And people thought that Kawhi wouldn't demand a max contract after that ridiculous TP contract...
Spurs are playing this smart. They won't sign him until after the season. This way they can extend his deal long into to big revenue (salary cap) bump that will occur in 2016.
It makes all the sense in the world to sign Kawhi next offseason and give him for full five year extension. Plus it gives to Spurs an opportunity to see if his play improves and his knee hold up.
Nothing changes with respect to the maximum length of the deal by waiting until next summer.
Last edited by Mel_13; 10-28-2014 at 02:26 PM.
Not true. I'm not advocating letting Kawhi walk at all. I'm discussing the risks and timing more than anything. I've said on multiple occasions I don't think he's a max player at the moment but I don't mind paying him when the time is right. Just don't bid against yourself.
Is that good?
Exactly. There is no need to sign him right now. Nothing changes between now and then except the health of Kawhi knees. I am hoping he has a long career without injuries. But he has had chronic knee issues.
Spurs IMHO should just wait until next year. This also gives the Spurs some wiggle room to sign someone if they are far enough under the cap being Kawhi's caphold is not going to be as much as a Max deal. With Duncan and Manu's futures in doubt, this would be the best course of action for the Spurs right now.
Green's and Leonards caphold will be low (6 and 9 mil) and the Spurs will have enough to sign a player like Marc Gasol and then resign Green and Leonard to deals. If the Spurs sign Kawhi right now, they will potentially lose 6+ mil in cap space to sign a player to fill Duncan's role. If Duncan or Manu doesn't retire, then it probably doesn't matter. But if both do, then it will.
Just best for the FO to wait out and see how next year's offseason plays out.
Yeah, you've just restated what's been said in every Kawhi contract thread since last spring. We keep covering the same ground. (Not that there's anything wrong with that. Wth else are we gonna talk about anyway?)
1. The greatest advantage of waiting is retaining the extra cap space in 2015.
2. The greatest risk is that Kawhi won't sign a 5 year deal next summer and gets to unrestricted free agency as early as 2017 instead of 2020.
3. Everything else is much less important.
Sounds like CWS was saying that Kawhi should get less than the max APY. The only way that that can happen while also locking Kawhi up for five years is if they wait until the summer.
A thing to worry about is the possibility of the league doing a mini jump next off-season in relation to the cap. It's one thing to give a player a max deal assuming a $66-Million cap. But if the cap gets "smoothed over" and rises significantly, then players who got max extensions this off-season just got an increase in salary that their teams can do nothing to prevent.
I think the Spurs offer $90M/5 next off-season without reservation. But $105M/5 is a different story. That's Prime Duncan territory, and I think the team will try to negotiate for a deal pretty far below that.
Honestly, I haven't been reading any Kawhi threads til this one of late and I am agreement with the current philosophy the Spurs are taking. I don't see Kawhi walking. I see him taking the deal, especially being that Pop will be around for another 4-5 years.
I think a preliminary deal is already hammered out, which is what they were discussing. Duncan and Manu's decisions to retire or not is a huge factor in this decision.
If this goes until next summer, I can't see him taking five years unless he gets the max or very, very close to it. He'll sign a max offer sheet for less than five years before taking a much lower AAV in a longer deal.
Well, he'll be restricted so he can't walk. Whether he'll sign for five years without any early opt outs remains to be seen.
As to Duncan/Manu, it does appear that the Spurs are at least preparing for a scenario where one or both retire next summer.
Obviously depends on what kind of year he has. If he is the team's best player, I don't think he or the Spurs will have to negotiate very hard. If he battles injuries and the Spurs fail to repeat, I'm not sure anyone is going to drop a huge max deal on him before seeing what 2016 holds. Although I'm sure the Spurs would match it anyway.
Again, though, there's quite a bit of wiggle room in my opinion between a max offer sheet and a max contract from the Spurs. Assuming $105M/5 is the Bird contract, then a max offer sheet would be $78M/4. So the Spurs would be paying $27 Million for one extra year, which wouldn't make a lot of sense, since Kawhi's next max isn't likely to start higher than that if he were to get a new deal in 2019. Plus, that's so far in the future that no one really knows what kind of player Kawhi will be at that time. I don't think it's unreasonable or unlikely at all for the Spurs to be able to negotiate $7-10 Million off the total value of the contract.
Nobody comes and signs in SA anyways who is a big FA and we know that, but you are right.
We risk letting him go and getting nothing in return, no thank you. He can be a future all star in SA, I would pay him.
