Race To The # 1 Seed, Spurs Or Thunder?

[cd021]

I personally think HCA is pretty important for us. Obviously I'd prefer a healthy/rested squad over anything, but HCA is big. OKC/LAC/Houston/Portland are all way better at home compared to on the road. Look at their home vs. away records and you'll see a huge difference in their performance.

I mean , look back to the Finals. If we have HCA over Miami, that game 7 is much more winnable.

Also, if we have the #1 seed, that means we'll play the winner of either Houston/Portland or Houston/GS. I think LAC can knock out OKC personally if those teams meet in the 2nd.

Memphis/Dallas --> Golden State/Portland --> LAC --> Finals...that's our ideal path IMO.

The odds of it even getting to 7 games with the Spurs having home court would have been low. The Spurs were the superior team.

[HI-FI]

The Spurs are 0-6 dating back the WCF in OKC. If we were to get back to the Finals the Spurs (almost certainly) home court against Miami and possibly Indiana.

The odds of the Spurs beating OKC without home court is 40/60, at best. I'm not as worried about home court against Indiana. They could just as easily drop the next two games (@ Chicago and Miami).

The Spurs can easily rest its big 3 in the next week. I wouldn't be surprised to see Parker sit at home against Phili giving him 3 days off before Denver game. Then playing @ Denver 2 nights later. They come back home to play the Pelicans who are 12-23 on the road.

Denver is especially short handed. Hickson is out for the season along with McGee. There is a massive drop off in their 4-5 rotation with only Faried and Mosgov posting P.E.Rs above 12.

3 seasons ago Pop actually allowed the big 3 to play the last game of the season because there was a chance that they would finish with the best record in the league.

He has been known to say one thing and do another. I believe he wants home court through out. He won't up any of the big 3's minute.

the goods.
I'm always anal retentive about health, but I also realize that OKC gets such ridiculous home cooking that I don't like them with the no.1 seed.

[N0 LyF3 ScRuB]

The Spurs are 0-6 dating back the WCF in OKC.

[letmk]

so is the no.1 seed that essential, to the point that Pop is actively pushing for it? D. Green sounded like they are more focused on health and rhythm, which is music to my ears, but I wonder if Pop is worried about getting HCA.

I don't think Pop does. Otherwise he would not have rested Timmy and Manu as usual.

[cd021]

I don't think Pop does. Otherwise he would not have rested Timmy and Manu as usual.

I'd argue that him sitting Duncan and Ginobili while playing Parker, can be seen as him going for the #1 seed. He is just being smart about it. Duncan and Ginobili sit at GSW and have 2 days rest for Phili (they may not even play the final 1 1/2 quarter) Parker could sit tonight and have all three healthy for a home and home against Denver.

[cd021]

We tend to lose the close games at OKC. Spurs are 4-3 in San Antonio from the WCF to now.

[Mugen]

I'd sit Duncan/Parker against the Sixers. Maybe have someone else sit out in each of the home games against Denver and New Orleans. Gonna need the full squad @Denver IMO.

[Chinook]

Um...that was in SA...

[crc21209]

I'd sit Duncan/Parker against the Sixers. Maybe have someone else sit out in each of the home games against Denver and New Orleans. Gonna need the full squad @Denver IMO.

I would sit Duncan/Parker against Philly too but I wonder if Pop would avoid that move against his good friend Brett Brown. Maybe Pop wouldnt want to offend Brown by sitting those two and sending the message that "We can beat your squad without 2 of our best players." Sort of a slap in the face move...

[Sean Cagney]

Um...that was in SA...

I was just going to say that too, he said IN OKC so yes you are right.

[exstatic]

I'd sit Duncan/Parker against the Sixers. Maybe have someone else sit out in each of the home games against Denver and New Orleans. Gonna need the full squad @Denver IMO.

I was thinking Parker/Diaw, since Timmy just sat with Manu on Saturday. Diaw looks gassed. Everything was hitting the front of the rim.

[FromWayDowntown]

Spurs should clinch First Round HCA with a win tonight over Philly and a Portland loss at Miami. That scenario would put the Spurs 10 full games up in the loss column over the Blazers (who currently hold the #5 spot) leave the Blazers with only 10 games remaining, obviously leaving the worst case scenario for the Spurs as a tie with the Blazers; the Spurs should ultimately hold that tiebreaker.

At the moment, of the teams that are between 5th and 9th in the standings, the Grizzlies also have a mathematical chance to catch the Spurs (though the Grizz would have to run the table and the Spurs would have to end on a 13 game losing streak for that to happen), but a Spurs win tonight would also leave them at least 12 games up on the Grizzlies in the loss column with 12 to go for both teams, and the Spurs already holding that tiebreaker.

