The Ultimate Crapshoot: Bill Simmons funny take on the NBA draft vs. history

[wildbill2u]

The Ultimate Crapshoot «
http://grantland.com/features/nba-dr...t-repick-1995/

Simmons always entertains, but this particular long piece has some very interesting statistics as he reviews 19 years of past drafts and matches the players' achievement vs. his draft spot.

Of particular interest to Spurs fans is his take on Kwahi:

" Be honest — if you’re trying to win les for the next 12 years and your life depended on it, you’d really roll the dice with Kyrie over Kawhi? If that’s true, YOU ARE LYING TO YOURSELF. Let’s see Kyrie win 35 games in a season before we take him over the 2014 Finals MVP. Cool? Cool. ...
• I spent far more time deliberating over Klay vs. Kawhi than I expected. Then I remembered that Kawhi stared down LeBron for three straight Finals games. The Kingslayer!"

[Aztecfan03]

But here’s where the best, second-best and third-best players were drafted over the past 19 years.

Best picks: nos. 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 4, 4, 5, 9, 9, 9, 10, 11, 13, 15, 28
Second-best picks: nos. 1, 1, 1, 1, 3, 3, 4, 5, 5, 6, 7, 9, 9, 9, 11, 15, 21, 43, 57
Third-best picks: nos. 1, 1, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 5, 5, 8, 10, 14, 15, 17, 30, 34, 47, 48

So the ninth pick is the second best pick in the draft

That’s 57 picks in all. Twelve of 57 were drafted first overall; 18 of 57 were drafted 2-through-5; 16 of 57 were drafted 6-through-14; and 10 of 57 were drafted 15th or later. Even if you don’t land a top-five pick, there remains a 40 percent chance of drafting a top-three player. If you don’t get a top-three pick, you maintain about a SIXTY percent chance of landing one of the best three players. But hey, keep tanking your buns off, everybody.

I expect better from Simmons. 60% of the three best players may be outside of the top three picks, but you have no where near a sixty percent chance to get one of those unless you have all 27 picks to end the first round.


btw, i knew i saw a thread like this yesterday but i never looked at it. http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=236523&p=7459052#post7459052

[Cowboys_Wear_Spurs]

"But here’s where the best, second-best and third-best players were drafted over the past 19 years.

Best picks: nos. 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 4, 4, 5, 9, 9, 9, 10, 11, 13, 15, 28
Second-best picks: nos. 1, 1, 1, 1, 3, 3, 4, 5, 5, 6, 7, 9, 9, 9, 11, 15, 21, 43, 57
Third-best picks: nos. 1, 1, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 5, 5, 8, 10, 14, 15, 17, 30, 34, 47, 48"


So the ninth pick is the second best pick in the draft

That 57 2nd best pick is Manu, 15th 1st thru 3rd best pick is kawhi, That 28th best pick is Parker, and of course Duncan is one of those 1st best overall picks.

So Bill is saying the Spurs got a top 3 player 4 times via the draft and only once had a lottery pick.

[baseline bum]

Simmons is letting his Suns homerism and Laker hate cloud his judgement by taking Marion over Ginobili and Parker over Gasol.

[Mr. Body]

He's not a Suns homer.

[baseline bum]

He's not a Suns homer.

Simmons was a ridiculous homer for the Seven Seconds or Less Suns, way more than he has been for the Celtics.

[Jenks]

Simmons is letting his Suns homerism and Laker hate cloud his judgement by taking Marion over Ginobili and Parker over Gasol.

Things get more interesting when you look at the * ratings.
Apparently Ginobili is in a class below Harden, Pierce, Allen, and Kevin Love. Yeah Bill Simmons is brilliant.

[fleggy2k2]

So the ninth pick is the second best pick in the draft

FWIW there's a math problem called the Secretary Problem with a similar concept, and it suggests that an optimal stopping point to make a pick exists after the first 37% of a random set (like the draft) is chosen. If we follow the 37% rule, then that means the 11th pick would be best, aside from the first pick. It's cool that Simmons' seemingly arbitrary rankings and small sample size yielded a close result to the math problem.

Here's the wiki on that math problem, for those interested:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secretary_problem

[FlAVaK]

then that means the 11th pick would be best

that is not what the secretary problem says! it says take the first who is better than the first eleven (if you chose out of thirty; 30/e=11)...

[fleggy2k2]

ah you're right. so 12th pick, i guess? I was rounding down from 11.03 lol. Either way, Simmons result is kinda consistent with this, which is pretty cool

[lefty]

I loved it when he said that TP+TD+Manu combined were making less $$$ than Kobe during the draft last night

[FlAVaK]

ah you're right. so 12th pick, i guess? I was rounding down from 11.03 lol. Either way, Simmons result is kinda consistent with this, which is pretty cool

No, not the first after 11, but the first who is better than the best out of the first eleven! Could be any candidate out of 12-30. And the secretary thing in general is not similar to the simple statistic method Simmons (it`s not even a "method", he just counts...) uses on the draft! It would be similar, if only one team would draft out of a 30 player pool, first would look at 11 guys and than take the next one, which is better than all of these 11. But the best could be another one! That´s the secretary problem...

In reality, every team takes look at every player and evalutes him befoe making their decision. So not similar to the method described above!

[FlAVaK]

I loved it when he said that TP+TD+Manu combined were making less $$$ than Kobe during the draft last night

+1

[TampaDude]

I loved it when he said that TP+TD+Manu combined were making less $$$ than Kobe during the draft last night