Week 1 Latest Lines

[DD]

The Panthers only being 1.5 favs says a lot about what Vegas thinks of them. Pretty embarrassing, considering both teams' records last year

[Darth_Pelican]

The Panthers only being 1.5 favs says a lot about what Vegas thinks of them. Pretty embarrassing, considering both teams' records last year

Yeah I was shocked at that line. It almost seemed too good to be true.

[N0 LyF3 ScRuB]

NFL Lines For Week 1

Date & Time	Favorite	Line	Underdog	Total
9/4 8:35 ET	At Seattle	-5.5	Green Bay	45
9/7 1:00 ET	At Atlanta	-1.5	New Orleans	52
9/7 1:00 ET	At St. Louis	-6	Minnesota	45.5
9/7 1:00 ET	At Pittsburgh	-5.5	Cleveland	40.5
9/7 1:00 ET	At Philadelphia	-11	Jacksonville	51.5
9/7 1:00 ET	At NY Jets	-4.5	Oakland	39.5
9/7 1:00 ET	At Baltimore	-2.5	Cincinnati	43
9/7 1:00 ET	At Chicago	-6.5	Buffalo	48.5
9/7 1:00 ET	At Houston	-2.5	Washington	45.5
9/7 1:00 ET	At Kansas City	-6	Tennessee	43.5
9/7 1:00 ET	New England	-3.5	At Miami	47
9/7 4:25 ET	Carolina	-1.5	At Tampa Bay	39.5
9/7 4:25 ET	San Francisco	-4.5	At Dallas	48.5
9/7 8:30 ET	At Denver	-7	Indianapolis	55.5

Monday Night Football Line

9/8 7:10 ET	At Detroit	-4	NY Giants	45.5
9/8 10:25 ET	At Arizona	-3.5	San Diego	44.5

http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_lines.shtml


It's way too early to make official picks, and these lines will likely change a bit, but here are a few games that currently stand out to me.

The Saints, getting 1.5 points against Atlanta. I don't think Atlanta made enough significant improvement in the offseason to be favored here. The Saints swept the Falcons last year.

The Panthers -1.5 at Tampa. The Panthers beat the Bucs 31-13 and 27-6 last year. I watched the 27-6 game and it was a total mismatch. I'm surprised the Panthers aren't favored by between 4 and 6 points.

Ravens -2.5 at home vs. Cincy. The Bengals were 3-5 on the road last year, and the Ravens want to start off the season right after a disappointing 8-8 year. These teams split last year, with each team winning at home.

Tampa has gotten way better. Great coaches, and draft. The media is hyping the Panthers to val hard this year... I just don't see it.

As for ATL, they are healthy now.

[spurraider21]

Tampa has gotten way better. Great coaches, and draft. The media is hyping the Panthers to val hard this year... I just don't see it.

As for ATL, they are healthy now.

unless Benjamin (who is considered to be very raw) emerges as a #1, their receiving core downgraded, as well as their offensive line (losing Gross). Mike Mitc was actually quite a good player last year ( raiders gave up on their pick too early) and now he's gone. He was replaced with Decoud who isn't really all that good. they were also only able to sign Hardy to a 1-year tender and their cap figure next year is already at 133 mil, meaning they're gna make a good number of cuts, or let Hardy walk, in all likelihood.

I don't see how Carolina got better, while the rest of that division did

[DD]

That line has nothing to do with Tampa supposedly getting better, or else the O/U would've been higher to reflect their improvements on offense. This game has 13-10 written all over it. It'll likely be unwatchable, and rank slightly above Jets-Raiders in the entertainment department for Week 1 games.

[N0 LyF3 ScRuB]

That line has nothing to do with Tampa supposedly getting better

ok

[N0 LyF3 ScRuB]

unless Benjamin (who is considered to be very raw) emerges as a #1, their receiving core downgraded, as well as their offensive line (losing Gross). Mike Mitc was actually quite a good player last year ( raiders gave up on their pick too early) and now he's gone. He was replaced with Decoud who isn't really all that good. they were also only able to sign Hardy to a 1-year tender and their cap figure next year is already at 133 mil, meaning they're gna make a good number of cuts, or let Hardy walk, in all likelihood.