The Spurs have already clinched a higher playoff seed than Golden State (which is 11 back in the loss column with 11 to go and has lost the tiebreaker), Dallas (which is 13 back with 11 to play), and Phoenix (which is 13 back with 12 to play).

[Chinook]

Spurs should clinch First Round HCA with a win tonight over Philly and a Portland loss at Miami. That scenario would put the Spurs 10 full games up in the loss column over the Blazers (who currently hold the #5 spot) leave the Blazers with only 10 games remaining, obviously leaving the worst case scenario for the Spurs as a tie with the Blazers; the Spurs should ultimately hold that tiebreaker.

At the moment, of the teams that are between 5th and 9th in the standings, the Grizzlies also have a mathematical chance to catch the Spurs (though the Grizz would have to run the table and the Spurs would have to end on a 13 game losing streak for that to happen), but a Spurs win tonight would also leave them at least 12 games up on the Grizzlies in the loss column with 12 to go for both teams, and the Spurs already holding that tiebreaker.

The Spurs have already clinched a higher playoff seed than Golden State (which is 11 back in the loss column with 11 to go and has lost the tiebreaker), Dallas (which is 13 back with 11 to play), and Phoenix (which is 13 back with 12 to play).

The Spurs haven't clinched the tie-break over Portland or GS yet.

[Dex]

The Spurs haven't clinched the tie-break over Portland or GS yet.

Spurs have won all three games against GSW, so there is no tie-breaker.

The season series against Portland is notched at 2-2, so it will go to Conference Record. The Spurs have 10 Conferences Losses with 11 conference games left, while the Blazers have 20 Conference Losses. So the Spurs need two more conference wins or conferences losses by PORT to secure the tiebreaker.

[Chinook]

Spurs have won all three games against GSW, so there is no tie-breaker.

The season series against Portland is notched at 2-2, so it will go to Conference Record. The Spurs have 10 Conferences Losses with 11 conference games left, while the Blazers have 20 Conference Losses. So the Spurs need two more conference wins to secure the season series from POR.

Season series is only the second tie-break. If the Rockets catch the Spurs while GS and Portland catch the Clips and OKC, respectively, they own the first tie-break.

[Dex]

While we are on the topic, the Magic Number for the Spurs to secure a better record than OKC is 12 with 13 games left to play.

[Dex]

Season series is only the second tie-break. If the Rockets catch the Spurs while GS and Portland catch the Clips and OKC, respectively, they own the first tie-break.

Touche. Highly unlikely (this is the Guests we are talking about here), but technically still possible.

[FromWayDowntown]

The Spurs haven't clinched the tie-break over Portland or GS yet.

Good point. I had forgotten about that. My point was a lot premature. My bad.

[poeticism707]

I personally think HCA is pretty important for us. Obviously I'd prefer a healthy/rested squad over anything, but HCA is big. OKC/LAC/Houston/Portland are all way better at home compared to on the road. Look at their home vs. away records and you'll see a huge difference in their performance.

I mean , look back to the Finals. If we have HCA over Miami, that game 7 is much more winnable.

Also, if we have the #1 seed, that means we'll play the winner of either Houston/Portland or Houston/GS. I think LAC can knock out OKC personally if those teams meet in the 2nd.

Memphis/Dallas --> Golden State/Portland --> LAC --> Finals...that's our ideal path IMO.

This.

[cd021]

Phoenix slides into the 8th seed. Dallas currently out of the playoffs. That likely won't hold. Phoenix has a very tough schedule in April.

[cd021]

Post All-star break records (updated to include tonight's games)

San Antonio-16-1 (.941)




Miami 11-7 (5-7 in last 12 games) (.611) (.416)

Oklahoma City-9-7 (.562)

Indiana-11-8 (.578)

[Mel_13]

With 13 games remaining:

OKC 12
LAC 8
HOU 8
POR 5
GSW 2
DAL 1
MEM 1
PHX 1

With 12 games remaining, magic numbers over potential WC playoff teams:

OKC 11
LAC 7
HOU 7
POR 3
GSW 1

[Captivus]

Can Dallas beat OKC tonight?

[SpursFan86]

Can Dallas beat OKC tonight?

Dallas won handily last time they played...and OKC played Denver last night. I'm keeping my fingers crossed.

[cd021]

They'll reverse it for the Spurs. That game is far more important than the second against Houston.

Not so sure. They've been pretty consistent with sitting him on the 1st half of B2Bs last night was the 4th time they did that.

Its kind of pick your poison. They play @ Houston the following night. Sitting him against San Antonio and then having him fresh the following night actually makes some sense.