I think they can if they amnesty Bonner. We don't have a legit SF other than Kawhi. We need a 3-and-D guy down the stretch outside of Kawhi/Green (Green is a 2) then they should've sign a cheap big man like Sims or anyone. Still wished that they should've have sign James Johnson too.
If anything the Dallas series has shown (and the Portland/Houston, Memphis/OKC series too), is that you can pretty much scrap the regular season. It's a very different game out there.
Provided we move on, I would still prefer Portland over Houston, for a number of different reasons. But the Spurs need to be healthy, play better and smarter, no matter who's in front of them.
They couldn't amnestying Bonner wouldn't have meant anything after the Spurs gave Ginobili $7.5 Million.
I agree having a bigger fourth wing would have been nice, especially since last off-season was a buyer's market for threes. This off-season is going to be a player's market. But Green is slightly bigger than the averge SF, and he put up great numbers at the three this year. Even if the Spurs had signed a SF instead of Beli, they still should have gone with a three-wing rotation in the playoffs.
I don't even know what to tell you about that. I think people would be ing that player X is taking Kawhi's minutes.
Perhaps more puzzling than that, is the fact that Pop is playing a 22 year old only a little over 30 mins in the playoffs. It might have to do with the fact that Pop loves certain lineup combos and Kawhi might not be in one of them, but still, I think Kawhi should be there a lot of the time, even if he's still hesitant on offense here and there.
Yeah. Pop is still playing like it's the regular season. That's okay against an older team like Dallas, since they also run 10 deep. But it's suicide against Portland or Houston. Leonard and Green can both take major minutes. Mills and Beli should be fighting for a spot. We shouldn't see Mills at the two to close out games while Green and Leonard (and Splitter) are on the bench.
never happened, NEVER.
I think the rationale with the rotations have a lot to do with Tony not being in tip top shape, Dalembert giving Tim some fits, and the fact that Dirk can really score anytime he wants more or less... we just need more scoring. It's a lot easier to play defensive minded complementary players when you have one, two, three guys that can carry the load offensively. That's why it's maddening when they're missing layups and freebies. Every point is a premium in this series.
Could be wrong, but I also don't see a potential matchup with Houston or Portland playing out the same...not just the rotations, but how they defend us and the problems we would need to address if we face them.
One of the reports I was seeing was Dallas now being concerned with the front court and taking their chances with our outside shooting, which is why they got swept in the regular season. Call me crazy but I dont see Dallas being serious about letting us shoot even if our 3-ball has not been at its best this series.
Do you'll see RC playing Blair more minutes tonight, going off of what he saw in Game 4, or do you think he stays with Dalembert in the 4th? Additionally, I'd be fine with Dirk going nuts, as long as Carter/Harris/Ellis can be held in check.
Oh, I agree with you. But I think Pop's stuck between wanting the system to generate shots and wanting players create offense on their own. I think it's a mistake if he thinks Beli and especially Mills are good enough individual scorers to break through Dallas' defense. Leonard is probably the most capable of the non Parker or Ginobili perimeter players at getting his own shot, and he will almost always have a mismatch whenever he's on the floor. He's a much better offensive option than hoping Marco gets hot. Maybe if Pop plays Green on Ellis primarily, Leonard can focus more on offense and playing passing lanes on defense. Mills can score when he's part of the system, but he's probably behind Joseph when it comes to creating his own shot.
The answer to me seems to be to rely on the Big Three, Diaw and Splitter to continue scoring the bulk of the points, and focus on getting Leonard going as opposed to Beli or Mills. Since this is an elimination game for Dallas, if the Spurs can have a strong first quarter, it could force Carlisle to change his defense to allow more open shots from three. That's when the other smalls have to hit their shots. Before then, the other players need to focus on slowing down Dallas' offense, which they have the talent and discipline to do. But they can't do it if Pop keeps trying to play Beli and Mills just because he wants more offense.
I agree about a potential second-round matchup with Portland or Houston. I think Pop will be inclined to shorten his rotation as he did against Golden State last year. But if he plays Green and Leonard a combined 46mpg while rolling with Beli and Mills for 28-32mpg, I think it will spell disaster. Both Portland and Houston play their starters heavy minutes, and Pop should play his starters almost as many to counter, especially the Medium Three since they're all young enough to handle a larger workload. We all know that each series is it's own animal (with it's own cast of heros and goats that get determined through the course of that series) and that Pop is going to try to play as many players as he can get away with. But he can't be too stubborn about it.