I don't see how Carolina got better, while the rest of that division did

They don't need to get better because they are the division champs. They were ranked last in receiving last year, and they got a top WR prospect who is huge and has impressed. Plus Olsen is still here, and our front seven. Our DB's were horrible last year for the most part so we can't get much worse. The only big loss is Gross, which is big.

[spurraider21]

They don't need to get better because they are the division champs.

thats fine and dandy, but you're in a really strong division and everybody got better except you

They were ranked last in receiving last year, and they got a top WR prospect who is huge and has impressed.

i mentioned him, but he's a project tbh. a lot of players impress without pads. also you lost LaFell and Gin

Plus Olsen is still here,

that changes nothing... they were last with him last year too

and our front seven.

i didnt say the panthers are bad, i just said they've gotten no better. telling me about strong position groups that held par isn't really challenging my argument

Our DB's were horrible last year for the most part so we can't get much worse. The only big loss is Gross, which is big.

losing Munnerlyn and Mitc will hurt too

[DD]

I only watch NFL Redzone now, so fortunately I don't have to sit through any Carolina-TB highlights till NFL Primetime that night

[N0 LyF3 ScRuB]

thats fine and dandy, but you're in a really strong division and everybody got better except you

You are right.

i mentioned him, but he's a project tbh. a lot of players impress without pads. also you lost LaFell and Gin

I think he can make an immediate impact and that's not really out of the realm of possibility. Lafell had a tendency to drop the ball. We picked up two big receivers that specialize in catching the ball [in terms of strengths]. I think that Cotchrey/Avant is a upgrade over Lafell/Ginn but I am biased. Ginn is a loss because of the deep threat.

that changes nothing... they were last with him last year too

The point is he was our top receiving threat last year. Cam loves throwing to big receivers, hence why he got a lot of passing yards his first two years with the Olsen/Shockey combo.

i didnt say the panthers are bad, i just said they've gotten no better. telling me about strong position groups that held par isn't really challenging my argument

Actually it is.

Our team is relatively young too. They got their much needed experience in the playoffs this past year. I really think we can take the next step.

losing Munnerlyn and Mitc will hurt too

Yes, but I think it is noteworthy that Captain and Mitc were not highly touted free agent signings, and were mediocre players before this past year. I am very pissed they decided to leave, but it is what it is. Hopefully Decoud, Roman Harper, and the return of Charles Godfrey will help.

[DD]

They got their much-needed playoff experience in one game where they got slapped around in front of their fans?

[spurraider21]

Actually it is.

when my position is that "your team hasn't gotten better" and you tell me about position groups that are unchanged, that's not really making a new point. they've basically held par or downgraded at nearly every position. if benjamin shocks the world you can argue their receivers have gotten better, but i'm not sure he's going to make a big impact year 1. but cotchery/avant are not an upgrade to anything. pretty much every receiving core in the NFL outside of cleveland is better than that

[Darth_Pelican]

I only watch NFL Redzone now, so fortunately I don't have to sit through any Carolina-TB highlights till NFL Primetime that night

Yeah but if you look at the week 1 schedule more closely, there are only 2 games in the late afternoon slot, and one of them is the Carolina-TB game. It's pretty ty to only have 2 games in the late afternoon.

[spurraider21]

That line has nothing to do with Tampa supposedly getting better, or else the O/U would've been higher to reflect their improvements on offense. This game has 13-10 written all over it. It'll likely be unwatchable, and rank slightly above Jets-Raiders in the entertainment department for Week 1 games.

you don't think the potential Geno Smith-Matt Schaub greasefire has entertainment value?

[N0 LyF3 ScRuB]

when my position is that "your team hasn't gotten better" and you tell me about position groups that are unchanged, that's not really making a new point. they've basically held par or downgraded at nearly every position. if benjamin shocks the world you can argue their receivers have gotten better, but i'm not sure he's going to make a big impact year 1. but cotchery/avant are not an upgrade to anything. pretty much every receiving core in the NFL outside of cleveland is better than that

alright

We have the best front 7 in the NFL, with the reigning DPOY and a QB that proved to be clutch throughout the year. He has progressed yearly, as have our front seven. Our running game is one of the best in the NFL, and there's absolutely zero reasons to think that will change this year other than the loss of Smith and Gross. But we have seen receivers excel in their first year, and there's no reason to believe Benjamin can't do that. Especially considering he is a big receiver, with speed, and had the biggest hands in the draft. at "a miracle". No buddy, this isn't your Raiders..

