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I have been saying that all along.
Let's talk about...."spots"....ok?
As we all know USC will beat Sacramento State 100 out of 100 games, nothing will matter. There is nothing that can even these two teams out, that isn't the case in pro football. All it takes is a big special teams play and a couple turnovers.
So we need to look for .."spots'...where one team has all the advantages when playing the ATS side of things.
Lets look at my plays today as an example.
The Eagles coming off a loss on the road now at home, a great "spot" for any team as we saw with the Pats. The Eagles got up too big too early and failed to cover by ...2...points.
The Broncos are great coming out of a bye week they proved that today.
The Jets totally suck, the Chargers at home laying less than a TD, a great "spot" for them and it was easy.
The Bears getting points vs a Panthers team with no running backs, it looked like a great "spot". So the Panthers run back a funky punk. Simply bad luck.
The Saints are not the ....home team...they were, we saw that today. What look like a great "spot'...nope!
Next week we have this "spot".
The Bengals at home (after a loss), a place where they haven't lost since 2013 vs a Panthers team that needed a weird punt return to beat the Bears at home. A perfect "spot" for a Bengals cover.
Alwys look at that weeks "spot" or situation. The Pats a great example of that, they went from one extreme to the other in a week, why.....yep.....a totally different "spot".
I have been saying that all along.
In the Russell Wilson era if you had played every Seahawk game, you'd be...27-13
In the Andrew Luck era the Colts....25-16
Who is the fool that thinks....
Seahawks
Colts
Chargers
Bengals
Broncos
...will lose more ATS plays the rest of the season than they win?
They went 3-1 today.
Last edited by Avante; 10-06-2014 at 01:17 AM.
OK...
MNF....Seahawks vs Redskins
Today we saw the Bengals coming off a bye on the road in a big Nationally televised game, how'd they look?
Well there is no team in the league as bad coming off a bye as the Seahawks. They are 8-19 SU and as a RFATS 3-4. Now on MNF as a RFATS.....1-2.
The Redskins as HD on MNF....4=6.
The Redskins at home again this week, will they lose two in a row?
Obviously the Seahawks are the better team, but this isn't the best "spot" for them as far as ATS goes. Home teams are 7-3 in these MNF/TNF games.
And ya can't really make a case for the Redskins. So ya.....pass the game.
Last edited by Avante; 10-06-2014 at 02:39 AM.
I love the attention and it's funny how so many are so concerned over my picks, hahaha!!!!!!!!!!! I've lost 4 games by a combined total of 7 points. I've lost two games when having a 20 point lead. I pulled out of a win because of a bogus weather report. I could easliy be 18-9.
Slow down people, we have months of games to go and 'm going to win 65% of these games, I always do.
The pro game is funny, a team looks like in a game or a couple games and they suck, hahaha!!!!! A team looks good a couple weeks they are SB contenders, hahaha!!!!!!!!!
Does anyone out there pay any attention at all to scheduling? The Pats started out playing three of their first four games on the road. You don't ignore that. What if they had started out playing three homes games in the first four weeks?
Look at the situation/"spot' these teams are in, yes it does matter. Look at good teams losing a road game then the following week back at home. Watch Cincy next week at home coming off a loss.
Pay attention to things like double road/double home, heading into a bye/coming off a bye, coming off a Thursday game. All that stuff matters.
And.....don't act like a re ed monkey over the first six or so weeks of a new season. Give things a little time. Last season the Lions were 3-1 so what they end up...6-10, we see tons of that sort of thing. So slow down, give things some time.
except the last two years where you hovered around 50 percent
Why not actualy pay attention if you're all that concerned? Just this week.....lose one game by 1 point, pull off a game because of a bogus weather report, blow a 20 point lead in another. And....a punt return costs me another. And that's how it's been so far. That can't last.
. in my only losing week we saw the Jets go for two and the Steelers blow a 20 point lead. Could easily have been 2-1.
I'm getting no breaks at all and still 13-14.
This is the first year I decided to post my legit $$$$ plays, lets see how it goes.
Last edited by Avante; 10-06-2014 at 01:20 PM.
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/lying
lying
noun
1. the telling of lies, or false statements; untruthfulness: From boyhood, he has never been good at lying.
Synonyms: falsehood, falsity, mendacity, prevarication.
Antonyms: truth, veracity.
adjective
2. telling or containing lies; deliberately untruthful; deceitful; false: a lying report.
