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of course you do...you got totally owned by Jimbo
Every year, educated fans call out before it happens, despite watching less film/games of prospects than scouts, players that won't be very good. Every year, teams that get paid to draft fail miserably at it. In fact, most do. It's because it is very difficult to evaluate a 19 year old: their drive, intangibles & game.
Not only that, its incredibly rare that you get that de facto 1 player like Duncan/Shaq/Lebron...There aren't even that many 1b guys. Lakers are completely terrible. Kobe isn't even a 1b any more and probably a very questionable 2. Not only that, there does not appear to be that true 1 guy in the draft. - Since you're so incredibly small in stature I can see how Shaq's and Lebron's girth would amaze you...but fact is: Kobe 2 Shaq 1 or Kobe 5 Duncan 4 or Kobe 5 Lebronze 2....of all the players listed 2 have Bronze medals and Shaq has 0 medals...
From a fan perspective (and I admit this is completely anecdotal) if you understand basketball, watching a guy play 5-6 times in addition to other research usually gives you a decent perspective. Not a GM's perspective who are talking to coaches, going to practices & watching literally every game a player has played in, but a solid perspective to make educated guesses.
The reality is it's just hard, even for pro's but I have no doubt many people who at least do what I said from a fan perspective and understand basketball can peg a player reasonably well. The difference is we look at it solely from a basketball perspective. FO's look at all factors including marketing potential...They also look at it from an "upside" perspective more than we do and have a lot more pressure which often times pigeon holes them into making decisions they don't like.
When you start comparing players to Duncan, Durant & Lebron, the expectation is that they pretty much turn a franchise that is bad into at least a fringe contender. When you watch Wiggins, you have to imagine what Lebron would have done at the same age if placed in the exact same situation. I guarantee you that Kansas wouldn't be ranked 18th in the country and that Lebron would be far ahead of Wiggins.
The point is - outside of landing a Lebron, no one is coming into to LA that is turning them into a contender even if Kobe can be a viable #2 on a le team. There aren't Lebron level FA's nor Lebron level draft picks. Doesn't mean LA can't be a playoff team if things go well, but any significant jump in LA's talent will be 2+ years down the road. So what's Lebron level...dude just now won his first le after 10 yrs in plus one is from a locked out seasonno one needs a juiced up high schooler like Lebronze they need a great player with potential and that's just what we're gonna pick little man
See Kool's comments in red
of course you do...you got totally owned by Jimbo
In Buss I trust
the Lakers aren't in a spot where they just need to add pieces. they need to assemble an entire roster. that is not going to be a 1-2 year fix
Exactly. Not only that, they are in a tight spot financially due to the CBA and their current contracts. Let's say the Lakers draft a guy who is as good as advertised. They still need to build a team within the next two years that is finals caliber. They have some money, but depending on who they sign, it could dry up fast.
If they sign a max player, it will be very, very difficult to contend. It would take Kobe being a healthy, 1b. It will take that max player being a good fit with Kobe and being a 1a. It will take their draft pick playing like a ROY/legit star in the first 2 years and it would take LA landing some league min/small contract guys that just really fit a play well. You can see how that will be tough for many reasons:
1) Kobe's health and abilities
2) What star FA's are available that not only can be 1a's in the right situation, but reasonably fit next to Kobe?
3) Draft picks playing like stars on le contenders in their first two years is tough
4) Small contract guys coming up Aces (which LA has done decently well as of late) is tough
The other scenario is the same, but instead of a max guy, you sign a couple more depth guys in that 6-10M range to increase your depth and fit. To me, that is likely the easiest and best strategy but very tough. A lot depends on where Kobe is at physically and the impact he can have on games for a team making a run to a le.
yep. some people in the thread act like having cap space and being in the lottery is a surefire route to contending shortly, yet there are plenty of teams that are stuck in ty situations despite constantly finding themselves in those positions. the lakers only hope is to land a good draft pick now, bide time, and sign love/westbrook and pray that they are able to build a contender around that core. considering they have so few picks after this year, there isn't much else they can do
personally I love seeing Spur fan meltdown and bricks over the Lakers potential...they are all scrambling trying to find reasons why Kobe can't get to 6 when their -in-the-booty leader can't get off 4
This is the most realistic approach, and if they don't land Westbrook or Love, the rebuilding process is extended.
When was the last time the Lakeshow built through the draft, tbh?
That, IMO is the biggest difference between Dr Buss and Fredo. Dr Buss spent for the right now, and spent wisely. He knew where his bread was buttered. He understood that building through the draft is a long, draw-out process with no guarantees. When a player crossed the franchise or got out of line, no matter how important (see: Shaq, even Kirby), he immediately put them on a position to get back in line or GTFO... like this:
Then again, Dr Buss was the GOAT owner, IMO...After all the anger and angst and fury of the immediate post-Shaq era had inspired Kobe Bryant to make a trade demand, Jerry Buss finally called his superstar guard to the owner's home in the Los Angeles hills on an autumn evening in 2007.
The Los Angeles Lakers had found a trade for Bryant, but Buss warned him that it wasn't to one of his selected destinations.
"Detroit," Buss said.