I actually think what Pop wants from Beli and Marco is to have a couple of mid-range shooters when everything else fails. Mills is a guy that only needs a solid screen to get a shot off. Beli spaces the floor, but should somebody drop the ball at him at the last second, he's a guy that can make a mid-range jumper. It's really about adding a bit of versatility so we don't end up dying with either the contested 3 or the points in the paint. Obviously that theory only holds if they're making shots in a relative consistent basis, which so far they have not (and it's a big reason we struggle to score at times). Green, IMO, doesn't fit in that capacity. He has a sweet 3 point stroke, but I don't think he's confident enough in his mid-range. Kawhi is also coming along in that department, but I also think sometimes is a bit too hesitant.
I'm a big fan of defense, and I wouldn't have a problem with Danny getting some, if not most of Beli's minutes, but on the other hand, I know Tony is in no shape to play 40+ mins and have his motor on all the time. Last season? sure. Not this season (so far). So Mills is going to have to play, and he's going to have to make his shots. Pop knows right now he can only get about 30 productive minutes from Tony, if that, so he's gonna have to play some other people and hope to make up some of the production. The Mavs might figure out by this game how to help better on Dirk in P&R situations, and then maybe Manu/Tiago becomes less productive. So now you have another production hole to fill. In a way, some of this decisions are made in-game and on a game to game basis. See what's working, go to it more, etc.
I wouldn't bet money on the shortened rotation if I were you...
IMO, it will largely depend on these guys getting out of their slump or staying in it. Patty went from shooting 46% to 30%. Marco went from 48% to 36%. It's a huge drop in both cases to just pencil them as something the Dallas D is doing.
But different series give you different defense, different looks. Moving on from a series even if you sucked, can give you some extra motivation to fight through it.
I would suspect Pop will keep riding them, at least for a while. Pop is pretty staunch about riding the guys that brought you there.
Beli was signed to run the PnR in case Manu couldn't pull his own weight like last year... There's no reason to play him at this point... As a spot up shooter Danny Green is just too superior to ignore... There's no excuse for Pop pulling a Scott Brooks there...
Well, Leonard and Joseph are both very good midrange shooters, each having a higher percentage on long twos than Beli and Mills. And both Cory and Kawhi would come with the added benefit of being able to get their own shots from midrange. If that's what the Spurs want from their role-players on offense, then it still doesn't make sense to play Mills and Beli. You add in defense, and it's no question.
But it's not like Mills gets his own shots very often. He was better at Beli at doing so during the season but I wouldn't exactly feel confident in him doing it in the big moments, especially after looking at the series so far. I think the idea that Pop should play Mills for offense is somewhat misguided, because he can just call more plays for Green and Leonard. If Pop doesn't think the team can play in Parker Mode for 40 minutes a game, them he should switch to other modes. Maybe he should reduce the amount of minutes Parker and Ginobili share on the court so that one of them is on the floor at all times. Maybe he should feed the ball to Diaw in the post more often and let Boris create. Maybe he should play Green Mode more often or make it a priority for Leonard to get the ball in the post. I just don't think that playing better offensive players is the key to improving the scoring.I'm a big fan of defense, and I wouldn't have a problem with Danny getting some, if not most of Beli's minutes, but on the other hand, I know Tony is in no shape to play 40+ mins and have his motor on all the time. Last season? sure. Not this season (so far). So Mills is going to have to play, and he's going to have to make his shots. Pop knows right now he can only get about 30 productive minutes from Tony, if that, so he's gonna have to play some other people and hope to make up some of the production. The Mavs might figure out by this game how to help better on Dirk in P&R situations, and then maybe Manu/Tiago becomes less productive. So now you have another production hole to fill. In a way, some of this decisions are made in-game and on a game to game basis. See what's working, go to it more, etc.
He's going to try to run out a 10-man rotation. He tried doing so in the Finals last year. But I doubt he ends up sticking with one if the bench struggles defensively. To me, that's the bigger concern. Offensively, everyone should have an easier time of things in a potential WCSF, as I agree with you that the other teams won't be as successful gameplanning against the Spurs as Carlisle is. But I think it could end up being even worse defensively if Pop insist on playing Mills 18 mpg in place of Tony, especially in a lineup that does not include either Green or Leonard for long stretches. Lillard, Williams and Batum, or Harden, Lin and Parsons would each play big minutes against the second unit, and if the Spurs bench is having a hard time guarding Devin Harris, Calderon and Carter, they could really struggle.I wouldn't bet money on the shortened rotation if I were you...