Synonyms: deceptive, misleading, mendacious, fallacious; sham, counterfeit.
Antonyms: true, candid, actual, correct, accurate, trustworthy
I'm already way ahead of where I was the last two seasons, you really haven't noticed that?
One losing week. And if the Jets kick the extra point and the Steelers don't blow a 27-3 lead...2-1 there. , 2 points from going 4-2 this week.
As of right now, each teams best win.
Arizona....Chargers/Niners
Atlanta....Saints
Baltimore...Steelers
Buffalo...Lions
Carolina....Lions
Chicago...Niners
Cincy....Ravens
Cleveland...Saints
Dallas....Texans
Denver....Colts
Detroit...Packers
Green Bay....Bears
Houston....Billls
Indy...Ravens
Jax....hahaha!!!!!
Kansas City...Pats
Miami....Pats
Minnesota...Falcons
New England....Bengals
New Orleans....Vikings
Giants...Texans
Jets...Raiders
Oakland...hahahaha!!!!!!
Philly....Colts
Pittsburgh....Panthers
St. Louis...Buc;s
San Diego,...Seahawks
San Francisco...Cowboys/Eagles
Seattle....Broncos
Tampa Bay...Steelers
Tennessee...Chiefs
Washington...Jags
After five weeks
Most points scored....Eagles/Colts 156
Least amount of points scored.....Raiders 51
Least points given up....Chargers 63
Most points given up....Jags 163
The Colts have scored 156 and givenn up 108, so they are a plus 48
The ans have scored 88 and given up 139, so they are minus 51
The game is in Indy, there the Colts are 2-1 while the ans are 1-2 on the road.
This should be an easy ATS play.
Last edited by Avante; 10-07-2014 at 01:29 AM.
That's cool. Too bad this game happened over a week ago.
Well no , dude...come on. That was an example of a good way to get a read on things...ok?
Amazing.
You do know Indy plays Houston this Thursday right old man?
Alzheimer's is a , pretty soon you'll forget how to breathe and die
Mason made the picks
You do know that was an example of why the ATS play in that Indy/Tenn game had to be Indy.....right?You do know Indy plays Houston this Thursday right old man?
Alzheimer's is a , pretty soon you'll forget how to breathe and die
Work on those comprehension skills slick, ok?
What's ing funny is nobody can...'Russell Wilson can't...."....any longer. All anyone can say is..."yep, the guy is great"...or nothing at all.
Nobody in the league has a better..."intelligence/arm/mobility"....combo than this guy. No QB is harder to defend than RW.
Last edited by Avante; 10-08-2014 at 12:17 PM.
As of right now.
Top 10 QB's
1.Peyton
2.Rodgers
3.Rivers
4.Brady
5.Brees
6.RW
7.Luck
8.Romo
9.Big Ben
10. Ryan
How does...
Division winners...
Seattle
GB
Philly
NO
Denver
Cincy
Indy
NE
Wildcards
Niners
Cowboys
Chargers
Ravens
look?
You know nothing in your wording indicated you were talking about a game that already happened, right? You know stats through week 5 wouldn't have mattered for a week 4 game, right?
I do make this mistake constantly on these boards and do admit it. I do assume things are totaly obvious when it appears they aren't.
I was just trying to use some numbers to illustrate a point. It could have been any two teams and even bogus numbers. The point was when see those kinds of numbers what should that tell us, what message does it bring?
This week for an example....
Indy at Houston on a Thursday night. A big division game, which means both will bring it.
Indy is a RF, in that "spot" on a Thursday night.....7-1, vs their div...5-1, yep ATS.
Houston in this "spot"....1-1 as a dog, vs the div..0-2.
So we have Indy with a 15-3 trend favoring them to cover. No team has won more games than Indy on a Thurday night, they are 10-1, that is the best in the league.
Now add this...
Since Luck arrived Indy is 3-1 ATS vs Houston.
So what's the obvious play?
I will lay the 2.5 in this "spot" and take Indy. Andrew Luck vs Ryan Whoever.....gotta love it!
Since Luck has arrived Indy is 11-2-1 ATS vs the division.
Now before some rookie...."but most those years it was Peyton....." it doesn't matter since this is a division game. The Colts rule that division.
Last edited by Avante; 10-08-2014 at 02:47 PM.
So who out there can make a case for Houston and the points in this "spot"? Indy being the one team where that Thursday night thing doesn't appear to matter.
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