You are basically making the argument that the Spurs unmatched ability to find and retain great talent is the reason they won't be able to find and retain great talent. Money and taking backseat to the core have been the problem in landing big free agents. Once the core is gone those won't be issues. If you want to think Kawhi is sitting around questioning if the Spurs know how to put together a great team then enjoy your fantasy.
Well, of course it's difficult to tell, but wouldn't that make small markets less appealing? If there's no certainty about direction, wouldn't it make more sense to sign up on a place where the revenue and exposure would be higher?
One of the favorable points I made in the OP is franchise stability, and I think that's underrated. For example, you would suspect the Lakers would be an enticing destination right about now, considering their cap situation, etc. But that FO is a mess.
I know his agent just wants the money, and he'll likely get that money from a lot of teams, but the career aspect can be a tricky decision.
I have to admit that cracked me up.
That's where a lot of this sort of discussion goes off the rails, IMO. None of us really knows what Kawhi's priorities are, and many here will project there own desires and emotions into the situation. Kawhi has said he wants to stay in SA for the long term. Until I hear otherwise from him, that's what I'll go with.
I'm not saying that at all. What I'm saying is that when it comes to luring top of the line FAs, the Spurs have, at the very least, an unproven record.
Money-wise, the two players walking away make a combined $17m... that's borderline one max deal (depending on how many years the guy that you're hiring has played), which is basically what Kawhi would be taking as his deal (until we get cap figures, it's difficult to know with certainty), and the Spurs already are committed to nearly $30m (+ that max deal) in salaries for the next two seasons.
There's nothing questionable about thinking that when two HoF walk away from your team you're going to cease being a contender until somehow you re-acquire superlative talent, IMO.
The entire thread is about everyone opinions, tbh. I actually asked peeps to put themselves in Kiwi's shoes. It's not meant to be a scientific study or anything like that, just a gathering of thoughts.
BTW, it looks like we did court Pau in the offseason, looking at the comments he made last night. Whether he ended up in Chitown because of money or something else, we'll probably never know.
I'm also on the camp that he's staying, and that the Spurs will max him out.
The Pau comments are nothing new. The Spurs' pursuit was well do ented in July. The situation he chose offered more money, a better role, and a lesser conference. We'll never know precisely what drove his decision, but the fact that it was a close call, despite all of the advantages enjoyed by Chicago, actually speaks well of the Spurs as a destination.
And sure, these threads are always about opinions, some more informed than others.
Which franchises have proven records in that regard?
Off the top of my head: Miami, Knicks, Houston, Dallas...
All mixed bags of successes and failures, with the failures outnumbering the successes.
I don't think Kawhi thinks in "Getting Glory" terms... That's you. Kawhi has a quieter personality, like Duncan, who also stayed despite having the choice to go to any city or franchise, even those with much more money to spend building teams...
We can argue this all day, but let's make it interesting: Wanna bet $100 right now that Kawhi signs with San Antonio this summer?
They've all proven they can attract such FAs. The Spurs have no such record, at the very least in recent memory.
I think Kawhi understands that he isn't going to be a franchise player, because of his limited playmaking skills. He will get the max, because the Spurs are not going to want there only promising player 5+ years down the line to go, and from what I've heard he really likes San Antonio possibly because of the small city feeling. What is going to be interesting is what is going to happen when Manu and Duncan retire. The Spurs will have the talent to be mediocre, but not be bad enough to be able to get a top 10 pick imo. I think the players that would be nice in Spurs uniform will end up resigning with there teams. I hate to say this I can see them fighting for an 8th seed for about 2-3 years. Maybe they will get lucky, and could trade some of there assets for a very good player like Houston did. I just think Spurs will blow it up when they realize they aren't good the season after Duncan and Manu retire, and possibly trade Parker and even Green if he resigns to try to get draft picks and hope that whoever the next coach will be can turn these draft picks into really good players.
Swing often enough and you'll occasionally make contact. All the failures prove that there's nothing particularly special about any of those places. Players also signed big money deals in places like Minnesota and Charlotte.
