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How about second chance opportunities, which was a fatal factor for us in the closing moments of Game 6 last year?
Obviously, the games haven't been played yet. I am in the process of making the template for the Finals (which will hopefully be more automated and therefore easier to compile after each game). I wanted to know if any posters had any a priori suggestions for things they'd like me to focus on. Obviously, I plan to cover the defense against the Heatles, and perhaps players like Allen, Lewis or others who provide a lot of scoring on a game-by-game basis. But I also like adding a couple of additional features to my breakdowns (especially with the longer turnarounds between games). For the WCF, I covered three-point close-outs and Durant's Game Two defense. I don't necessarily want to do those again.
So yeah, ideas? PnR defense, maybe? Or post defense? Let me know. I'll probably see how Game One goes and come up with some features afterwards, but it's always nice to know what foci you have before you actually start taking data. More statistically honest that way.
How about second chance opportunities, which was a fatal factor for us in the closing moments of Game 6 last year?
That's an idea, as is fast-break points, since that's always something to watch out for against Miami. Thanks for the input.
Right now, I'm thinking I want to do two a priori, running, features (essentially the ones I am currently asking after suggestions for) and one or two a posteriori features that I decide to look at on a game-by-game basis.
Also, feel free to post alternative defensive stats this time, people. I believe that happened only once in the OKC thread. I don't see anything wrong with competing analyses in this thread. I'm not doing these write-ups to try to dominate the discussion. This thread is for all points of view.
Anything you can provide in these areas is most appreciated and definitely adds to the respectability of this board.That's an idea, as is fast-break points, since that's always something to watch out for against Miami. Thanks for the input.
Right now, I'm thinking I want to do two a priori, running, features (essentially the ones I am currently asking after suggestions for) and one or two a posteriori features that I decide to look at on a game-by-game basis.
I'm most interested in the shots we "give" to Bron and those he takes, and to some degree Wade as well since he doesn't shoot from distance. There was a lot of talk last year about how we "dared" Bron to shoot from midrange and out and how he utterly failed until game 7, but I'd like to see the numbers game by game, and the adjustments around those numbers.
Any decisions on what you are going look at?
Don't want to reveal quite yet. Still thinking about how to format things.
I'm wondering if the Spurs would employ a defense similar to what they did to Nash/Stoudemire between 2004-2008: Let Stoudemire go off and keep Nash/Marion/Marbury and others in check. Not that I'm comparing Stoudemire to Lebron, but you get the idea.
I'm mostly interested in Wade, if you start letting him score you're really facing an uphill battle...
Points off turnovers, split into: fastbreak, motion (play doesn't stop but it's not a fastbreak) and halfcourt (play is stopped for whatever reason and an inbound pass occurs).
Sorry that I missed this post until now. I didn't really include that in my breakdown. Good news is that Coach Nick took care of that for me.
tl;dr: Charts are your friends. Also check the "general takeaways" section.
All right, guys. Here’s my breakdown for Game One of the Finals. For anyone who didn’t read my similar thread for the WCF, this is just a thread where I post stats charting covering individual defensive possessions of Spurs defenders on their opponents, essentially leading up to PPP (points per possession) allowed. These are home-grown stats, meaning I collected them from watching the games myself. I don’t use the same standards to assign credit/blame on possessions as many other people do; therefore, my numbers will almost certainly differ from other sources. Feel free to post alternative numbers, and to ask for clarification at any point.
My method for writing these breakdowns has changed since the last series. The biggest difference is that I am now charting EVERY Spurs defensive possession for each game, as opposed to the last series, where I just charted the possessions of the Thunder’s Big Four. I hope that my doing so will allow for us to see a more-complete picture of how each Spur impacts the game on that end. I am also incorporating a second set of stats for each of the Heat’s Big Three covering where they attacked from for each possession they ended. If that sounds confusing, it will hopefully make more sense after we get to the first example.
