Race To The # 1 Seed, Spurs Or Thunder?

[cd021]

Record Post-All star Break (as of 4/15/14)

Spurs-24-4 (.857)

Clippers 19-6 (.760)

Thunder 15-10 (.600)

Heat-17-13 (.566)

Pacers-15-14 (.517)

(Italicized are updated to include the games from 4/14)

[cd021]

Pulling for the Grizzles to beat the Mavs in Memphis. If they do they jump to 7th and play the Thunder. Spurs match-up very well against Dallas, who is the worst defensive team of the 16 playoff teams at 22nd.

While they are an elite offense (ironically, only Miami and the Clippers are better). Diaw and Leonard provide excellent defenders to Dirk. Diaw can guard Marion and switch on to Dirk while Leonard shifts to Eliis. The Spurs could go small with Duncan-Leonard-Manu-Green-Parker to go against Calderon-Ellis-Marion-Dirk-Dalembert. With Dirk having to cover Leonard.

Memphis is 36-15 (.705) in 2014 and have the best DRtg since Gasol returned from a sprained MCL on January 14th (31-13 since, .704)

[200 miles]

Pulling for the Grizzles to beat the Mavs in Memphis. If they do they jump to 7th and play the Thunder. Spurs match-up very well against Dallas, who is the worst defensive team of the 16 playoff teams at 22nd.

While they are an elite offense (ironically, only Miami and the Clippers are better). Diaw and Leonard provide excellent defenders to Dirk. Diaw can guard Marion and switch on to Dirk while Leonard shifts to Eliis. The Spurs could go small with Duncan-Leonard-Manu-Green-Parker to go against Calderon-Ellis-Marion-Dirk-Dalembert. With Dirk having to cover Leonard.

Memphis is 36-15 (.705) in 2014 and have the best DRtg since Gasol returned from a sprained MCL on January 14th (31-13 since, .704)

ahem *Tiago* ahem

[Chinook]

ahem *Tiago* ahem

Yeah, Splitter is a much better Dirk defender than Kawhi. I'd feel very nervous if Leonard is on him for more than a couple of minutes.

[Robz4000]

I'll take either at this point. Just want it finalized so the Spurs can start gameplanning.

[spurraider21]

i dont think either team poses a real threat, but Dallas' lack of defense makes them the enviable choice. Plus, Memphis' style is something that OKC is really uncomfortable with. I would still pick OKC to win that series, but it'll be tougher/longer than an OKC-Dallas series

[Hoops Czar]

Pulling for the Grizzles to beat the Mavs in Memphis. If they do they jump to 7th and play the Thunder. Spurs match-up very well against Dallas, who is the worst defensive team of the 16 playoff teams at 22nd.

While they are an elite offense (ironically, only Miami and the Clippers are better). Diaw and Leonard provide excellent defenders to Dirk. Diaw can guard Marion and switch on to Dirk while Leonard shifts to Eliis. The Spurs could go small with Duncan-Leonard-Manu-Green-Parker to go against Calderon-Ellis-Marion-Dirk-Dalembert. With Dirk having to cover Leonard.

Memphis is 36-15 (.705) in 2014 and have the best DRtg since Gasol returned from a sprained MCL on January 14th (31-13 since, .704)

It doesn't matter. They're both easy outs.

[Hoops Czar]

i dont think either team poses a real threat, but Dallas' lack of defense makes them the enviable choice. Plus, Memphis' style is something that OKC is really uncomfortable with. I would still pick OKC to win that series, but it'll be tougher/longer than an OKC-Dallas series

OKC would smoke Memphis in a playoff series. If you can't score, you can't beat the Thunder.

[spurraider21]

OKC would smoke Memphis in a playoff series. If you can't score, you can't beat the Thunder.

keep them in the halfcourt, frustrate westbrook.

[letmk]

i dont think either team poses a real threat, but Dallas' lack of defense makes them the enviable choice. Plus, Memphis' style is something that OKC is really uncomfortable with. I would still pick OKC to win that series, but it'll be tougher/longer than an OKC-Dallas series

I suspect Mem also perfers OKC to us. However, it's the last game before the playoffs and they've been fighting hard to get into playoffs after falling behind in early season, so they may just rest some starters to be fresh.

[BillMc]

I'd prefer Dallas, if only because Memphis has guys like Tony Allen who when they are losing often throw elbows or trip guys, etc. It seems the chance of an injury is slightly higher against the Grizz.