The Lakers had agreed to a deal to send Bryant to the Pistons and needed Bryant's approval to waive his no-trade clause. The package included a combination of Detroit's core players and draft picks, sources say. Buss and Lakers general manager Mitch Kupchak needed an answer soon, because they refused to let the issue linger into training camp.
Looking back, Bryant isn't sure it would've mattered whether it was Detroit or Chicago, Dallas or New York. In that moment, in Buss' house in the hills, it washed over Bryant how much staying a Laker for life meant to him, how no matter how dire the state of the franchise seemed, that Buss had a history of restoring the Lakers to championship contention.
"It hit me that I didn't really want to walk out on Dr. Buss," Bryant told Yahoo! Sports on Monday.
http://sports.yahoo.com/news/nba--ko...002209469.html
Embid is Thabeet 2.0
Have you seen Thabeet in College? Hasheem never had a post game. Embiid is fluid for a big man. He's miles ahead of Thabeet. But people need to taper their expectations of him. He's not Shaq, not Dwight (defensively) but he can be Anthony Davis good. Keep in mind, Embiid is quickly learning how to do the right things , he's only been playing since 20011 and hasn't developed a ton of bad habits unlike most big men in college.
I don't think there's anything inherent about LA that results in players not getting developed. I think that's just on Phil Jackson and his staff. M'DA can develop players, he's earned a lot of guys a lot of money. Even though the Suns drafted like dog , he got good production out of the young core they had and later on the players the Suns traded for. He knows how to get the most out of guys who are young and athletic. I wouldn't even worry about that.
You think the Lakers are in the hole, I think they're finally decimated enough to actually build a foundation.
I can't argue that a rookie is going to be the one to singlehandedly take the Lakers to the promised land. Not even 18-19 year old Lebron could do that. I'm saying the Lakers have the cap space to put whatever rookie they have in the position to succeed early in his career. Unlike most teams, they can literally build the roster around this guy. Give him all the touches he needs to grow as a player. (Ex: Leonard vs George's development) Three years is what you've got to work with on a rookie contract. Two of those will be with the crippling Kobe contract. But that still sets them up to get a max free agent in any of the next three years, before their rookie gets paid. So year three is when they should aim to be contenders again.
Right now they have no iden y. They literally have a collection of bad to average players playing on 1-2 year contracts. But starting over gives them the chance to either take on the iden y of M'DA teams or look at what their rookie does well and try to put players around him to emphasize that. But like you said their iden y in the past has just been "Kobe." He's got the potential to ruin the rebuild if he forces the Lakers to sign bad contracts to put around him to try to get in "win now" mode. There just aren't enough worthwhile players in this year's FA class to screw up your cap flexibility over. You've got to think Kobe knows that the Lakers were never going to be serious contenders with how old he is and with his awful contract, but he might be enough of an egomaniac to think otherwise. If they sign a max guy this summer, I think that's when they've officially ed themselves.
I don't think you can just walk away from the table if you've got hopes of winning big. You'll never be Warren Buffett if all of your investment money is in a mutual fund. I mean, I can't think of any low risk big reward situations in the NBA. Cuban tried to burn it to the ground to build a new core, and was left with ashes. That might happen to the Lakers too, but they've still got to take the shot.
As far as missing on the rookie they draft, I just think there's a just a great chance of that happening. I mean it could. Embiid could stop plateau at where he's at. Parker could turn out to be a significantly worse Melo. Wiggins has always been a project player. Randle's offensive game might not translate to the NBA. Exum could end up being a one trick pony. Smart might not have the athleticism for the NBA.
There might not be a transcendent player in this draft if Embiid\Wiggins\Exum don't develop, but with how deep it goes-- the Lakers are bound to get a pretty good player out of one of these guys. Having a legit second option on your team for 5-6 mil doesn't sound so bad if they can haul in a max player like Love.
Embiid is nothing like Thabeet other than he's African. Embiid has good footwork and has shown flashes of doing some amazing posts out of double teams and in the post. He's not a dominant scorer, but if his passing gets more consistent, there's a guy you can run an offense through.
Good take.
No it's not bad to get a high draft pick, ever. It doesn't make them contenders though. 3 years from now, for all we know, Lebron could be in LA. Kobe's 2 year deal doesn't start until November and goes through spring 2016. I don't know if they can waive Kobe before that, not sure how that would work or how his contract is written, but they won't even be playing decent ball for 2 years. If anyone thinks they can get lottery a couple of times by 2016, that's a lot of ty basketball for LA fans to endure to try to build a winner.
Mike D isn't the catalyst for developing players. That would fall on the organization somewhat by deciding to go that route. Kobe would no doubt have to sign off on it and that means giving new guys the reins but I don't see it happening with Kobe. I could be wrong, but Kobe will have to be ushered off the court in order to retire him. He'll get a couple DNP CD's along the way before he gets Iverson pissed and demands something or just Spree's himself out of it. Then again, he could retire gracefully, he's got a lot of future earnings to think about.
If the Lakers make a hard decision they are going to tank, that's one thing, but that middle of the road at ude about it coupled with the uncertainty of Kobe's at ude once he returns could put them near the bubble, and that's a disaster.
