His Wichita state team didn't do so well this tourney with a 1 seed, so if we're only looking at tourney results that's damning evidence.
CBB is also littered with small school coaches who go to big conference programs and flame out big time, so he's anything but a sure thing. He's the flavor of the month right now much like Shaka Smart was previously, and how have Shaka's teams done in the tourney recently?
I was all for getting a change the last three offseasons, but right now with a promising young team with a potentially elite PG and a legitimate shot at a big time recruiting class you don't make the change to the flavor of the month.
Also, your analogy is bull unless somehow making the change will give you a healthy David Robinson and a young Tim Duncan next season. It won't.