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What are the available FA for that year?
I think #2 is likely if we don't win a championship next year, and #3 likely if we do repeat.
I thought this could be a fun little thread to talk about during the dead time between now and the World Cup.
We all know that the Spurs are in line for at least a couple of substantial changes to their roster. This is because the vast majority of the players currently in Silver and Black are set to be free agents after this up-coming season. However, the extent to which the main rotation will be altered is up in the air. Depending on who retires, who the team wants to back and the value of the contracts any returning players get, we could see a nearly complete return of the current roster, a 60-percent turnover or something in between. As a result of that uncertainty, I have made three scenarios for cap space that the team may have going into next July:
1: $20-Million, Full Max -- The assumption here is that Tim and Manu retire (or one takes the room exception or a min salary) and no one other than Green re-signs. It also assumes Leonard does not get an extension this off-season and that the Spurs don't use their full MLE for anything longer than a one-year contract.
2: $9 Million - $14 Million, Very Good Vet FA -- The main way this would happen is if Kawhi re-ups for the max this summer. This may very well happen for reasons several posters have pointed out recently. I'd peg an extension as being slightly more likely than not, honestly. The other way it could happen is if Tim and/or Manu reups next off-season for more than the min or room exception. If they want to keep playing in a Spurs uniform, you can believe that they would both be given blank checks. Seeing as Tim looks like he could play another three years, I'd say that makes this scenario even more likely.
3: No Space, MLE: This would happen either if all three of the things in 2 were to occur (Kawhi extension and Tim and Manu reupping) or if a combination of those occurs and someone like Daye, Baynes or Beli remain with the team beyond this season while getting a substantial pay raise. This is a likelier scenario than people may want to believe. If there was anything new to take from this off-season it's that the FO will keep this team together without a second thought to future cap space. When you factor in the two exceptions, Jean-Charles coming over and a cap hold for next year's pick, it would only take about $10 Million in reupped contracts for the Spurs to be over the cap next July.
The point of this thread is to pick one potential FA for each scenario. The player just has to be reasonably likely to hit the market (like having a PO or being in the last year of a rookie deal but not in line for an extension) to qualify.
For example, my picks:
1: Aldridge, 2: Brook Lopez (EDIT: changed from David West), 3: Seraphin
TL;DR: Just read the thread. It's not that long.
Last edited by Chinook; 08-04-2014 at 12:52 AM.
What are the available FA for that year?
I think #2 is likely if we don't win a championship next year, and #3 likely if we do repeat.
http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/99...ents-2014-2015
The right column, although obviously, some players have extended and aren't actually going to be FAs.
Working within the realm of possibilities for all three options (even if No 2 is the most probable, in my opinion):
a) Kevin Love (if the Cavs come up short this year).
b) Amir Johnson for a contract starting with $9 million/year. And Duncan (for sure) returning, while Manu might come back.
c) Jimmy Butler/ DeMarre Carroll if Manu retires. Omer Asik if TD retires.
Love the idea of Amir. I had no idea his contract was up. The Spurs could finally correct a wrong from years ago.
I don't get your choices for c), however. Do you really think Butler and/or Asik will make less than the MLE next off-season? I don't. I could see them both getting deals averaging eight figures, due to hype at least. Carroll would be a solid choice, though.
Thanks.
#1 Marc Gasol
#2 Robin Lopez
#3 Nick Collison
Butler, I think, will get the Wes Matthews treatment. Good enough for full MLE, I thought. Asik was a long shot.
1. Al Jefferson, (I'm sucker for bigs with great post play, Big Al is 5 months older than L.A both are 29) LaMarcus Aldridge
2. Paul Milsap , Roy Hibbert (Think Pop could crack the code, still a great rim protector but can be Jekyll & Hyde on the glass and on offense in general)
3. Jordan Hill (over payed but on a team option and very productive, (21 mpg, 9.7 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 54.9% FG) Brandon Bass (I've always of liked his game) Al Farouq Aminu
I like Collison a lot,a bit old for my list though (he'd be 34 by next off season) but was a underrated reason why OKC beat us in '12. He lateral quickness allowed him to slide over and cut off Splitter and drives from Parker and Ginobili.
I find myself intrigued by Brook Lopez for a contract on the high end of 2 or the very low end of 1. He's a true center, so his fit with Splitter would not be ideal. But he's a tremendous offensive big who can score from anywhere inside the arc and is better defensively than he gets credit for. Obviously, the biggest concern is his injury history. But that's also a reason why he would possibly be available next year. If he could be had for a $31M/2 $42M/3 or a $64M/4 with the last year non-guaranteed, I'd be pretty excited about the team's prospects for several years.
1-Nobody.
Historically the stars FA's aren't willing to play in San Antonio. Also they won't sign if in their 2nd year, Pop/Tim/Manu are gone
2-Dragic, Millsap
3-Gerald Green
So you wouldn't want a max player? This thread isn't about correctly predicting what's going to happen (for you'd be correct about 1 in that case). It's about picking who you'd like to see the team get in each scenario.
Sorry, I'm just trying to be realistic but you're right so...1-Love
I'll take him for the MLE. Basically taking over the Bonner role.
Fat Gasol
Amir Johnson
Mike Miller
I think Tim re-signs for something like 2yrs/15 mil and Manu for 2yrs/9 mil. After re-signing Green and extending Kawhi for the max the Spurs would be left with the MLE only. I don't expect them to sign a FA with cap space money, even if they have some left, and then go over the cap with Leonard - that's something a team like the Knicks or Lakers could afford to do, but not the Spurs.
As for the scenarios :
1. Lopez
2. Split between 2 or 3 players
3. Split the MLE
Listing first and second choice for each level.
1. a) Marc Gasol b) Aldridge
2. a) Afflalo b) Stoudemire (1 year deal only)
3. a) Mike Dunleavy Jr b) Darrell Arthur
I would have included Deng and Miller in categories 2 and 3 respectively, but I think they will end up opting in and not be free agents next summer.
Stoudemire would be used to keep our flexibility going forwards if there is nobody else we like. Give him a 1 year deal, see if he can stay healthy and if he fits in the system. If it doesn't work out he comes off the books in 2016 and with Timmy and Manu certainly retiring by then we'll probably have cap space to look for another free agent.
1 Marc Gasol
2 a) Brook Lopez b) Amir Johnson
3 a) Brandan Wright b) Brandon Bass
I just realized all of my picks are bigs.
I disagree with OP. I actually think #1 is the most likely scenario of the 3.
More to the point, if #1 does indeed transpire, how on earth we can reasonably expect big-name free agents like Kevin Love or LaMarcus Aldridge to come to a small market like San Antonio if these same free agents have historically opted to re-sign with their current teams or move on to a bigger market? This is especially less likely considering free agents would have virtually no interest in a playing for a Spurs team that would no longer feature Tim Duncan or Manu Ginobili.
Mike Miller ? dude will be in wheel chair in 2015
#1 Paul Milsap
#2 Paul Milsap
#3 Paul Milsap
Nobody want to play in SA because TD is still active and he will get all the spotlight. If he retires, there will be space for a star in the team and will be easier to get top free agents.
1. Marc Gasol/LaMarcus Aldridge
2. Brook and Robin Lopez
3. Glen Rice Jr/Jimmer Fredette/Tyler Hansbrough
I think the top free agents like and want to play in big markets but I'm glad to read your optimistic point of view.
If the best PF of all time and one of the best coaches in NBA history not served as a powerful incentive to play here, I'm not sure how Tim's retirement will increase our chances to sign star FA's, San Antonio will be a small-market-rebuilding team.
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