My best defense for the Grizzlies is.... defense. Their stellar defense in the post to be precise (and very very good with Allen on the wing). Just to be clear, your rationale for putting the Wizards and Raptors over a team that has proven that it can win long playoff series repeatedly in the past 3-4 years of the playoffs is that they "have upside". No elaboration or elucidation. Just that they have upside and they haven't proven themselves yet. And yes, records are a BIG deal when the Grizzlies have played the 8th most difficult schedule, while the Raptors and Wizards rank 19th and LAST, respectively. Despite this, the Grizzlies have a better margin of victory (4.71) than the Raptors (3.57) or the Wizards (2.33) over the last 25% of their schedule (i.e., Gasol playing). To say nothing of the fact that the playoffs are decided by teams that win defense and can slow down the clock and grind out possessions. Do you think the Wizards or Raptors can get stops when they need to? I don't. There's no "upside" for me in either team this season. Perhaps down the road, absolutely, but to put Memphis beneath both of them is unrealistic.
And you're still ignoring the fact that this is anything but a normal year, even for a typically difficult conference. How much does it say about the quality of teams in the West that the NBA commish is entertaining the idea of changing the entire playoff format because the West is such a murderers' row of teams? That is not something the NBA jumps at the chance to do. They would be loathe to do so and would switch to a 16 seeded playoff only if it were absolute necessity by GMs/fans/etc.
Har har, coming from the person who made the assumption that I was a cliff jumper last year. But *I'm* being condescending. Ooookay.
So far off base: I said a series would go 7. Two games went to overtime, and the last one was close throughout. That is not "far off base". That is being right about a playoff series being extremely close and difficult to call. It was 2 points away from going 6, and we got the better end of things. The fact that you don't remember or won't acknowledge how tight every game in that series was after the first is on you.
Speaking of which, experience speaks volumes about how the playoffs are completed. You can't just hide under the umbrella of unpredictability. We know a lot about how the playoffs change the landscape and favor certain teams.
Memphis is a veteran laden, playoff tested, very tough defensive team one year removed from being one of the four teams left standing.
The Raptors and Wizards are very young, not at all tested in the playoffs, and when is the last time they've won a game that meant anything?