Total Defensive Stats:
Game 1 Poss. Makes Misses Fouls TOs Points PPP Duncan 13 6 5 2 1 17 1.307692 Leonard 14 6 4 2 3 15 1.071429 Splitter 12 3 7 1 2 7 0.583333 Parker 8 4 3 1 1 9 1.125 Green 17 3 8 2 4 11 0.647059 Diaw 12 5 4 1 2 14 1.166667 Mills 1 1 0 0 0 3 3 Ginobili 16 5 8 2 3 10 0.625 Belinelli 6 4 2 0 0 9 1.5 Total 99 37 41 11 16 95 0.959596
I’ll talk about my general thoughts later in the post. But damn, Green and Manu did work defensively. Splitter was pretty amazing, too, despite lapsing a few times on Bosh.
Numbers Against Key Heat Players:
James Poss. Makes Misses Fouls TOs Points PPP Leonard 9 4 2 2 2 10 1.111111 Splitter 3 0 2 0 1 0 0 Green 3 0 1 1 1 2 0.666667 Diaw 7 4 2 1 0 11 1.571429 Belinelli 2 1 1 0 0 2 1 Total 24 9 8 4 4 25 1.041667 Defender Spot Result Points Continued from previous column... Leonard Break M 2 Diaw Break M 2 Leonard Block M 2 Ginobili Wing F N/A Leonard Block TO 0 Leonard Corner F N/A Leonard Wing M 2 Green S. Corner TO 0 Leonard Wing F 1 Belinelli Block M 2 Green Elbow X 0 Diaw Corner T 3 Diaw Wing X 0 Leonard Break X 0 Splitter Rim X 0 Belinelli Wing X 0 Diaw Wing X 0 Green Break F 2 Leonard Wing TO 0 Leonard Wing T 3 Diaw Wing M 2 Leonard Corner X 0 Diaw Wing F 2 Diaw Corner X 0 Continued in the next column... Diaw Wing M 2
Diaw struggled to defend James mainly because Lebron started attacking Diaw from outside the three-point line on each possession they were matched up. That meant that the help had to come sooner and that the helper had to move farther out. That was fine when Splitter was the center, as he was very much able to stay with James and waste two of his shots at the rim. But if Duncan is the last line of defense, James will be able to score on Diaw any time he wants to.
In general, James liked to attack from the wing/elbow area, so him starting away from the basket wasn’t exclusive to Diaw’s possessions at all. But he seemed more inclined to try to overpower Leonard and Green than he was Diaw. This didn’t work all that well for him, because, as I said, it’s much easier for the Spurs’ defense to collapse on James if his man can stay with him into the paint.
I’d suggest Pop only play Diaw on James if Splitter is in for Duncan. The relative lack of mobility of a Diaw/Duncan small-ball front court is a pretty big weakness.
Wade Poss. Makes Misses Fouls TOs Points PPP Duncan 2 1 1 0 0 2 1 Leonard 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 Splitter 2 0 2 1 0 0 0 Parker 2 1 1 0 0 2 1 Green 4 1 1 1 1 4 1 Diaw 2 0 1 0 1 0 0 Ginobili 6 3 3 0 0 6 1 Belinelli 2 2 0 0 0 5 2.5 Total 21 8 10 2 2 19 0.904762 Defender Spot Result Points Green Break TO 0 Green Top X 0 Green Block X 0 Green Rim M 2 Splitter Elbow X 0 Belinelli Wing T 3 Ginobili Corner M 2 Parket FT Line X 0 Ginobili Elbow X 0 Diaw S. Corner TO 0 Ginobili Block M 2 Ginobili Wing X 0 Parker Corner M 2 Diaw S. Corner X 0 Green Corner F 2 Ginobili FT Line M 2 Green Block TO 0 Ginobili Key X 0 Belinelli Elbow M 2 Ginobili FT Line X 0 Ginobili Elbow M 2 Leonard Corner X 0
Obviously, it’s too early to tell which wing defender will be the best Wade stopper. Wade saw a variety of defenders and had mixed results against all but Beli. I like the way that he and Manu compete against each other, so I’m fine with Ginobili getting the nod when he’s out there. Green got off to a better start against Wade than he did in Game One last year. We’ll see if that continues. Also, Wade better be able to roast Diaw in subsequent games, or else the Heat have no chance to overcoming the Spurs.
