In what ing year? 2009?
This theoretical team would have to be considered among the worst defensive teams in the league today. And I shudder to imagine the -tier bench that would result from three/four massive contracts.
I don't think you've thought this one through.
I still maintain my Spurs will win their first back to back championship regardless of the compe ion of who the favorites are.
How have I not thought that through? Because I am biased toward the Spurs?
Or because undoubtedly the media and probably Vegas will say the Heat are?
Vegas already has the Heat as the favorites.
You haven't explained why a team hamstrung by contracts with four big-name players (only 1 of whom can play defense) would be considered a "favorite" in the league today.
http://www.sbnation.com/odds/2014/6/...pending-lebron
Not even an ugly loss in this spring's NBA Finals could keep the Miami Heat off the top of the early odds to win the 2015 NBA championship at the sportsbooks.
The Heat lasted just five games against Tim Duncan and the San Antonio Spurs in this month's NBA Finals, but they're the 7/2 favorites on the early odds to win the 2015 NBA championship.
That line, of course, assumes that the Heat will return in their current form next season - or at the very least still have LeBron James in their uniform. Should the Heat conduct an unlikely roster shakeup in the months ahead, as this article at Gamblingsites.net suggests, or if James decides to leave, those odds would drop.
The Spurs opened in a tie with the Oklahoma City Thunder for second place on the 2015 NBA championship odds at 6/1 after wrapping up their le, but a week later they're at 5/1 on those NBA futures while the Thunder are now a step behind them at 13/2.
Dude...the only reason the Heat have such low odds is because they are in the weak East, whereas the Spurs and Thunder are in the much stronger West.
Make no mistake, though...if the Spurs reach the Finals in 2015, they will be the favorites to win it all again.
That is fine with me, the Spurs are my team.
I'm just "quoting" who the favorites are by the odds makers and the sportscasters.
They could easily co-exist.
If Bosh goes to Houston for the max the guy who is screwed is Wade. He had roughly 20 mill a year coming to him for two more years and agrees with LBJ and Bosh to take one for the team and then Bosh leaves? If you are Riles and Lebron does go to Cleveland (I don't think he will), I bet he doesn't even re-sign Wade. Of course he would immediately be in the Melo and Gasol sweepstakes.
Riley runs a mafia and generally takes care of his players. I see a Kobe-ish contract for Wade regardless of the outcome, and part of the story they sell to future free agents. Players are generally worn out a lot quicker under the Riley inspired training programs but also reach new heights quickly.
Miami comes back strong which forces Larry Bird to ship Hilbert, and subsequently release Luis Scola (http://www.indycornrows.com/2014/7/6...indiana-pacers), and of course he signs with us. Replacing Bonner with Scola is all we need really. It makes us that much deeper without forcing Pop to change our rotation. Definitely an upgrade!
Bosh, Wade and LeBron are all likely to stay with Miami. They already opted out of lucrative deals, I doubt they'll change course now.
Rockets aren't going to get Bosh because nobody is going to absorb Lin's ridiculous contract.
The only real obstacle for the Spurs are the Thunder whether on not Gasol signs with them.
It's looking more and more like the Spurs are going to repeat (or is it 2-peat)?
Not with the three other players they would field.
Yes they could. McBob, Napier and Wade. They have similar player in Granger, so basicly their tactic will be both SF/PF on the field
Yeah I know that's why I said it was a pipe dream, there's no scenario where bosh stays in Miami for just dwade, but it'd be cool cuz the heat would still be a good team assuming riles surrounds them correctly, Cleveland would be great, and New York would still be relevant. Anything to make the east more interesting
qI am putting this scenario out there for discussion and debate to ponder over.
What I am reading of what many sports prognosticators are speculating is that the real reason that neither James nor Melo nor Gasol have made their decisions yet is because they are waiting on Bosh' decision.
It is known that Miami/Riley is low balling Bosh. This would appear under the surface to help influence Bosh to decide to take his talents elsewhere, such as Houston. Bosh even talked to James about the Houston offer and James was noncommittal.
Also it has been reported that Melo talked with Gasol to try to convince him to come to New York with him, but what if it were to go to Miami to play with him and James?
James and Riley may, or may not, have conceived this scenario together, or may, or may not, have included Melo in this plan, because the master plan would be to replace Bosh with Melo, and then lure Gasol to take much less to also play there and win championships.
So in a sense, Bosh is holding James' and/or Riley' plan hostage.
At this point, it is all conjecture, pure speculation, but I have to admit, it seems plausible.
A team of James, Melo, Wade (at half speed), and Gasol at age 34, along with the remaining new and old parts, would have to be considered the favorites, even over the Spurs.
Even if all this were to somehow come about as some sports people are saying, I still like my Spurs to repeat.
I pretty much agree with your whole scenario. Except, I think James concocted this Machiavellian black ops plan from the beginning to get Bosh off the team without James looking like the heavy. That is the only way to free up some salary. So, James meets at the start of free agency with Bosh and Wade and they agree to opt out and redo their contracts. Then things stall with Riley and the Heat, and James floats the rumors he is going back to Cleveland, LA etc hoping to spook Bosh and get Bosh to make the first move by signing with Houston. I think Bosh figured this out and that he was getting played and used, and now has decided to delay his signing with Houston, hoping Melo signs with NY so he Melo can't play with Lebron in Miami. Bosh will be the first domino to fall and he knows he has all the power to make the other players sweat.
