You are having things mixed up.
Your assertion is that the Lakers won games because teams slip up. This has absolutely NOTHING to do with whether I expect a team to win 30 games or not, because my expectations already factored in things like those. After watching so much basketball games, we both know that there are games that a team should easily win but didn't, and vice versa.
However, Kobe selecting easy opponents to play is another entirely different matter.
Kobe is injured before? I have serious doubts about that assertion.
ElNono predicted at the START of the season that Kobe would shut it down mid season, then claim he was injured all along. We all knew this was coming, because it's the same script for the last few years. It makes ZERO chance for the Lakers to play Kobe this season if he was injured. None. Before the "injury", it was Kobe's knees were hurting

, and now, it turned out his shoulder was hurting all along. I am shocked that someone who appears to be so intelligent otherwise can believe in this clear marketing bull.
The Lakers are a horrible team, and that's why they would win 30 games. I am predicting the Lakers to be WORSE than Utah and Orlando, and just marginally better than Philly, which is one of the worst rosters in the history of the league with a not so hidden plan of tanking year after year. I don't know what universe you live in, but a 30-win team is a pretty bad team. The Pistons won 29 games last year. Only 3 teams won less than 30 games last year in the WC last year - Utah, LAL and Kings, and only Utah was significantly off. The Lakers are bad, but PHI, Wolves are worse. I expected the Knicks to be bad, but honestly no where close to this bad. I thought they'd win about 30 games or so as well.
As for MVPau, the guy is great, look at him this year, putting up MVPau numbers again.
Moses is one of the best ever, criminally underrated. His biggest problem is that he talks like the Sasquatch, and never really marketed himself. Don't hold a grudge against him for making Kareem his pet. Hakeem did the same and I see no ill will you have against him, perhaps it was because the league broke that HOU team up for you (don't forget the Mavs too).