We're midway through the season already, and the Spurs finally have (mostly) all the pieces available. It's been a really rocky first half, with a lot of injuries from a lot of different guys, many lineup shuffles and a pretty unforgiving schedule. The Spurs have weathered the storm fairly admirably, all things considered, and while the record could be better, the team has basically competed in almost every game. Hopefully the Spurs have turned a corner on the injury situation (at least anything major), and can start building towards being the best team they can be. In that, we need to take a look at the things we've been doing well, and the things we need to improve on.
Stats from: http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/tea...rt/assistRatio
Assist Ratio
The percentage of a team's possessions that ends in an assist
Spurs rank: #5 (18.6)
Top rank: Atlanta (19.6)
- The Spurs have shared the ball well, despite the missing bodies. This is an area where the team has done a good job, given that we don't really have superstar talent that can just solve possessions with a simple ISO. Looking at other teams, this is something where Golden State has improved dramatically year over year. The Spurs lead this ranking last season with a 19.1 ratio, so there's definitely some extra room to improve.
Pace Factor
The number of possessions a team uses per game
Spurs rank: #19 (95.7)
Top rank: Golden State (100.6)
- Pace isn't necessarily an area where you want to lead unless you have an off-the-charts offense, but you do want to be in the top half of the rankings, which normally means you're running out for the occasional easy points. The Spurs just haven't been able to run out much for easy points in the 1st half of the season, and this has both to do with a small slippage in perimeter defense and the fact that we've been missing young and speedy feet out there on the court. The Spurs ranked #12 (97.1) last season, so this is something that hopefully will improve now that we're getting healthier.
Turnover Ratio
The percentage of a team's possessions that end in a turnover
Spurs rank: #16 (13.6)
Top rank: Charlotte (11.1)
- Turnovers is an area where you can always do better, but despite claims to the contrary, the Spurs have generally done well so far. Last season the Spurs ranked #12 and had virtually the same ratio (13.5).
Rebound Rate
The percentage of missed shots that a team rebounds
Spurs rank: #10 (50.7)
Top rank: Sacramento (52.8)
- Rebounding is also virtually unchanged from last season (rank #13, 50.6). You can always do better, but the Spurs have done well enough so far.
Effective Field Goal Percentage
Adjusted FG% for the fact that a 3-point field goal is worth one more point than a 2-point field goal
Spurs rank: #7 (51.3)
Top rank: Golden State (54.2)
- The Spurs have done well, but can do better in this area. Last season they ranked #2 (53.7) behind Miami. This is somewhat expected due to both the missing guys and Marco not being anywhere near the 3 pointer leader that he was for a good part of last season. All in all though, the Spurs have been certainly fairly effective shooting the ball.
Offensive Efficiency
The number of points a team scores per 100 possessions
Spurs rank: #12 (104.5)
Top rank: Dallas (110.6)
- This is certainly an area where the team has suffered a bit, especially compared to last season (rank #6, 108.2). The ball movement has been there, but the easy points have not, and our eFG% has been down a bit, so it's not surprising the overall offense has been down. This is probably the biggest area to improve, and hopefully a more rested team with an easier schedule and fresher bodies will be able to elevate the team offense.
Defensive Efficiency
The number of points a team allows per 100 possessions
Spurs rank: #6 (100.3)
Top rank: Golden State (97.3)
- The defense has actually been pretty steady. The Spurs ranked #4 (100.1) last season. I think this has a lot to do with the fact that the team came out of the gates playing terrific defense, and then slowly decayed as players were getting hurt. But overall, the Spurs are where they want to be, and looking at how they started the season, they should have some room to grow. There's just more teams playing better defense this season (so far anyways), so the Spurs should really aim to re-establish themselves at the top 5 in this ranking.
Conclusion
The champs are a team that relies heavily on their top 5-6 guys, the fact that some of them have been missing and some of the other ones have been playing too many games in too little time, has certainly taken a certain toll on the team's play. That said, it's pretty admirable that the team has been able to weather the storm and still post very compe ive numbers. Arguably, the Spurs could've easily won 5-8 more extremely contested games that came to a single basket at the end. You can attribute those to a plethora of things, from bad execution to tired legs to poor coaching to simply tough luck. Now that we have more talent available, hopefully some of those won't be longer a concern.
Ultimately, the offense looks to be the most affected by all this shuffling around. This is where the Spurs will have to put the onus on in the second half of the season, while tightening up things on the defensive end. A lot of times, great defense leads to easy points on offense, and while the Spurs have done an excellent job on D, they still have not been able to capitalize much from that on the other end. Look for that to change.
Feel free to add your own thoughts to this thread.
Looking at the differences between Wins and loses, the spurs for the most part have similar advanced stats save for Assist Ratio and the turnover ratio..
During spurs wins..
Assist ratio
20
Turnover ratio
14.6
During Loses
Assist ratio
16.6
Turnover ratio
15.6
to be fair to the team though, Losing a few players forced Pop to run a significant amount of ISO plays that obviously resulted in lower Assist ratio and higher turnover ratio...
Yeah, reviewing some of the numbers, I found somewhat surprising that the offense was the major issue. But it makes sense, because if we don't move the ball, we literally die, as was said many times in the Finals last season.
I'm looking at the stats game by game right now, but It would seem like the addition of Patrick Mills of the bench killed the Tim Duncan Post up ( Something that I have consistently complained about). That was truly a disaster, but I don't know if this is just coincidence or not...The spurs have moved away from those Post ups in the last 5 games and is really helping the team a ton.
It's really just a matter of personnel, bottom line.
So spurs fan should't worry.
A player got inured and the netrtg went from 9.7 in November to 1.3 in December...
The East is as weak as it's ever been and Vegas currently has the Hawks as 1/18 odds.
Happy holidays.
The hawks and to a lesser extent the bulls are the only real teams in the east..Honestly, I personally don't even believe in the Bulls...So that leaves Atlanta.
I'm keeping an eye on the thunder...seems like they are losing their game, and really hoping it doesn't come back ever.
Instead of going out to eat one night you could bet $50 on the Hawks to win it all and walk away with $900 if the do. Vegas is really slow to adjust to trends mid-season and barring injuries Atlanta is going to skate to at least the ECF. If I wasn't broke beyond all measure I would be betting cash on any true contender to emerge out of the East tbh. Atlanta's only problem might be that they have no answer to LBJ, but even so they will take the Cavs to school with an actual organized system.
They just adjusted Atlanta..
Even If you can get something like 12/1 that's still absurd for an elite team that's likely going to face Brooklyn/Detroit in round 1, Toronto/Chicago round 2, and god knows what ty team in R3. Give them a puncher's chance in the Finals and 12/1 is still a fantastic hedge.
They are 8/1 or 9/1 I think where I bet. lol
Jeez, most of what I'm seeing must not be up to date. 8 or 9/1 and you run up against health concerns to make real value bets. But I would still take them as 85% favorites to win the East today, and no team in the West would be a clear cut favorite against them tbh barring god mode from Curry/KD/Harden or the Spurs just trucking through everyone else. I would sit on 8/1 for a few weeks unless this run continues, but if Vegas starts to sleep on dem Hawks and they stay healthy, 8/1 would still be a nice hedge in May imo
No team in the East is going to get any respect. Only exceptions are the Cavs and Bulls if either get the 1 or 2 seed.
Atlanta has skull ed toronto bulls wizards and cavs twice this season. yeah they are gonna get respect.
There's still a lot of games left, trades, injuries... the picture can certainly change...
Sorry if it has been said before, but amazing stat from 48moh, the Spurs’ preferred starting five (Parker, Green, Leonard, Duncan, Splitter) had only played together EIGHT MINUTES this season
http://www.48minutesof .com/el-co...-fullish-squad
If we finally stay healthy, there are so many reasons to be optimistic.
The only thing I really fear is Timmy's shape and risk of injury because we played him too much, it won't/can't last...
He is, with Kawhi, one of our 2 irreplaceable/pillar players...
Wow... Finally something good to read around here.
agreed. thanks for the write up elnono
Really nice read.
This just shows that there is a lot of teams playing at a high level but also that Spurs with all injuries are not that far from being a threat in the playoffs.
Thanks for an enjoyable, thought-provoking write-up, E-N.
I was honesty surprised at some of the stats that you included. I wouldn't have imagined that we were as close to last year's numbers as we are.
One that wasn't surprising, however, was the relatively poorer offensive efficiency rating from last year. While I agree with your assertion that the team has in fact been passing the ball around, I also think that, although some passing was happening, the actual scoring was more of an iso factor than it was last year. So much of our higher efficiency was a function
of the 'beautiful game' that the shots, when taken, were so much easier than almost any iso shot ever taken by anyone.
Plus, we all saw that our offense struggled early in the season trying out some new and different offensive set looks. Everyone was trying to get used to it and it really made us look a bit goofy at times. It truly makes a huge difference when all of our players are healthy at the same time and playing well.
Interesting also that, given the relative needs of offense vs. defense improvement, that the team today added Jamychal Green. (Did I spell his name right? Apologies if not)
Great read and great work. I too am surprised we have come out of the dark days of December looking as good as we do. It will be interesting to see how we improve moving forward. Thanks!
thanks
Good stuff, ElNono. I track these stats as the season progresses, but I'm too lazy to put them all together for easy consumption. So, thanks.
One suggestion, if you plan on maintaining this thread. Given the team's emphasis on defensive boards, consider separating the rebounding #s into offensive and defensive rebounding.
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