Reply With Quote
Great read and very interesting stats
Green's defense was great last night. I noticed how he was switching more on Westbrook/Durant throughout the second half, felt it was an underrated part of the game.
tl;dr: Look at the charts. Leonard was pretty good but not the best defender for the Spurs, Duncan’s a borderline liability, and jumping at three-point shooters is the smart strategy.
Sorry in advance, but this is going to be a long-assed post.
During last year’s Finals, I started a thread quantifying the perimeter defense of the Spurs’ players against Heat players (mainly their Big Three, Allen and Chalmers). With all the talk about how the Spurs are going to defend OKC and who was going to guard whom, and who was most effective, I decided to make a similar thread for this series. As of now, it will only focus on Durant, Westbrook and Jackson, but if there are other scorers (like Fisher in Game One), I’ll cover them for that game.
I’ll say now that my numbers aren't necessarily going to be the same as those from other sources. I’m defining defensive assignments differently that many folks do, so I’ll assign blame and credit differently as a result. A big difference will be that I will emphasis help defense. Help defenders will get the credit coming over to challenge a shot, but they usually won’t get blame if the shot goes in. If the help man misses a rotation, is in bad position or needlessly fouls, he’ll get blamed. But if he’s just put in a bad position, the original defender will get the mark.
The biggest caveat to all this is that the best defense is to not even allow a shot. In that regard, the numbers may be a little misleading, especially for Leonard, who’s best man-defensive attribute in my opinion is ball-denial. For the most part, the analysis will also ignore possessions that don’t end in shots, fouls or turnovers. All in all, take these numbers for what they are, but don’t forget to look for context. My opinion is no better than anyone else’s.
Now let’s get on with the stats.
DurantMakes Misses Fouls Turnover PPP Leonard 7 4 0 1 1.416667 Green 0 3 0 1 0 Belinelli 0 1 0 0 0 Duncan 1 0 1 0 3 Splitter 0 1 1 1 0.666667 Ginobili 2 0 1 1 2 Baynes 0 0 0 2 0 Total 10 9 3 6 1.076923
The biggest takeaway from all this is that Durant was successful when he actually shot against Leonard. Kawhi continues to struggle in transition, which led to KD making three shots from distance as the trailer on the break. I thought Leonard had a pretty strong defensive game overall against Durant, especially since Kawhi didn’t foul him once. I am interested in seeing where this matchup goes. Durant may not make as many tough shots again, but Leonard may also not be able to avoid fouling again.
Pop was correct when he said the supporting cast did an awesome job on Durant. Green was very good when switched on to KD, and the bigs besides Duncan were tremendous with their help. I’ll talk more about team defense later on, but OKC simply can’t win in this series if Durant can’t score on other players besides Kawhi.
Westbrook Makes Misses Fouls Turnover PPP Leonard 1 1 0 1 0.666667 Green 2 2 1 2 0.857143 Parker 2 2 1 1 1.166667 Duncan 2 0 2 0 2.333333 Splitter 1 2 0 0 0.333333 Diaw 0 1 0 0 0 Ginobili 1 1 0 0 1 Baynes 0 1 0 0 0 Total 9 12 4 4 0.862069
More of the same. Leonard and Green were good, and the bigs who aren't HoFers were great. Not much to really say about Russ.
JacksonMakes Misses Fouls Turnover PPP Green 0 2 0 0 0 Parker 0 1 0 0 0 Belinelli 2 0 0 0 2.5 Mills 0 0 1 1 0 Duncan 1 1 0 0 1 Diaw 1 0 0 0 2 Ginobili 2 1 0 0 1.333333 Total 6 5 0 1 1.08333
Beli’s a bad defender, and Diaw can’t guard Jackson. Everything else is pretty typical.
Fisher Makes Misses Fouls Turnover PPP Parker 0 1 0 0 0 Belinelli 1 0 0 0 3 Mills 3 0 2 0 2.2 Duncan 0 1 0 0 0 Total 4 6 2 1 1.454545
Mills was not good defensively, but he did a decent job contesting a couple of Fisher’s shots. He can’t foul him, though. I don’t think the Spurs need to switch up their defense too much, but Pop needs to tell Patty to stick to Fisher and not help at all.
General Takeaways:
I don’t think I can stress how horrible Duncan’s team defense was last night. It had no redeeming qualities. He can’t hedge on the PnR, but he also can’t sink fast enough to stop Westbrook or Durant from driving. I honestly don’t know how many minutes Tim can be on the floor if the Thunder aren’t playing big. HoFer or not, he’s probably not going to be a huge plus in this series.
The thing I liked most about the Green/Leonard defensive combo is that it completely negated the 1/3 Pnr the Thunder run with Westbrook and Durant. Danny and Kawhi would just switch it, and neither Thunder player could take advantage. OKC had early success running the 1/3 PnR early in the game when Parker was on Westbrook, since Kawhi couldn’t switch. Leonard instead had to hedge, which he did poorly, and the end result was both Russ and KD running free. Pop tried initially to counter this by using Manu to guard Westbrook, and that worked pretty well, too.