IMO, it will largely depend on these guys getting out of their slump or staying in it. Patty went from shooting 46% to 30%. Marco went from 48% to 36%. It's a huge drop in both cases to just pencil them as something the Dallas D is doing.
But different series give you different defense, different looks. Moving on from a series even if you sucked, can give you some extra motivation to fight through it.
I would suspect Pop will keep riding them, at least for a while. Pop is pretty staunch about riding the guys that brought you there.
Corey hasn't earned any playoff minutes yet and I would have serious reservations about putting him the floor.
Personally, I don't consider either of them being more comfortable with their shot than Mills or Beli. And while it's possible that they post better numbers from mid-range, I don't think they command the attention that pure shooters do. If I look at it from the other side, I suspect Carlisle wouldn't lose sleep with Corey or Kawhi taking an open mid-range jumper. I personally wouldn't. Obviously both Mills and Beli shooting have been ass this series, but I'm talking more in broad terms, taking into account what their primary skill is.
Well, except for the first two games, I though Mills generally did ok on defense. Corey might do a better job, but if Devin Harris is jacking up 3s and making them at a rate way above his head, I don't expect that switching a warm body in front of him will change that. My main concern with Mills is that he's got the open shots and only more or less made them in Game 4. I didn't think the looks have been any worse or different than what he's always taken, and made. Beli is a different story, because to me, he's basically what Bonner, Neal or Mason used to be for us. His value is entirely on offense, and if he doesn't have it going, then I have no problem with a quicker hook, and Danny getting his minutes. What's annoying about Beli is that he's not even a streaky guy, his jumper was, until this series, relatively consistent. He just hasn't been able to knock them down.
The minute discrepancy is going to be there no matter who we play. Our best guys just can't play that long. We knew this when the season started, and that's why we rely on the bench the way we do. It has been a recurring theme for the last couple of seasons and at this point it is what it is. We depend a whole lot more on role-players than your average team. I get what you're saying about giving more time to the medium-3 than the bottom-3, but we'll see. I don't want to get too far ahead, let's cross this bridge and then we'll get to that.
I understand what you're saying, but I don't think it's about Carlisle feeling good about leaving Kawhi and Cory open. It's about them making enough midrange shots that Carlisle can't leave them open as the game wears on. Right now, Green, Beli and Mills are the ones making Carlisle lose sleep. They do a fine job spacing the floor. What people are clamoring about now is them JUST spacing the floor and not getting a lot of good looks (Green more than the other two). When you're talking about one or two games here, I feel production is more important than reputation. So Cory and Leonard making their long twos seems more important to me than Beli and Mills just being threats to do so, especially when the shot clock is running down like you suggested a couple of posts ago.
I know it's not entirely fair to lump Mills and Beli together. Patty has brought everything else besides scoring (which I don't think it all that much, but whatever), while Beli has brought nothing when his shots haven't gone in. But I think you're underestimating the potential effect of upgrading the defense from the backup PG spot. It isn't just that Joseph would be able to defend Harris. He could switch onto Ellis so that Ginobili would have an easier assignment. He'd stand a better chance against Carter than Mills would. It would be harder to penetrate for Harris if he had a bigger guy with sounder defensive fundamentals on him. Adding a strong defender into a lineup makes everyone's jobs easier, hence why on/off numbers are considered so important for judging defensive players.Well, except for the first two games, I though Mills generally did ok on defense. Corey might do a better job, but if Devin Harris is jacking up 3s and making them at a rate way above his head, I don't expect that switching a warm body in front of him will change that. My main concern with Mills is that he's got the open shots and only more or less made them in Game 4. I didn't think the looks have been any worse or different than what he's always taken, and made. Beli is a different story, because to me, he's basically what Bonner, Neal or Mason used to be for us. His value is entirely on offense, and if he doesn't have it going, then I have no problem with a quicker hook, and Danny getting his minutes. What's annoying about Beli is that he's not even a streaky guy, his jumper was, until this series, relatively consistent. He just hasn't been able to knock them down.