[cd021]

OKC would smoke Memphis in a playoff series. If you can't score, you can't beat the Thunder.

OKC-100.5 PPG (VS. Memphis)
Memphis-93.5 (VS OKC)

OKC-106.1 PPG -5.6
Memphis-96.0 -3.5

keep in mind that Memphis played two of those games before that massive turnaround. Dallas' would get crushed not Memphis. Dallas is the worst defense in the playoffs OKC is one of the best, so the Mavs elite offense would take a hit that their defense can't cover for.

Memphis is built for the slow pace while OKC could struggle, against Memphis at least. The Thunder are tied for 7th in turnover rate while Memphis is 21st (they are one of the better teams at taking care of the ball).

OKC would obviously still win but it would be more compe ive than a series against Dallas.

[cd021]

Yeah, Splitter is a much better Dirk defender than Kawhi. I'd feel very nervous if Leonard is on him for more than a couple of minutes.

Splitter does a very good job on Dirk. But If Pop decided to go small late, I think he could cover Dirk well enough (hopefully) without Dirk burning us. Leonards can use his length and athleticism to front with Duncan sliding off Dalembert to help if the entry pass is made.

Dirk would also have to match up against Leonard on the offensive end assuming Dallas uses its usual closing lineup of Calderon-Ellis-Marion-Dirk-Dalembert.

The Spurs could even use Leonard set screens for Parker to try and exploit Dirk in the P&R.

Pop ,essentially, said he envisions Leonard playing the most minutes on the team, so I'm assuming he will be playing more minutes at the 4.

[cd021]

ahem *Tiago* ahem

Splitter does nice job on Dirk as well. He plays well against Dallas in 3 games he's averaging 52% FG, 78% FT. 11.7 ppg, & 4.7 rpg in 26 mpg. That makes 3 defenders that we could throw his way.

[Chinook]

Splitter does a very good job on Dirk. But If Pop decided to go small late, I think he could cover Dirk well enough (hopefully) without Dirk burning us. Leonards can use his length and athleticism to front with Duncan sliding off Dalembert to help if the entry pass is made.

Dirk would also have to match up against Leonard on the offensive end assuming Dallas uses its usual closing lineup of Calderon-Ellis-Marion-Dirk-Dalembert.

The Spurs could even use Leonard set screens for Parker to try and exploit Dirk in the P&R.

Pop ,essentially, said he envisions Leonard playing the most minutes on the team, so I'm assuming he will be playing more minutes at the 4.

Leonard's length is almost completely negated by Dirk's height and high release. Kawhi can't stop Dirk any more than Bowen could. He'd be fine for a couple of minutes here or there, but I wouldn't consider him a real option.

As far as the other end goes, I think the Mavs would have Dirk on a shooter while using Marion or Calderon on Leonard.

[cd021]

Leonard's length is almost completely negated by Dirk's height and high release. Kawhi can't stop Dirk any more than Bowen could. He'd be fine for a couple of minutes here or there, but I wouldn't consider him a real option.

As far as the other end goes, I think the Mavs would have Dirk on a shooter while using Marion or Calderon on Leonard.

Leonard and Diaw are actually pretty close in height within a couple of inches of each other while Leonard is much longer. Diaw does have 20-30lbs on Leonard, which does keep Dirk from backing him down. I'm not so sure Dirk would be able to take advantage of Leonard given the help defense. While Dirk can simply shoot over Leonard, that's really true on any player that the Spurs throw on him. He will get his points but I don't see him torching Leonard late.

I could definitely see Pop using a smaller lineup given its mismatch potential on offense. Pop historically; uses smaller players to crowd Dirk when he faces up (Bowen and Ginobili); having multiple player defend Dirk and using Duncan to rotate over if Dirk posting up or catching the ball over a fronting defender.

Splitter and Diaw are going to be the main options, but I'd expect Kawhi to see crunch time minutes in a couple of those games at the 4. That is unless Dirk gets hot and Pop goes back with Diaw at the 4 and slides Leonard back down to the 3.

If the Spurs go small, Dirk would either have to cover Leonard, Manu, or possibly Green in that situation (assuming Marion would be tasked with guarding Parker or Ginobili).

