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But but but LeBron left the game.
It was hot.
It wasn't fair because LeBron wasn't there.
Asterisk if we win.
The Spurs, on the whole, are given a 78.5% chance of winning the entire series.
Read more: http://espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2014...-spurs-favored
But but but LeBron left the game.
It was hot.
It wasn't fair because LeBron wasn't there.
Asterisk if we win.
What's amazing is that these projections were made even before the series started. To think that the Spurs winning in 4 is more likely than the Heat winning in 6 is just mind boggling.
No way we don't win in 5 if we win Sunday... Maybe 6 if we lose.
Ive had a feeling we're goin to sweep and Duncan gets finals MVP.
then spurs come back and repeat in 15 and duncan and manu retire, and then kawhi green, daye, bertans and splitter lead SA to a 3 peat!
I'd be fine with a sweep but given how close Game 1 was, I'd say it's rather optimistic to think this series will be so short...
Idk, I think it's stupid
Not "short" but, we played utterly terrible and found a way to win by 15, with or without LeBron that's an incredible. 23 turnovers is not something we will repeat...
Surely. At the same time I don't think we will have 31-9 runs in the 4th every game either...
4 is probably too much, but yesterday the team looked so superior. If only they could have cut the turnovers, it could have been a blowout.
The sensation is that there'll be no drop in the Spurs' performance going forward, there's no "wait, they can't possibly keep shooting like this, or passing like this or being this lucky", cause they actually weren't extraordinary at any of that, they just ing outassisted, outteamplayed their opponent (Manu! Dat BRAIN he has!!! Brain manuhaters lack). Maybe there's even room for improvment and we get the sweep, who knows. Of course, there's still the Heat on the other side.
This isn't going to be a sweep. All the fun of the victory and Lebron cramping out aside... That's still a very good team who can win this series if the Spurs don't take care of business every game. Even if we're lucky and they get a 3-0 lead they aren't winning game 4.
I'm very hopeful for Spurs in 5 but I just want a championship win however it comes.
From memory the Spurs shot 58% or so. That's quite close to extraordinary when it comes to the NBA Finals.
Hmm, oh well, it didn't look like XD
Yes indeed, thats pretty extraordinary...
Still, dont know, I don't know much about basket, I don't follow stats much, but before all the 4th quarter shoots began to fall in, I sensed the spurs were the superior team.
And, I mean, well, there's a big difference as well when a team has somthg like 60% shooting with a shot selection that includes contested shots and so on, and a team that has 60% shooting because their team basketball takes them there. Big difference.
Betting sites the two most favorited outcomes were Spurs in 7 for the Spurs and Miami in 6. With the Spurs in 7 being the the most favorite odds. Either team in 4 was like +1000 and higher
Makes no ing sense. I don't buy this.
Stupid thread. Will bump once heat win
It's likely just some statistical average over all finals or playoff 7 game series in which the home team won the first game. Spurs still have to go out and beat the defending champs 3 more games out of 6, with 2 games likely lost in Miami.
I think this part is easily visible to anyone who watches the games:
When LeBron is on the floor, the Heat are slightly better than the Spurs simply due to his super-s om. But the Heat have no one else who can really match the Spurs overall greatness. So when LeBron leaves the court (which he will have to at some point), the Spurs will go on runs due to their superior bench and gain those points back, plus 3 points on average, per game.LeBron James is the best player on the planet, with a staggeringly high, league-leading RPM value of plus-9.19. That's the number of points he contributes to the Heat per 100 possessions (both offensive and defensive possessions).
Yet the Spurs still come out with a decisive edge in our analysis. In fact, the RPM model says they are better than the Heat by about 3 points per game (3.5 points per 100 possessions).
Why? In a word: depth. The Spurs have a ridiculous number of really good players, sporting eight guys on the roster with an RPM rating of plus-2.0 or better. That's high enough to start sniffing All-Star territory. In stark contrast, Miami has a top-heavy talent distribution, forcing the Heat to hand out key playoff minutes to players with negative RPM values, which drags down their net efficiency.
At the end of the day, the Spurs' depth prevails, big time.
I still think we lose at least 2 in Miami, as they will have home court, ref advantage, crowd and their role players will come up big. But HCA is huge here, as when it gets back to SATown, we will be prohibitive favorites because of advantages in almost every category, except for best player on the court.
And if Miami doesn't get all those home advantages (like if the role players choke, or they don't get home-baked calls), then I can see the Spurs winning much easier, like in 5.
We won't need to either.
It's not! These projections were made BEFORE Game 1 using ESPN's new Real-Plus Minus stat.
I don't buy it. The Heat came damn close to winning last night and might have if James had not gone out with cramps.
I predicted the Spurs in 5, but my predictions are rarely correct.
Yet I doubt a sweep is realistic judging from the first game.
I dont know about you guys but the spurs seemed superior for most of the time lebron was in the game. even when they called bosh's 4 point play they had barely gotten over the hump and had a lead.. before that they would make runs and spurs were still up by a few points.
The thing about odds is that they typically factor in more than one iteration of an event and what the likely outcome would be in a large sample size. That goes out the window when you get down to one sample only.
I see how it's interesting fodder for discussion, but it's meaningless.
Maybe we were watching different games but I seem to recall the Spurs having 10 turnovers in the 3rd and being down going into the 4th. I don't consider that superior.
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