I wouldn't disagree. I took your words ("I think the team will try to negotiate for a deal pretty far below that") to mean something more substantial than 1.4-2.0M in AAV.
I see him getting the Max next summer. But Max or no Max, the Spurs will still get extra cap room by waiting.
Even at the Max, Kawhi would be paid FMV under bump in the Salary Cap to over 90 mil. Just look at Parker.
I would say Kawhi has as much value to the Spurs now as Parker did the past 5 years. Parker was paid 12.5 mil a year. That salary is equivalent of 21.5% of the avg. Salary Cap. Let's say the Cap bump ups to 90+ mil, which is projected for the 2016-2017 season. At 15-18 mil a year, that would put Kawhi's percentage of Salary at 16-18% of the Cap. As you can see, that still would be less than the value of the Parker's contract at 12.5 mil.
Kawhi is probably the best perimeter defender in the league, well, I would say tied with James as this point. His offense has improved each year as well. At a Rookie Max contract, he is worth it considering the Salary Cap bump that is coming in 2016. Kawhi is entering the prime of his career, not the twilight at this point.
Yeah, we've reached consensus on that in this thread and many before it.
The extra cap space is the primary reason to wait until next summer. My point remains that waiting does not come without potential costs. Many have presented the option as completely risk-free and cost-free for the Spurs. While the risks and costs may be worth it, they do exist.
That's what I'm saying. Kawhi, Splitter, Parker, Green, and whoever else are still a playoff team out west. Lose Kawhi and the Spurs can start preparing for some really ugly seasons.
KL is a better defender at this point. At least last year. Maybe it's due to his burden on offense last year but LeBron was good not great on defense and I would rather have Kiwis defense. Offense the gap favors James by triple ...but defensively I want Kiwi ....especially on the perimter inside I would take LeBron due to strength but KKL has better length.
True. But I think its worth it considering both Duncan and Manu may retire this offseason. And it would be beneficial for the Spurs to have the cap space needed to sign someone like Marc Gasol to replace Duncan if that happens.
This could very well turn out like the Morey/Parsons situation this past summer. But unlike Morey, I am sure Pop had this discussion to let Kawhi know how much the Spurs value him and that a deal is in place. But they need to be definite that Duncan or Manu will be returning next season before resigning Kawhi, which is why I am not surprise a deal wasn't signed after their recent meeting. But I do think a deal was agreed upon for this summer.
Well, we were only talking about a difference of $3 Million APY as it was. But that value may make a big difference if the Spurs plan to have cap space in 2017 and/or 2018. A full max deal pretty much has to be structured one way, but a below-max deal can decrease in target seasons like Diaw's and Mills' do. An extra million or two can make the difference between having a max slot open or having to settle for lower-level free agents.
The Duncan/Manu situations obviously have an effect on the Spurs negotiating position. I'm not as confident as you are that the two sides have the parameters of a deal in place for next summer. In any event, Kawhi will eventually sign a multiyear deal for the max or something very close to it. If no extension is signed by Friday, we'll have to wait until July to know the details.
This is very true, sign him up. You won't get a guy near that in FA to SA and he loves it here so sign him up and call it a day. If they try to lowball him and he holds out or walks that will be very for the team, understatement.
No problem. Tbh, I didn't even do the math and just responded to the perceived sentiment.
As someone who has been in these discussions since we were talking about the "2008 plan" in 2006 and 2007, I find the whole notion of future cap space, and what can be done with that space, as a bit of a mirage. I'll stick to my opinion that waiting for next summer will result in Kawhi reaching unrestricted free agency before 2020, perhaps as early as 2017. That's why I'll remain in the minority that hopes for a deal on an extension. Once we get past Friday, I'll get on board with the future discussions.
That's fair. I will say that the team sure seems to make plans for future cap space, with '08,'10, '12 plans being ones that they had to scrap. Next summer looks like it will finally be the time the Spurs will have cap space, and they set up their contracts accordingly, but they also seem to have done the same thing for 2017, which is why I think it's the next year of their plan. While I don't know that the team will have cap space when that summer actually comes, I would think they'd be negotiating with Leonard with the idea any money he gives back would go toward that season's cap.
You're right that we'll have a better idea in a few days. I think we'd know by now if the league had made clear whether they intend to artificially pump up next year's cap or not.
Seems like a lot of people do not understand the effect a price ceiling has on price as opposed to valuation. Much like Chinook and categorization and negative proofs. Extending assertions without understanding the paradigm is arbitrary.
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote
