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Fuzzy is the WORST poster on ST and that's saying something.
I get that you're trying to get me back into the Club thread. I'll be there some time this evening. Don't worry. Doesn't make sense to try to derail this thread, though.
Anyway, I don't think many of us are failing to see anything that you're talking about. There are threads downstairs talking about how max deals affect the value of players. This thread has almost nothing to do with actual dollars, but timing and the cost of waiting.
To me those were always contingency plans. If the wheels fell off, they weren't going to bad AND in salary cap for more than one summer. Now Tim and Manu can't play forever and they're going to have to employ those contingency plans in the near future. If they can remain near the top of the league after losing those two, it will really be remarkable and without any precedent in the last 40 years.
Honestly, it is not like KL is Duncan. He can be replaced (not saying it is easy).
And Even with him, are you sure it is a playoffs team? Parker will get older, Kawhi has yet to prove he can be a team leader... And last year the Suns won 48 games not 38 like the Hawks.
By the way, I am not sure becoming the Hawks of the west is a great plan.
Well, I realize I don't mind what happen once Duncan is gone.
No his own hard work made him what he is today. Article after article talks about the amazing work he puts in outside of practice, and during the offseason. The spurs clearly helped him, but they can say "do this, do that" all they want, but it won't matter if the player doesn't put in the work.
Last I heard, Kawhi prefers driving his old Chevy Malibu to his Porsche. Elfus is trying to do his job and Kawhi is his biggest client. I see this more from the agent's perspective than Kawhi driving the "Max" word. I don't see Kawhi leaving the Spurs.
It all depends on who else is on the team after Duncan and Manu.
Kawhi will be the bridge for the transfer of many of the qualities that make this organization great. High skilled and high character guys are not very common in the league. On top of that he's been molded for four years(after this year) by our vets. The Spurs won't and shouldn't let him go.
This, tbh.
A lot of this max talk is probably coming from his agent...
If they sign Gasol they can't sign Green, even if they don't extend Leonard this week.
Spurs cap space may be 24/27 next summer, the max contract for players that have been in the league for more than six years is 30% of the cap, 19.95M, and Danny won't sign a 4M deal again.
Agree but is not for one extra year, signing the bird contract could mean two more years even three, if the max offer sheet is 4Y last year player option like Love, or a short 3 years offer like Parsons.
To a certain extent, yeah. But depending on how short Leonard's deal is, he'd still be under the lower-max level in future years. It's not likely he'd be able to get a $48M/2 deal In free agency to make up for what he's losing from the Bird deal.
In a world where the cap does a mini jump next summer, a Bird deal should give Kawhi the highest payout he can get over the first four years. It's possible that a four-year Bird deal plus a new Bird would net him more over five years, though.
I have the same view, no-signing the extension will accelerate Leonard's camp decision to enter free agency in 2017 or like you said before 2020
Dude, the Spurs have only 33 mil in salaries committed to next season. The Salary Cap is projected to go up to 68mil next year and the Tax level will be 81mil. Green and Kawhi capholds come to about 15mil for the Spurs. That will put the Spurs right at 48mil, which gives them the 20 mil cap space they need to sign Gasol, but imo, I think they can sign him for a little less than that. Remember, they can resign Green over the cap being they have his Bird rights, same with Kawhi.
But this all hinges on if both Manu and Duncan retire. If one doesn't, it won't matter. But I think both will stay for at least another year. But just in case, its best for the Spurs to have that extra 6mil in cap space to sign Duncan's replacement.
Yep. The cap is going to get much bigger, so today's max contract will be tomorrow's reasonable deal. I say give him the max contract now, and then when the Big Three are gone we can decide whether to build around KL or deal him for picks and start over. His contract will be more tradeable later, because it will be sub-max under the next CBA.
The reality is, under the new CBA even contracts for superstars are shorter, so the days of assembling a good nucleus and keeping them together for many years, a la the Spurs' Big Three, are pretty much over. It's rare to find players who see the value of taking less coin to ensure long term stability and flexibility.
I disagree with that COMPLETELY. I don't even think the Spurs want him to sign ANY extension, because that shuts the door on FA acquisitions next summer. I actually don't think they MIND paying him the MAX, even for 5 years, but they don't want to do it NOW. Timing is everything.
What are some of the options the Spurs have, and what are the risks and benefits of each?
I am trying to look at all the scenarios:
Scenario 1:
The Spurs sign Kawhi to an extension (max or not).
Benefits - No risk of him leaving for nothing, lock him up to another 4 or 5 years, should be a decent deal given that the cap is expected to go up
Risk - Kawhi under performs, ends up massively overpaying him.
Scenario 2:
Wait till this summer, match an offer sheet from another team
Benefits - No need to outbid themselves now, can keep Kawhi anyways, can leave some cap space to sign a number of other free agents (who are the targets), maintain cap flexibility, another year to observe Leonard's growth, unlikely since Spurs are likely to match any offers anyways.
Risk - The terms of the contract will then be dictated by another team instead of by the Spurs. A one year qualifying offer will be the worst case scenario as Leonard will then be a UFA, with the new CBA coming in when his one year qualifying offer expires
Scenario 3:
Not sign Kawhi, no offers from other teams
Benefits - Most of Scenario 2's benefits, Spurs can then dictate the terms, get him for a one year qualifying offer for cheap, then give him a long term deal under the new CBA.
Question - Can the Spurs sign Kawhi to an extension next summer instead?
Risk - Same as Scenario 2
Am I missing/misinterpreting anything here?
Scenario 1 also has the risk of there being a mini-jump which causes a max extension to increase dramatically in value from what we think it will be right now.
Scenarios 2 and 3 has the risk of Kawhi signing his QO, which makes him untradeable and unextendable. That would be a horrible place to be in for the Spurs.
Also, there's a Scenario 4, which is likeliest in my opinion. The Spurs don't extend Kawhi and then give him a new deal in 2015. That has all the benefits and detriments we've been discussing for months.
Chris_Broussard: Source: Jimmy Butler & Bulls unlikely to agree to contract extension before Fri deadline. Same w/Kawhi Leonard & SA
Well, I guess we know Kawhi's getting extended, then.
I agree with everything you've said, I think Greens cap hold ($7.6m) is about what he'll get so it doesn't make a huge difference, but on the chance he wants more than that then the cap hold is a useful tool. The Kawhi cap hold is big for us though.
I think the Room exception ($2.5m) is about fair for a 38 year old Ginobili, which means even if he comes back we'll have the cap space for a max free agent. The spanner in the works is Timmy, if both he and Manu want to return I suspect it's unrealistic to ask Timmy to take the Room exception and Manu to take the minimum, but if it means we get Marc Gasol I could imagine them taking it for their final season.
Edit: I imagine if we had a real shot at Marc and Timmy and Manu weren't willing to take such big cuts, we'd let Danny walk. We could see Timmy take $6m, Manu take the $2.5m room exception and we'd have a max available.
Another issue is the roster spot cap holds, which in that scenario would total $2.5m. Signing Gasol would be incredible but as others have said, he's likely staying in Memphis.
Last edited by Richie; 10-29-2014 at 09:18 PM.
Haven't read through the thread, but do the Spurs really think there isn't atleast one team out there that will offer Kawhi the max? Didn't guys like Hayward, Parsons and Bledsoe just receive the max this off-season? I understand trying to get a hometown discount but if his camp isn't budging just give him what he wants tbh.
He already has his championship ring and his NBA Finals MVP. This is his chance to get paid. Why shouldn't he?
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