Bosh Poss. Makes Misses Fouls TOs Points PPP Defender Spot Result Points Duncan 4 2 1 1 1 6 1.5 Splitter Wing M 2 Leonard 1 1 0 0 0 3 3 Leonard Corner T 3 Splitter 4 3 0 0 1 7 1.75 Splitter Corner T 3 Parker 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 Ginobili FT Line X 0 Green 1 1 0 0 0 2 2 Duncan Wing X 0 Diaw 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 Duncan Wing M 2 Ginobili 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 Diaw Elbow X 0 Splitter Corner TO 0 Total 13 7 4 2 2 18 1.384615 Splitter FT Line M 2 Ginobili Elbow F N/A Duncan Corner TO 0 Green Block M 2 Duncan Wing T 4 Parker S. Corner X 0
The Spurs need to go ahead and close hard on Bosh pretty much every time. Chris’ three makes came off soft-closes by Leonard, Splitter and Duncan, including a four-point play on Tim’s close. His only miss from three came on Tim’s hard-close. I don’t know why the Spurs took the ElNono approach in Game One, but let’s hope they don’t do it again.
Allen Poss. Makes Misses Fouls TOs Points PPP Duncan 2 0 1 1 0 1 0.5 Leonard 1 1 0 0 0 2 2 Parker 1 1 0 0 0 3 3 Green 2 1 1 0 0 3 1.5 Mills 1 1 0 0 0 3 3 Ginobili 4 1 3 0 0 2 0.5 Belinelli 2 1 1 0 0 2 1 Total 13 6 6 1 0 16 1.230769
The fact that the Spurs gave up 16 points to Allen isn’t as concerning as the fact that they gave him 13 possessions. Ginobili in particular benefitted from being the “defender” during three no-close misses. Belinelli got the benefit of a miss as well. Green himself didn’t really get lucky with Allen. Ray only took two shots in the second half when Danny was on him. The first was a drive where Ray beat him to the middle but missed after Tim pressured the shot. The second miss was the result of Green closing hard on Allen, forcing him to reset. Ray then tried to shoot the three again, but Danny had recovered from his fly-by and pestered Allen into the miss at preserved the Spurs’ 99-95 lead.
How the Spurs guard Allen going forward is a topic for discussion. The most important thing a defender needs to do in order to check Allen is stay with him and not allow clean shots. Ideally, this would be a match-up that’d work for Mills, but he got wasted on a screen the only time he got the assignment. I’d like a bigger sample size before judging that strategy. The Spurs had a level of success switching screens, but with Ray being much improved inside the arc, he can make a defender pay for closing out of control, which happened a couple of times.
Lewis Poss. Makes Misses Fouls TOs Points PPP Duncan 2 1 1 0 0 3 1.5 Splitter 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 Parker 1 1 0 0 0 2 2 Green 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 Diaw 1 1 0 0 0 3 3 Ginobili 2 1 1 0 0 2 1 Total 10 4 6 0 0 10 1
I probably won’t cover Lewis every game, but I thought he did enough to talk about in this breakdown. Splitter did fine on him, but everyone else has to make sure to get their closes right.
General Takeaways:
-Danny Green’s rotations were exceptional in Game One. He sank into the lane to force five misses (two on Chalmers, two on Lewis and his block on Andersen). He collected two steals by jumping passes in the paint, in addition to forcing an additional turnover after sinking to the baseline to help out Leonard on James. Lebron couldn’t complete the Hammer play because Danny took away the passing angle. From a team-defensive perspective, this was the best game I’d seen Green play.
-Manu was a pest on defense. He forced three turnovers by collecting drawing two offensive fouls and collecting a steal. (The box score credits him with two steals, but I gave his first one to Leonard since Kawhi blocked James’ view.) As I said above, his numbers are helped by Allen going cold for a stretch. But in a way that’s better, since I think Manu can repeat this level of defensive performance.
-Duncan may well struggle defensively in this series. He definitely didn’t start off on the right foot in Game One, if his PPP allowed is any indication. The reasons behind this are well established. Tim is elite when he can stay in the pain and protect the rim. He’s poor when he has to leave the paint to hedge on PnRs or close out on shooters. This wasn’t like some the previous games in the post-season where Duncan was consistently inadequate. The Heat allowed Tim to stay in his comfort zone quite a bit, and he rarely failed when he was there. But I think it’s just going to get tougher for him as the series goes on.