Mavs closing unit against Spurs Small ball unit

Calderon-Parker
Ellis-Green
Marion-Manu
Dirk-Diaw
Dalembert-Duncan

Potential cross match ups

Marion-Parker
Ellis-Green
Dirk-Manu
Calderon-Leonard
Dalembert-Duncan

that would leave the Mavs vulnerable to post ups from Kawhi not to mention the potential for offensive rebounds for the Spurs.

[cd021]

Record Post-All star Break (as of 4/16/14)

Spurs-24-4 (.857)

Clippers 20-6 (.769)

Thunder 15-10 (.600)

Heat-17-13 (.566)

Pacers-15-14 (.517)

(Italicized are updated to include the games from 4/15)

[Chinook]

Leonard and Diaw are actually pretty close in height within a couple of inches of each other while Leonard is much longer. Diaw does have 20-30lbs on Leonard, which does keep Dirk from backing him down. I'm not so sure Dirk would be able to take advantage of Leonard given the help defense. While Dirk can simply shoot over Leonard, that's really true on any player that the Spurs throw on him. He will get his points but I don't see him torching Leonard late.

I could definitely see Pop using a smaller lineup given its mismatch potential on offense. Pop historically; uses smaller players to crowd Dirk when he faces up (Bowen and Ginobili); having multiple player defend Dirk and using Duncan to rotate over if Dirk posting up or catching the ball over a fronting defender.

Splitter and Diaw are going to be the main options, but I'd expect Kawhi to see crunch time minutes in a couple of those games at the 4. That is unless Dirk gets hot and Pop goes back with Diaw at the 4 and slides Leonard back down to the 3.

If the Spurs go small, Dirk would either have to cover Leonard, Manu, or possibly Green in that situation (assuming Marion would be tasked with guarding Parker or Ginobili).

Mavs closing unit against Spurs Small ball unit

Calderon-Parker
Ellis-Green
Marion-Manu
Dirk-Diaw
Dalembert-Duncan

Potential cross match ups

Marion-Parker
Ellis-Green
Dirk-Manu
Calderon-Leonard
Dalembert-Duncan

that would leave the Mavs vulnerable to post ups from Kawhi not to mention the potential for offensive rebounds for the Spurs.

I think you're underestimating how big of a difference Boris' weight advantage is. Dirk uses his body extremely well even though he takes a lot of jump shots. I don't think there's much Kawhi could even do to slow Dirk down. Despite Kerr's musings, Leonard was not effective on Dirk last Thursday from what I can see.

I see Kawhi as a person who could switch onto Dirk after a screen and do well enough for a possession or so. I don't see him checking Dirk in crunch time unless the Spurs have to play small trying to catch up. I can see your point, but I think the Spurs have too many Dirk defenders to use Leonard there on purpose.

As for the cross-match, I do think Kawhi will have post-up opportunities regardless of whether he checks Dirk. I think Dallas would put a ton of effort to stop Green and Parker, so Leonard and Duncan should get good looks. Unless the Mavs go small with Crowder and Marion as the forwards, I think there are too many holes in Dallas' defense for them to plug up.

[SpursFan86]

Still early...but OKC is actually losing to Detroit. If LAC wins and OKC loses, LAC will get the #2 seed.

[bklynspursfan]

I was shocked to see LAC resting their starters and not even trying to get the #2 seed. Unless Portland is sitting their guys too? Still a little surprising. Maybe they want no part of Memphis

[SpursFan86]

I was shocked to see LAC resting their starters and not even trying to get the #2 seed. Unless Portland is sitting their guys too? Still a little surprising. Maybe they want no part of Memphis

They probably weren't expecting OKC to lose to Detroit at home.

[bklynspursfan]

They probably weren't expecting OKC to lose to Detroit at home.

Yea i don't think anyone was. Or expecting OKC to lose to a Pelicans team without Davis playing. But once they saw them lose against NOP, the #2 seed was up for grabs. But it seems like they're willing to stay @ 3 and probably cause their history w/the Grizz. They're fine playing a Warriors team w/o Bogut and Lee.

[cd021]

Detroit close to win late in OKC. If they win (LAC wins in Portland) OKC drops to the #3 seed and lose home court against LAC (their likely 2nd round opponent)

[N0 LyF3 ScRuB]

Detroit close to win late in OKC. If they win (LAC wins in Portland) OKC drops to the #3 seed and lose home court against LAC (their likely 2nd round opponent)

No bueno. OKC gets a fairly easy first round match. Bogut is out

[Johnny RIngo]

41 FTAs for the Thunder tonight