lineup to be more effective if we want to go deep in the playoffs. Particularly, we need more scoring in our starting lineup. We all know how Parker gets at times...while he's still a reliable #1 option, he WILL disappear at times in the playoffs. That's how he is. Duncan has looked worse offensively this year...while he's still solid, we won't be able to rely on him to carry the scoring load. Especially not if he's going up against someone like Dwight.
Last edited by SpursFan86; 12-27-2013 at 04:11 AM.
great takes HH
i think a majority of posters knew Green should have been starting the whole time. it was mostly cliff jumping GNSF that wanted green benched. Green's shot comes and goes, but his defense is consistent. Beli also clearly plays at his best next to Manu. Diaw-Duncan would work fine, but I think they should continue to ride Duncan-Splitter and let them figure it out like they did last year, since that is an imposing defensive duo.
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