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avante do you know what the word credibility means?
i know you have an aversion to reading books and such, but i'm sure you've come across that word.
Whatever.
The bottom line in picking straight up is home/road. It's huge!
A must for any NFL gambler
http://www.nfl.com/standings
avante do you know what the word credibility means?
i know you have an aversion to reading books and such, but i'm sure you've come across that word.
Do you understand the words.....common sense? Why did I play 330 on that Atlanta game, why did I play the Chargers vs Seattle, the 0-2 Giants vs the 2-0 Texans? Why do I have a system already up three games?
Dude, come on man.
How do I play a 110-64 system (slight variation) for years and lose?
you didn't answer my question
According to a little math, your strategy would have at best a 73-percent success rate (straight up).
It obviously relies on some assumptions.
First, that the bottom-five teams would lose all their home games (unrealistic, but not horribly so, as they'll probably only win one or two each and this is just an example)
Second, the odds of the remaining 27 teams winning their home games is uniform (also unrealistic, but again not horribly so because it evens out the first assumption)
Third, that the total number of home wins in a season would be 146 (57 percent of the 256 total home games in a season rounded to the nearest whole number)
With those assumptions in mind, betting on all home teams except the bottom five (against whom you bet regardless) would give you 186 wins for a season. Once you divide that by 256, you get a 72.7 percent success rate.
You didn't answer mine, so you think that system is bogus?
i asked you first
Where are we going with this? If youi can hit 10/11 each week picking straight up you'll win most contests.
I started doing this about 20 years ago, usually hitting around 55=60% then about five years ago I discoverd .....play the top five ATS teams from the previous season***....so I have been. With a few exceptions. You sw how it works last week...3-1.
We ed around here a couple years with the dummies like Blake/CN just for yucks. Not this season and it's already pretty obvious where it's heading.
*** if the coach/QB are the same.
Over the course of a season, such a strategy would lose to someone who's just picking the Vegas favorite. You'd hit on at most 186 of them, and the Vegas-picker would hit on 192. That's like having a complicated strategy for picking the side of a coin that yields a 49-percent success rate when just always picking one or the other will get you a 50-percent rate.
Avante, what do you think of my 10-1 record this week?
Are you telling me ya just pick the favorites?
I'd have to have you break each game down and explain why you made the play. If ya can't do that....lucky!
Lol, no. I don't look at Vegas odds at all. So I don't even know who the favorite is most weeks. I only make picks on here and even then only during the playoffs and as part of the discussion for those games.
why can't you answer a very simple question?
The same reason you can't...."you're right the Raiders suck in the eastern time zone"...regardless of who the coach/players are, so I was wrong about that.
So what do you look for when making your picks?
Usually the teams themselves. By the playoffs, we have a pretty good idea of who everyone is and how they match up with other teams. Obviously I look at some historic things like, "Player X is a choker" or, "So and so doesn't play well away from home." But it's rarely statistical.
So you totally ignore...
heading into a bye week
second road game in a row
second home game in a row
coming out of a bye
after a big division game
after a Thursday/Monday night
playing on a Thursday/Monday night
None of that matters?
Almost none of that applies to playoff games. The home/away stuff factors in a little bit if there is an egregious trend (like with Seattle a couple of years ago). But it's more of a season thing than a historical thing.
I confess I;m having a hard time understanding you. You are just talking playoff games?
well there's a in surprise
That coming from a guy who...."how can any of that matter when there are different coachs and players involved"...as you watch the Raiders lose another eastern time zone game, hahaha!!!!!!well there's a in surprise
Chinook
So why all that stuff about picking straight up during the season?
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