-Parker, Diaw and Leonard each put up an above-average PPP allowed (which is a negative thing). For the latter two, the reason for that is the best player who’s ever lived. They can get a break for that . In Parker’s case, it really wasn’t anything he did. He got scored on once each by four different players. I’d caution against assuming Tony got beaten or anything like that.
-It’s kind of worrisome that the Spurs actually had a pretty strong defensive performance against the Heat and still struggled to put the game away. I know about the Spurs’ turnovers, and I do think it could all end up being a wash. But the Heat missed shots they should have made, and they probably will make tomorrow or when the series shifts to Miami. There are a couple of tweaks Pop can make to improve the numbers, but they wouldn’t move the needle that much. This is going to be a high-scoring series.
All right. I know this was a REALLY long post. I hope some of you managed to stick with me for this long. Feedback is appreciated. If you have any questions/challenges, let me know.
Last edited by Chinook; 06-07-2014 at 05:05 AM.
That backup backcourt is just as terrible as I said it was a long time ago defensively, they get consistently schooled, if they resign Mills it'll be a big blunder...
Big surprise is Splitter doing worse than Tim on Bosh, that's pretty damn bad... Bosh looked quick and didn't try to post thus Tiago had no answer...
Boris suffered from the new defensive strategy on Lebron, if he has to play him closer than he's making him a driver... Not sure what the logic Pop is using there... Sure he doesn't want a game 7 repeat but the 15 min Boris is on Lebron he should simply be asked to sit back and prevent him from driving...
I wouldn't mind more Boris on Wade with Green on Lebron instead tbh, especially if Pop doesn't want to leave Lebron much room to shoot...
Thanks for this.
Regarding Parker defence - could it be because of bad ankle?
I think Parker was fine. He didn't really play badly. He just sort of got unlucky to be on players who happened to score. His numbers look bad, but really he only got scored on four times.
Beli is probably hopeless at this point unless he's on Chalmers or Cole. He's obviously to checking Lebron or Wade, and he isn't really attentive enough to be trusted on Allen. I guess Lewis could be a match-up he could do. Surprisingly enough, Mills didn't really get tested. That probably speaks well to his defense, as the Heat are pretty good at finding open men.
Nice spin on Splitter/Bosh thing. You're right that he struggled closing out, especially early in the game. But all of the bigs did. I liked that Tim actually sold out on one close-out. That's a better plan for him to do than hoping he can both close and contain penetration.
I agree to an extent. I will also say Miami actually game-planned for the previous strategy, which is why James kept getting the ball on the wings or deep elbow. They wanted Lebron to have room to drive past his man even with the cushion. Diaw's a fine post defender, but even last year, James ate him alive facing up. As I said before, Splitter was awesome in his help on James drives. Boris will be all right so long as Tiago is behind him.
It's an idea. Obviously, James would try to take Green into the block in that case. That would almost certainly force a double, though.
sorry Chinook, but *I* don't have an approach on closing on shooters. Like I said back when we discussed this, our discussion was never about soft-close vs hard-close. It was jumping or not on an actual hard-close.
FWIW, it's clear that on top of that, we also have differing opinions on what cons utes a hard-close, seeing that, IMO, Bosh's 4 point play was actually a hard-close by Tim, but you feel it was not.
Now, I haven't read the whole thing yet. I'm gonna get me a cup of coffee and do that. Appreciate you taking the time to put this together.
Open 3s missed.... not contested. It seemed like last game we had them miss 6 wide open 3s.
Thanks for the writeup. I personally had the gut feeling that our defense wasn't that good after the game was over. There was plenty of miscommunication on a few of the rotations that left Allen open for 3 (and he missed them), and also some amateur-ish stuff like Danny's turnover coupled with him not thinking fast enough to go close out on Ray. I did think we were able to make key stops at certain moments, and we were able to punish them. I also thought Miami (especially Wade) ran out of gas a bit towards the end.
Another thing that jumps at me looking at the 1st table is how much Manu and Green were actually attacked by Miami. I don't think that's sheer luck, I think Miami does want to make a concerted effort for those guys to work hard on the defensive end to try to tire them out. Be it by chasing Ray around screens, or trying to keep up with Wade. I thought the Spurs tried to switch some of that coverage, especially on Allen, and that's when some of the defensive breakdowns occurred.