Jimbo, that is what people are saying. Kool is saying LA will contend next year. LA doesn't have much cap space for the next years(depending on how you view it - to some, having the ability to add a max player is a ton of cap space, but it's relative to the team you already have).
Like you said, their moves before and the possibility they sign a max guy this off season could really dampen your strategy and seems quite likely. Kobe's contract signal where his mindset is. I am 99% sure they will sign a guy like Melo to a max deal to pair with Kobe even though it results in no real shot at winning now. LA is always about "winning it all", not just making the playoffs. The fact is there are just not that many guys that can win les without having to have the most stacked teams around them.
Also, it's pretty damn rare to think of a 2nd option on a championship team that will just make 5/6M.
They don't even have their pick in 2015. Next year is a completely wasted year for LA, other than watching their rookie develop. They're gonna be tempted to try to win because they don't have a draft pick--but the free agent class in 2015 is just a whole lot better towards building a team than the 2014 one is.
http://hoopshype.com/free_agency_2014.htm
Look through that list and tell me if you see anyone the Lakers can realistically get who would be a good foundation for a championship winning team. No one there is worth the max with Kobe's contract still on the books.
For complimentary pieces, they could hope Bledsoe is cheap. Try to lowball Okafor? Hope Sefolosha's slump ends when he gets in LA? Who knows. It's still hard to find decent role players in this list.
Kobe's at ude is what's gonna make or break the Lakers in the end anyways. 2014 should be really interesting for them tbh. We'll see if Mitch has the balls to put Kobe in his place. (Seeing as he bent them over for 50 mil, I guess that isn't likely after all) They've got a shot if he does imo.
They won't contend next year, no matter what they do. A Melo/Kobe combo on the Lakers would be completely horrible. If they somehow got Bosh, he could probably turn them into a playoff team--but not a contender. I just can't imagine 2014 Kobe being a second option on a championship team though. Not unless he had a miracle run, but he's got enough bad karma to where that'll never happen.
And think about it this way. Paul George is the first option on a contender. He's making 3.2 mil this year. (15.8 next year) Same thing with Rose. He made 5.5 during his MVP season. Durant made 4.8 when he was a 30ppg scorer and people realized that the Thunder were legit. That's why the Lakers have such little room for error if they want to be contenders. They really NEED for their rookie to be good because that's the only way they can get a quality scoring option for peanuts.
If the Lakers are smart, they'll gear up everything for that 3rd year.
Last edited by jimbo; 01-16-2014 at 04:52 PM.
I cannot see someone like Lebron joining them to win rings because it's not a good situation there for that, and the Lakers have 16 rings already, Lebron's wouldn't make any waves in the annals of history.
Bledsoe might go though, they need a good PG. That's the name that stuck out to me, and though Dirk or Tim could go, neither will for any money LA wants to spend on these guys (Tim won't leave SA in my opinion but you never know).
No, like I said, no one in the draft can make this team compe ive next season and likely not even the season after that. It would take a resurgent Bryant and a real sleeper in the draft to even get these guys to the playoffs without some help from the league, which brings me to my next point: The league will find a way to bail them out of their own up. It will happen. Some under the table deal will be struck and some player(s) will suddenly be in LA and they will appear, on paper, to be contenders. Let's not write Nash off just yet though... a healthy Nash, Pau and Kobe could quite possibly make a run to the playoffs.
For anything to work, Kobe is going to have to be at LEAST in 2012-13 form (if he's going to be taking up that much of the cap), while realizing he cannot be the alpha on the team. The odds of either of those, let alone both, is pretty damn slim.
Embiid is averaging 10 pts. 10. Not sure how that will translate into a dominant NBA career.
Wiggins not averaging as lot either yet her gets Lebron comparisons ...gotta watch guys play. Ppg means little.
Admittedly, I haven't seen much. But, in what areas, if any, is he superior to Randle?
Don't even say that. Just saying all the Jayhawks are gonna have low PPG ...much like the Arizona kids like GOrdon and Johnson.
Cant penalize them for being on a high caliber team.
Early on Parker & Randle looked like the best players.
Now Wiggins, Exum and Embiid are my favorite players.
I will be watching the conference and NCAA tourneys very closely.
It's also worth noting that Embiid is only averaging 5.8 FGA. He makes 67% of his shots with limited shots. For comparison Wiggins is shooting 11.5 FGA per game.Part of Bill Self's offense is dictated by what the post players do, if you watch Embiid play, you'll realize how far advance he is in passing from the post for a big.
In reality though, Embiid like I said before is not going to be the better player in their rookie year assuming both players declares to enter the draft. Embiid will probably not even make 3rd Team All-American this year, statistically he's just not the best player in the nation. But when it comes to pro potential, Embiid is the best NBA prospect in college basketball. He has a tremendously high ceiling.I saw Embiid again last Monday where he scored 16 points, grab 9 rebounds and block 5 shots. His impact is undeniable.
Wiggins is much more equipped to flourish in the game immediately. He'll probably win ROY depending on where he lands but in 3-5 years, Embiid I believe will be the better player.
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