Every player is a different beast, and I'm certainly a guy that believes much more often than not, the player goes for the money (which is perfectly understandable). Maybe we've been spoiled with guys that have taken less to make sure we have a compe ive team around, which is certainly not common in this league. But I also think certain other things matter too, like talent attracting talent (recent examples in Howard going to the Rockets or Love to the Cavs, further down the line on the Spurs with Horry, McDyess, Finley, though certainly more towards the end of their careers). I don't think the Spurs will have such lure until they have that first piece, and I'm uncertain right now that Kawhi himself can be that piece.
Because he's a restricted free agent
Can't argue with notion that the Spurs' future post-Duncan is uncertain, to say the least. There are far more teams in the NBA than there are players of the sort you mention.
I'm of the opinion that they'll remain a successful organization for as long Holt owns the team and RC runs the team (I assume Pop will retire in the next few years). Whether they can be perennial contenders as they've been for almost two decades is doubtful, but that sort of success is extremely rare.
Relax, Kawhi will be a Spur next year.
I'm relaxed. I think it will more than just next year, tbh... certainly hope so...
This is a subtle goods type thread, impressive. I haven't seen this quality of the subtle goodness in a long, long time. However, taking all bs out of the OP, first just look to other teams in all scenarios:
1) What teams have cap space next year (reasonably, not by magically dumping all their players) to offer Kawhi a max contract.
o Within that subset of teams - how many have won les and/or are le contenders with Kawhi next year and longer term?
2) Assuming the pretty far-fetched idea that Kawhi takes the QO, what teams the year after have cap space (reasonably, not magically by dumping all of their players) to offer Kawhi a max contract.
o Within that subset of teams - how many have won les and/or are le contenders with Kawhi next year and longer term?
So even taking the Spurs out of the equation totally and just looking at things outside the Spurs, the answer to those questions leaves you with a pretty damn small subset of teams. You have to assume, based on the OP, that winning is a huge factor in these assumptions which narrows things down quite a bit. If it were just about money, the Spurs can pay him the most and all of the OP is moot.
Since the OP is assuming winning is incredibly important, there are very few teams with both the cap space & roster in place that have proven they can win a le in the last 15 years and/or that can seriously contend while having max money too.
Then when you look at the Spurs there are many obvious reasons as to why he would stay logically, outside of money (which the Spurs have the edge).
o Kawhi's own words - he has flat out said he would likely be a lifetime Spur. That he values playing for one team. That carries the most weight since it's the most credible known source to date.
o Kawhi's comfort level - He, from his own words and observations of others, seems to be a low-key person. SA has proven to be about as good as it gets for players with that demeanor (see: Duncan, Tim).
o Coach: He has the best coach in the NBA.
o System: He has a system he is comfortable in and growing in. We've seen in the past, learning new systems can be difficult. Many players (histrocially) seem to value stability and systems they know work for their skillset.
o Talent: Even sans Tim/Manu, the team still has very good talent and some wiggle room to add more.
o Track Record: No team in the past 15 years has a better track record of winning and sustaining than SA.
o Loyalty - this is the most overrated term in sports, but there probably is a bit of loyalty that factors in, especially when the Spurs can pay the most money too.
So, in conclusion, when you look at both external (most important) and internal (still very important) factors, the underlying premise of the OP seems highly unlikely. Possible? Yes. Likely? A resounding no.
Because he is a restricted Free agent.
Very good, thought out post. That's why you're one of the better posters here, tbh. Thanks.
I was actually thinking also on who those teams could be. OKC is probably the team that I would 'fear' the most, if not for the owner being a cheapskate. I could be wrong on this (I'm sure Mel_13 will correct me), but they could offer Kiwi the max after next season, then resign KD through bird rights also to a max deal, correct?
I should have said Kawhi will be a Spur for at least one year after Tim/Manu walk away. Kawhi has proven he is a max player in todays NBA but, despite all of the nuthugging on here, he has not proven he can be a player you can build a team around. It's entirely possible that a year of him being "the man" ends up with the Spurs trading him. Rebuilding is an unpredictable process. I'm actually looking forward to it just to see epic levels of meltdown on ST.
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