Wade himself talked yesterday how Manu picked them apart, and as far as Danny, they already know he can be a killer shooter, but tired legs are always a factor when trying to make long distance shots. They do a terrific job at jumping passing lanes, especially Wade, so the Spurs are going to have to mix it up on offense a bit, but that's a different discussion possibly for a different thread.
FWIW, it's clear that on top of that, we also have differing opinions on what cons utes a hard-close, seeing that, IMO, Bosh's 4 point play was actually a hard-close by Tim, but you feel it was not.
Now, I haven't read the whole thing yet. I'm gonna get me a cup of coffee and do that. Appreciate you taking the time to put this together.
I think Green sank to protect the basket on that play, which you're supposed to do when there's a fast break. However, Splitter also sank behind him, so Green was free to close out. Danny didn't realize this, which highlights your point about communication. I do think the Spurs could be smarter defensively. My comments were more than their adjustments would probably not have a big statistical impact, as Game One falsely propped up their stats due to Heat players missing wide-open shots.
I wouldn't draw that conclusion from Green's numbers. Remember, I give help-defenders the possessions if their rotations force the misses. Eight of Green's 17 possessions were him sinking down to help on drives. This is something Wade does a lot with Miami. Since Wade was in the paint on most plays and Miami's bigs were on the three-point line, Green was essentially the weak-side forward on a lot of plays. Even some of the remaining nine possessions were things like Danny defending the break or his man getting the put-back.Another thing that jumps at me looking at the 1st table is how much Manu and Green were actually attacked by Miami. I don't think that's sheer luck, I think Miami does want to make a concerted effort for those guys to work hard on the defensive end to try to tire them out. Be it by chasing Ray around screens, or trying to keep up with Wade. I thought the Spurs tried to switch some of that coverage, especially on Allen, and that's when some of the defensive breakdowns occurred.
Wade himself talked yesterday how Manu picked them apart, and as far as Danny, they already know he can be a killer shooter, but tired legs are always a factor when trying to make long distance shots. They do a terrific job at jumping passing lanes, especially Wade, so the Spurs are going to have to mix it up on offense a bit, but that's a different discussion possibly for a different thread.
As far as Manu goes. He played more minutes than Green or Leonard did. Kawhi was attacked pretty frequently when he was defending James. I will also say that a few of Manu's possessions came in short spurt where the Heat were trying to ride Allen and Ray was bricking shots. I think Allen took three shots in one minute or something like that. Then, Pop closed the game with Manu on Wade for long stretches before Kawhi came in at the end. Dwyane attacked Ginobili pretty relentlessly, but he didn't have a ton of success.
Good stuff. I'm discounting Lebron on the attack, because that will likely be the bread and butter for Miami when you have Lebron out there. But yes, I see a lot of running through screens for Ray when Manu is guarding him. I remember vividly one play in the 1st half where Manu asked a teammate (I think it was Patty?) to switch and close Allen on the corner, and it didn't happen. Luckily Ray missed the open 3. I think it will be in the Spurs' best interest to do some switching because you don't want Gino or Tony running through multiple screens then going on the other end and running the offense. It was just poorly done this game, and something I'm sure they'll pick up on the tape and fix.
One other factor that's missing here is Chalmers. As Spo said, he's important for Miami and his foul trouble limited him a lot in this game. I think we'll see more of him stepping up, possibly even more in Miami, and putting some extra pressure on our defense. He loves the corner 3s, and that's an area I didn't think we did a good job in Game 1.
Big surprise is Splitter doing worse than Tim on Bosh, that's pretty damn bad... Bosh looked quick and didn't try to post thus Tiago had no answer...
The only reason it is a "surprise" is because 99% of Spurs fans fell for the "he's an elite defender" bull . Tiago is slow as , and anti-athletic. His rebounding is Roy-Hibbert-esque as well. The thing he does GREAT, better than any C in the game, is flop, take charges, and stand straight up in the block. He is getting smarter, and better every year, i think, but he still has a long way to go to be worth half the money paid for him.
I cant believe the Spurs pay their strength coach anything really. Bush league
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