Really? They're only 1.5 games out of the 8th seed and are clearly better than NO, despite tonight's outcome.
Personally, I'd be more worried about the Thunder finishing ahead of the Spurs than them not making the playoffs.
I'll get worried mid-March if we can't get everyone healthy and playing well... if that happens, then seeding likely doesn't matter anyways.
The '99 Knicks are the last team to get out of a conference without any HCA. If you look at their run it took 2 miracle shots for them to pull it of. The Allen Houston game winner against Miami in game 5 and LJ's 4 point play against the Pacers in the WCF. Just based off of history its going to take the spurs some luck to get out of the WCF without having HCA for the whole entire playoffs.
Yeah, true. That's why you don't really want to finish that low if you can help it.
The Spurs match up well with the Grizzlies, Warriors, Clippers, and Blazers that HCA may not matter in a series. People buy too much into the fact that the West is stacked but it really isn't, at least when looking at the matchups for the Spurs.
I would rather have HCA against Dallas (Carlisle's coaching) and Houston (bad matchup) though but this is all irrelevant if the Spurs don't get healthy. A healthy Spurs team should be the favorite against any team with or without HCA.
OKC is still the best suited team to beat the Spurs, but I don't think they can afford to be a low seed in the playoffs. 2nd round is currently their ceiling, imo. I think the Grizzlies would be a bad matchup for them.
If you go by the previous two seasons (12-13, 13-14), only two teams managed to end the season with a winning % greater than 70%: the Spurs and the Thunder.
Right now you have 9 teams playing over .700 ball and neither the Spurs or Thunder are one of them. Odds say it won't last. Injury, fatigue, boredom, matchups... whatever it is, eventually a bunch of those teams will start dropping games.
I know a top 4 seed looks very distant right now, but if the Spurs can weather the injury storm, get healthy, and get cracking, they'll have a solid shot to get there.
Don't disagree with the points in the OP, but it's not really arguable that the current Spurs(the past 2 years + this season) are the most unique and unconventional team in modern history, tbh..
You can point to many odds-defying traits of last year's le team:
- Only le team to have 0 players averaging 33 MPG or more in the playoffs
- Only le team to have 0 players averaging more than 15 FGAs per game in the playoffs
- Only le team to have 0 players averaging more than 17.5 PPG in the playoffs
You can literally point out at least 10 statistical traits that stood out, but those 3 are major factors that many here(including some in this thread) claimed would hurt the Spurs in the playoffs(lack of a true go-to guy)..
FYI, the current favorites in the West have a major trend going against them, too: only 1 rookie coach in the modern era has led a team to the Finals(doesn't mean anything IMO, but just throwing it out there)..
I don't think you understand how easy their schedule has been so far, and how tough the rest of the year is for them. They have a terrible record, despite barely playing any good team. They've lost to a ton of bad teams. That's a horrible situation to be in.I couldn't believe how many doubted them in the first place. It was stupid then, but it's flat out insane now.
No matter how well they play they're not going to win a huge percentage of their remaining games.
I still think they'll make it because New Orleans is, IMO, not a good team yet. But they could still miss the playoffs, and probably won't get any higher than the 8th seed. If Durant or Westbrook misses significant time from now on, they won't make it.
Anyway this year's Western Conference is an anomaly. So anything could happen.
If this had to happen only one year, this would be the one.
Spurs can win any series without HCA, even against the Thunder. But I doubt they can win a championship without HCA in each playoff series - and thats what it looks like right now. It would take much more energy out of our guys to win without HCA. Its so much easier to go up 2-0 and then take 1 of 2 on the road ...
When healthy, this team plays a game that barely resembles what the rest of the league is doing. There is not a precedent, IMO. The ONLY concern is to 1) Make the playoffs. 2)Be healthy. If those two things occur, the Spurs will repeat. Just look at how they compete missing 5 or 6 important pieces - the entire starting lineup!?! Just relax. Spurs got this.
Well, at the rate things are going, I think we are going to find out.
I think we play more focused on the road than at home. Plus for some reason scrubs from the opposition have s tendency to hit lucky fluke shots in our gym.
It's almost as if some people here didn't watch San Antonio annihilate Portland and Miami in historic fashion 6 months ago.
They didn't drop enough games while the guys were out and neither PHX nor NO outperformed, so it ended up being easier than thought. Not to mention the guys came back earlier than anticipated against a string of bad teams and then got the Cavs minus Lebron
Just sign Smith for 3years MLE and we will be fine.
Also, the one thing HCA gives you is a bogey in the event you do blow a game at home. Without it + home loss, winning 2 of 4 on the road against a good team is a tough task albeit not insurmountable. To me, it matters most for teams that enjoy a significant advantage at home.
When all is said and done, we'll be around 52-55 wins. We'll see if that's good enough for 2nd or 6th... As long as we don't have to play the Thunder 4 out of 7 in Meth City.
To be clear: For all those who lack basic reading comprehension, I'm not suggesting this is unattainable either. So I don't want to see some spin job at the end of the season if they finish with a top four seed.
Of course, both the Spurs and Thunder are unique to virtually every team that has ever been in this situation, at least in recent memory. To me, they're still the two best teams in the league, but four rounds without home court would still be a daunting task and probably even more impressive than any of the odds-defying traits you mentioned.
That goes without saying though. So when I say, "it was stupid then, but it's flat out insane now", it's based on that premise. Like when I said a year ago that the Spurs couldn't beat the Thunder in a series.
It won't be me. Solid discussion IMO
No.
I expect the Spurs to step on the gas pedal and rack up 10-15 wins when fully healthy.
It's still too early to assume this will be a relevant question. They could still very well end up in the top 4.
Indubitably.
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