[N0 LyF3 ScRuB]

They got their much-needed playoff experience in one game where they got slapped around in front of their fans?

I don't know why you're talking considering your team the bed hard last year and missed the entire post-season.

that Flacco contract.

[DD]

you don't think the potential Geno Smith-Matt Schaub greasefire has entertainment value?

Fair point, tbh...Curious Geno is always good TV

[DD]

I don't know why you're talking considering your team the bed hard last year and missed the entire post-season.

that Flacco contract.

Flacco's now throwing to your childhood hero, so i understand your rage my son.

[Trainwreck2100]

Safest play is the Houston play imo

[spurraider21]

alright

We have the best front 7 in the NFL, with the reigning DPOY and a QB that proved to be clutch throughout the year. He has progressed yearly, as have our front seven. Our running game is one of the best in the NFL, and there's absolutely zero reasons to think that will change this year other than the loss of Smith and Gross. But we have seen receivers excel in their first year, and there's no reason to believe Benjamin can't do that. Especially considering he is a big receiver, with speed, and had the biggest hands in the draft. at "a miracle". No buddy, this isn't your Raiders..

why do you bring the raiders into this . i dont pimp them like they're something they're not. and again, you are basically backing up my point that you haven't made improvements. i didn't say the panthers are a bad team, just that they're no better than they were last year, while the rest of the division improved. that should be a cause for concern imo. fwiw there are a lot of big/fast receivers, but everywhere you go to read up on benjamin says that he's pretty raw and a majority of his impact is expected to be limited to the redzone in his rookie year

[Avante]

Historical data such as your historically bad betting record over the last two seasons for a so-called "betting expert"?

I have this thing about me doing all the work then handing out free plays. I just don't like it.

But, it is time for guys like you to see what real NFL handicapping is like. I can tell nobody here really understands it.

Blake was acting so stupid over it we just had to mess with the freak, those days are over now, time to educate a messageboard on NFL handicapping.

Ya see little man a team will be one of four things...

Home favorite-HF
Home dog-HD
Road favorite-RF
Road dog-RD

(small (getting 3 or less) HD's historically the best play)

...your job is to compare how the teams play in whatever role they are in that week. You are looking for....HF 12-2 vs RD 2-12 type numbers. That giving the HF a 24-4 trend.

Yes it's time comsuming eliminating all but the three best plays where one team has an overwelming advantage like 24-4.

Now what are the odds of plays that strong all losing on the same weekend?

That is just a sample of one betting angle that works a solid 65 % of the time. There are others.

Yes you will need to know where to find the info you need, I have all that.

I realize you are a little prick who gets a nut ing with everyone so it will be fun watching you this season. It will be,....ok so where are you getting those plays....hahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!

Check it our slick. If ya played Seattle at home vs the number since RW showed up...13-5. If ya played Indy since Luck showed up at home vs the number....12-4-1

So just by backing RW/Luck at home...25-9-1. Tons of winners like that, as a serious player it's your job to find them.

[J.T.]

Hope the Colts upset Denver. They can definitely do it, but I'm going to be at the game so another 4th quarter comeback for Luck would be cool to see.

[spurraider21]

Our running game is one of the best in the NFL, and there's absolutely zero reasons to think that will change this year

Former Panthers OG Travelle Wharton has retired from the NFL.

Wharton was quietly one of the best guards in the entire league last season, but the 33-year-old is hanging 'em up in hopes of enjoying a normal post-football life. "It's time," said Wharton. "I just had to admit it." Four members of the Panthers' 2013 offensive line group have now retired this offseason, with Wharton joining LT Jordan Gross, C/G Jeff Byers, and C/G Geoff Hangartner.

[Pelicans78]

Yeah, the Panthers haven't impressed me this offseason. The Saints were neck and neck with them last season and made upgrades across the board as well as having a young team that's expected to improve. Tampa worries me more than the Panthers.

[Aztecfan03]

Let's break it down...

Arizona as a HF on Monday Nights....0-3
Chargers as a RD on Monday Nights...3-4

Arizona has sucked on Monday Nights...3-10 vs the number in all roles. Chargers not a of a lot better.


Then there's this little gem....Chargers have gone 9-3-1 as road dogs the last two seasons. The Cards a weak 3-5 as HF the last two seasons.

Uh. Oh. Chargers are going to lose now...