I've already ran through this. The Heat core 4 would be Melo, Bron, Wade, McBob. They either play small with Coles/Napier at PG or big with Birdman at center. So problems I see there:
No bench:
Washed up Granger and Rashard Lewis are also SFs who play the same position as Melo and Bron.
Rest of bench is maybe Ray Allen + veteran's minimum players.
Bigs:
Birdman only viable center who is now officially old, lost his athleticism, and probably not good for much more than 20 minutes a game.
McRoberts at PF/C averages only 4 rebounds per game.
Oden appears to be someone that can be safely ignored as a non factor.
So two ballhogging SFs (ok Bron does pass a little), extremely pathetic group of bigs from every aspect, and highly questionable guard play from Coles, a rookie, and two washed up SGs (Wade and Allen). I just don't see much synergy there.
Again this was on the off chance Melo went to Heat and Bosh left. I maintain that Gasol replacing Bosh would be a better salary move, though I was kind of assuming Miami also lands another significant free agent piece with the salary difference of $10 million or so. A closer look at the numbers could reveal they gain little because they end up using cap room rather than exceptions to add Granger and McRoberts.
I do think Gasol is better in the short term at least (due to his advancing age) straight up over Bosh for the Heat. Even if they only had $3 million or so left to spend that might get them a decent player that bolstered their anemic roster.
I also reiterate Bosh had his lowest scoring year since he was a rookie and career low rebounding. I think his best days are behind him. While he has a bit of game left regardless, no way in hades I'd be lining up to offer the guy a 4-5 year deal at 20 million per.
Seems to be like:
-Melo is waiting for Bosh to decide
-Bosh is waiting for Lebron to decide
-Lebron is waiting for Riley to make moves
-Riley can't until he knows how much money he has available to him
Do you guys think Melo joins the Heat if Bosh leaves?
Melo will want $20 million per so him, Bron, Wade and Gasol numbers don't work. Even if Wade, Melo, Bron all signed for $50 million total, Napier/Coles take $3 million (which I think is too low actually), and then you add in what $7-$8 million for McRoberts/Granger your at a bare minimum of $60 million salary with only $3 million left for Gasol. Also I think my numbers are too low and there is not even that much left.
Point was not only is Melo + Gasol not being talked about to Miami, but I don't think it's even plausible when you look at the dollars.
Yes. It almost seems like the Heat want Bosh to leave so they can sign Melo.
I've not heard Melo to Heat and think it's a bad fit as I've pontificated on. The smart move would have been for Heat dump Bosh right away and then make a hard push to add Melo and Gasol to Bron and Wade. It would be an extremely tight fit salary-cap wise, but it definitely makes them better. While I don't like the Melo fit with Bron, adding Melo + Gasol makes them much better than keeping Bosh and adding McRoberts and Granger.
This still seems to be shaping up as early Christmas though, as LeBron does something crazy like go back to Cleveland or comes back to a Miami team that doesn't appear to be getting any better to me.
Good analysis. I do get the feeling Melo is waiting to see what happens with Bosh.
Something is up though. Melo should have made up his mind by now between Chicago, N.Y., or L.A. if he were going to one of those three.
I think the longer this takes, the more it looks like they are trying to wait out Bosh so they can get together in Miami IMHO.
The bee in the bonnet may be Bosh figured this all out and is waiting for either James or Melo to make a decision before he does.
I could see this happening in regards to Melo and Lebron, but don't see Gasol taking the bait or them pulling the McRoberts deal. Pau can see the future well enough to know that Miami would definitely not be a long term plan and at the same time not earning anywhere close to his full earning potential. He could go to the Spurs or OKC for continued long term (i.e. Gasol could slide into Duncan's spot - Spurs retool a little, and he would start long term for OKC until he retires) winning and success and still get paid more money then what Miami could offer. Chicago and LA are the X factors in it all. They can both pay more than OKC or Spurs but can't guarantee that they will win or at least match the same success that the Spurs and Thunder have had and should continue to have. However, if Melo goes to LA, no question Gasol follows.I am putting this scenario out there for discussion and debate to ponder over.
What I am reading of what many sports prognosticators are speculating is that the real reason that neither James nor Melo nor Gasol have made their decisions yet is because they are waiting on Bosh' decision.
It is known that Miami/Riley is low balling Bosh. This would appear under the surface to help influence Bosh to decide to take his talents elsewhere, such as Houston. Bosh even talked to James about the Houston offer and James was noncommittal.
Also it has been reported that Melo talked with Gasol to try to convince him to come to New York with him, but what if it were to go to Miami to play with him and James?
James and Riley may, or may not, have conceived this scenario together, or may, or may not, have included Melo in this plan, because the master plan would be to replace Bosh with Melo, and then lure Gasol to take much less to also play there and win championships.
So in a sense, Bosh is holding James' and/or Riley' plan hostage.
At this point, it is all conjecture, pure speculation, but I have to admit, it seems plausible.
A team of James, Melo, Wade (at half speed), and Gasol at age 34, along with the remaining new and old parts, would have to be considered the favorites, even over the Spurs.
Even if all this were to somehow come about as some sports people are saying, I still like my Spurs to repeat.
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