Baynes had a beautiful defensive stretch when he can in at the end of the third. He sacrificed his body well, and he moved his feet better that I’ve ever seen him do. It’s actually pretty amazing that the Spurs’ third-string center would be OKC’s best defensive big right now. Splitter was tremendous as always, save for Durant’s first foul when Tiago was late with his help. Diaw was fine when he was allowed to play as a big, but he needs to do a better job defending the perimeter when he plays as a forward.
Green was absolutely electric defensively in Game One. He was able to give help and also completely negate Sef and Fisher when he guarded them. It’s very interesting that Pop is using him as a “free-safety” on defense, allowing him to pretty much guard everyone. When Danny plays like this, he needs to play more. No exceptions.
Three-point Defense:
Some fans seem to be very concerned with the way the Spurs defend the three-point line after giving help. The concern is mostly centered around the way Green (and others, but the fans forget that) jumps out at shooters instead of just running toward them with a hand up. So for those fans, I decided to look at every three-point attempt prior to garbage time and see how they were contested, and what the results were.
Just for clarification, I broke down the contests into two categories: hard close-outs and soft close-outs. I defined hard close-outs as those in which the defender moves past the shooter while running, as opposed to soft close-outs where the defender stays in position. Threes where the defender was already there are discounted from this discussion, obviously.
Key: m=made three; x=miss; t=made two; f=foul; p=pass
Soft Shooter Result Splitter Collison x Diaw Bulter t Diaw Butler f Diaw Butler p Green Butler f Mills Fisher m Beli Jackson t Parker Butler f Parker Fisher x
Hard Shooter Result Green Sef x Green Sef x Green Sef x Mills Fish m Green Butler x Parker Sef x Ginobili Sef p Leonard Durant m Baynes Butler x Parker Butler x
It’s pretty clear which type of close-out is more effective. The only makes off hard-closes came on a Fisher reset and on Durant calmly draining a three after Leonard gave a half-hearted hard close (meaning he just ran by him without jumping, neither disrupting the shot nor staying in position). The Thunder only made one three off a soft close-out, but they scored on all but three of those possessions. Simply put, just running after a player with a hand up isn’t a huge deterrent to NBA players. You have to make them uncomfortable. Also, soft-closes are just as inclined to be out of control as hard-closes are, as evidenced by the five times the shooters were able to just drive past the closing defender.
It’s also pretty clear that the type of close-out that occurs is not dependent on the defender, but rather on the shooter. Players closed out hard on Sefalosha without fail, but were much more cautious with Butler, who’s more of a threat inside the arc. Which type of closeout the players use is something that Pop puts into his game plan. I hope that clears some things up, and I’ll keep track of these numbers throughout the series.
Any feedback would be appreciated. Criticism is also welcome. These are homemade stats, so I may well have missed somethings/made some errors. Feel free to point them out or ask for clarification.
Last edited by Chinook; 05-20-2014 at 06:53 PM.
Great read and very interesting stats
Green's defense was great last night. I noticed how he was switching more on Westbrook/Durant throughout the second half, felt it was an underrated part of the game.
I don't have a problem with hard-closeouts. I have a problem with players jumping out of control during said hard-closeouts. As I said in the other thread, it's not about "hard-closeout vs soft-closeout".
I much prefer the "run past the player" than "jumping over the player"...
I appreciate the work you did here, and I'm hoping you'll update it as the series go on. It's difficult to draw many conclusions with these numbers due to sample size. Thanks
Thanks. I agree about sample size. It's just much easier to do the stats after each game and combine them than it is to do them all at the end. And it gives us something to talk about during the off days.
I much prefer the "run past the player" than "jumping over the player"...
I appreciate the work you did here, and I'm hoping you'll update it as the series go on. It's difficult to draw many conclusions with these numbers due to sample size. Thanks
Simply running past a shooter is much worse than jumping. The only hard-close that didn't include jumping was Leonard's close on Durant's three. That was actually horrible D, because he neither made Durant change his shot nor did he stay in the play. In all other cases, te defenders did exactly what Green is critcized of doing.
I largely disagree with this, but you already know that
When a player's feet leaves the floor, they have a whole lot less control and opens up a different can of worms, especially against seasoned players for reasons we already went through.
It's absolutely true that Danny is not the only one to do that, tough, but I do notice he's been doing more often than everybody else. I think he's good enough to contest under control, it's just a matter of habit.
Looking forward to the next edition of this report. Great job!
Is Ray Allen part of the big 3 instead of Bosh?
AKA my numbers are skewed to make Danny Green look good and to prove that Leonard is "overrated" by spurs fans.I’ll say now that my numbers aren't necessarily going to be the same as those from other sources. I’m defining defensive assignments differently that many folks do
As far as perimeter players go.