I agree that the Big Three won't and can't play the minutes that other team's stars can, but the Spurs have the best 4-7s in the league. The Medium Three can certainly play 100-110mpg in big games. The Big Three are going to play about 95-100mpg themselves. That should leave 30-45mpg for Diaw and the other rotation players. Considering Boris will get 24-30 of those to himself, there really isn't a need for two or three other players to get minutes outside of foul trouble, situational possessions and garbage time. It's not even a question of diminishing returns. The splits suggest Green and Leonard handle big minutes just fine. (Their efficiency goes up slightly and their advanced stats look good.) Pop would just be sitting them to sit them.The minute discrepancy is going to be there no matter who we play. Our best guys just can't play that long. We knew this when the season started, and that's why we rely on the bench the way we do. It has been a recurring theme for the last couple of seasons and at this point it is what it is. We depend a whole lot more on role-players than your average team. I get what you're saying about giving more time to the medium-3 than the bottom-3, but we'll see. I don't want to get too far ahead, let's cross this bridge and then we'll get to that.
Cojo to me is not an NBA caliber player right now. We probably disagree about this, and obviously, a debate about that does not really favor me looking at this series with the way Mills or Beli are playing, but nevertheless, while Mills might be an advantage here or there for Dallas, I feel like Cojo is an advantage all the time. Just my opinion, nothing empirical, just the impression after watching 82 games this season.
Kawhi is a different story, I think he's improved a lot, but he's still too hesitant at times, and that actually let's the defense settle. I hate it when he does that. It really kills whatever advantage he has. He also has a long ways to go finishing at the rim outside of a dunk. He's a kid, he's still learning the ropes, so I won't be harsh on him. Plus he normally brings some solid defense and rebounding.
I'm gonna disagree. Monta is doing his most effective scoring off hand-offs and moving screens. Outside of Danny or Kawhi loosening up the ball from behind, it really doesn't matter who guards him. You basically need a guy that will put his hand up and don't buy on pump fakes whenever he decides to shoot. The rest has to come from the bigs protecting the penetration and paint. Maybe I'm wrong, but I feel Cojo would actually be a detriment to our offense compared to a "serviceable" Mills.
It's all about Cory's mentality. If he's in garbage-time mode, he can put a lot more pressure on a defense inside the arch than Mills can. He can finish as well as anyone outside of Parker and Ginobili, and he can finish with contract. His problem is more that he hasn't found a balance between being aggressive and being reckless. But that's not a huge deal in this series since we're talking about him playing the two-guard and thusly focusing on secondary penetration off Ginobili and Parker's initial drive. Defensively, Joseph's size helps him fight over screens as well as play more effect full-court pressure defense (with his length allowing him to disrupt more and his weight allowing him to absorb more contact). There's a reason why having strong fundamental defenders like Green, Leonard and Ginobili now that he's feeling good seems to contain Ellis better than putting Beli, Parker or Mills on him.
I was trying to put my finger on what is it exactly that makes me feel the way I do about Corey's game after I posted that... and I guess the closest answer is that I don't trust him. As you said, sometimes he will make a great play, finish strong at the rim, be a pest on defense... and sometimes he'll just dribble aimlessly, ball looks like a hot potato in his hand. Or he'll miss a completely obvious rotation, and then go ahead and do it again the next possession. And it's not even he doesn't know he ed up, you can see he does and it's hard on himself about it. I just don't see a level of professionalism in him yet that would would make me comfortable with him with a regular role in high stakes games like the playoffs.
I'd agree Cory is erratic. But I think that's severely reduced when he's playing such a small role. He's scrappy, which is such an important quality that it's pretty much the only thing keeping Mills in the rotation with his shots not falling. The Spurs need that energy at random moments, and unlike Mills, Cory provides more solid upside. It's not steal or allowing a basket for him. He can just play solid on-ball defense without gambling. I know it's just my opinion, but I'd rather a player miss an assignment because they checked out than allowing a basket because they're physically limited. Both Mills and Joseph are sort of wildcards, but I feel better about Cory doing his job than I do about Mills doing his when he isn't scoring.
wasting the MLE on Marco/Ayres - two of the worst players in the NBA
" Blair. He called out Pop on his tyness" - you homers
What do you think of Manu in the playoffs, brother?
Insert some witty retort about sausages or sports cars here.
Been great. But had a lot to do with the L today smh
I mean, sure he did. But he's 37 years old. You can't expect him to play near flawless error free BB every game...
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