Lol. They were actually generous to Leonard, since Duncan and Splitter picked up negative plays Kawhi would have had otherwise. If anything, my numbers lessen the disparity between Danny and Kawhi from last game. It wasn't really close.
This will be fun to follow. Thanks
Nice write up and analysis.
Good read! Thanks Chinook!
This is why Leonard's one of best perimeter defenders in the league, because his overall defense. Some players are good at one or two things on D, Leonard is so good at of most things.
-Durant finished shooting 6/15 on contested and 4/4 on his uncontested shotsI am interested in seeing where this matchup goes. Durant may not made as many tough shots again, but Leonard may also not be able to avoid fouling again
-he had only one FGA that was less than 10 ft from rim
-he took 5 attempts less, it means he wasn't too comfortable
-he had six turnovers
-he couldn't get his 12 free throws pg.
Kawhi -98.1- and Danny -97.8- are near the top in defensive rating in playoffs but we all know Pop...and nobody should be surprised to see Manu or Beli playing more minutes next games if Green's 3's aren't falling or Leonard is in foul trouble.
Green played 27' in Game 1, Leonard 39' so, Pop can finally play these two guys 40' in a playoffs game?
thanks for the analysis - i'm a big fan of hard close-outs if it means you aren't fouling and you force an out-of-rhythm shot, it's a win.
Like OP said, it depends on the shooter, but should also depend on the shot clock situation.
We have the hard closeout vs soft closeout argument for my rec. league team every week.
Very interesting and a lot of work.
Some fans just don't understand it seems. The spurs are in this position because they play guys 1 through 9. I understand certain players getting an increase in minutes in different series etc. for different purposes but spur fan complain that Leonard isn't playing 40 and then when he is they complain green isn't playing 40. It's like they want the spurs to only play 5 guys vs 5 guys against these playoff teams the entire game. We would lose. The spurs main strength is their bench and the fact that every player brings something different. Opponents aren't allowed to get comfortable with what the spurs are doing because they play 9 guys who all play a different style. Shortening the rotation to 5 or 6 guys doesn't work for the spurs. Stop asking for it. Certain guys need to play more depending on matchups but the spurs won't go away from the bench and they shouldn't.
Interesting analysis, though I'm not sure we can really take away much from it given the small sample size and because, as you said, the best defense is not allowing the offensive player to get off a shot.
Leonard was getting killed by screens, very similar to George Hill against Steve Nash in 2010. Tho Leonard has played much better defense on Durant than what he showed last night.
Last edited by Spurs da champs; 05-20-2014 at 09:01 PM.
I really don't understand this take, EN. Obviously, Pop coaches Danny and others to "run" players off the 3pt line. If he didn't want the flybye move, then the first time it happens in a game he would lose his and pull Green or said player. It happened 3 times in the first Green stint last night, and I believe all 3 times resulted in a missed shot.I largely disagree with this, but you already know that
When a player's feet leaves the floor, they have a whole lot less control and opens up a different can of worms, especially against seasoned players for reasons we already went through.
It's absolutely true that Danny is not the only one to do that, tough, but I do notice he's been doing more often than everybody else. I think he's good enough to contest under control, it's just a matter of habit.
Looking forward to the next edition of this report. Great job!
This is not the player's decision, they are coached this way. So unless you're disagreeing with Pop, I don't get your take. It's not on the player.
Great writeup, btw Chinook. Appreciate the analysis and numbers, fine read.
Thanks, Chi
Thanks Chinook..
I don't understand why Posters here continue to blast me for last night..I said Timmy was Phenomenal offensively but he was so bad defensively that he doesn't deserve an A..
SMH...
Chinook continues to solidify himself as a top poster up here.
Great job.
Running players off the 3pt line don't have to include jumping at them. The vast majority of NBA players (including most of the Spurs in most of the hard closeouts) actually do not do that. I don't know a single coach that thinks that leaving your feet when you're running full speed at a shooter is a good idea. That's not to say that some players do actually do it *occasionally*. I know Manu, Kawhi, Marco have done it. It's simply a risky move. Once you're in the air, you no longer have control of where you're going to land, and some players will make you pay for it (which is where this argument started from). I'm speaking generally. Not every player will make you pay, and not every play that involves a player jumping at a shooter is bad defense.
Chinook argument is that jumping at them is actually better than putting a hand up on them, and while I respect his opinion, I don't think that's accurate either. There's actually reasons why coaches teach to defend the jump shot the way players do. For example, there's a reason why you should use only one hand up as opposed to both hands up (defending with both hands up increases the possibility of contact with the shooter's elbows, which is a foul most of the time).
I don't necessarily have a problem if Danny thinks he's athletic enough to get up there and actually block a release. He might've actually been successful at that at some point. I just don't think it's a wise idea to do it as often as he does it. Just my opinion though.
BTW, I also make my Italian heritage proud, and I'm a hardheaded mofo, so don't even try
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)
Posting Permissions
