We all have to make, in our minds, models of reality.
We have to imagine what the universe is like, and how it works. That is just the way the human brain works, has to work.
This becomes a problem though, when your internal model of reality is inaccurate.
Take the people who don't take their kids to the doctor and medical science, because they are convinced that prayer or some sort, or magic crystals, or whathaveyou is all that's needed. Then that inaccurate model can hurt others. We can test our models of reality by using "if this, then that". "If I pray for my kid, then he will get better".
In the case of so many favored Republican policy solutions that turn out to be based on flawed models of reality, that can hurt us all.
Let's take a first, prime example of what happens when Republicans are really, truly allowed to have their favored policies. Does it work?
Ask Sam Brownback about his state's budget.
In this case, the model is "if we cut taxes, then we will always grow the economy so much that we will end up with more money in our coffers"
What happened? Forbes did a piece on it with some specifics:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/beltway/...-cant-do-math/The tax cuts in Kansas have been breathtaking. In 2012, at Brownback’s urging, the legislature cut individual tax rates by 25 percent and repealed the tax on sole proprietorships and other “pass-through” businesses. It also increased the standard deduction (though it eliminated some individual credits as well).
In 2013, the legislature cut taxes again. It passed a measure to gradually lower rates even more over five years. By 2018, the top rate, which was 6.45 percent in 2012, will fall to 3.9 percent. It also partially restored some of the credits it eliminated in 2012. This time, it did raise some offsetting revenue for the first few years but far less than the statutory tax cuts. The Center on Budget & Policy Priorities wrote up a nice summary of all the tax changes.
So what happened after all those tax cuts? Revenues collapsed.
Not only did they collapse, they are projected to get worse.
So bad, that Gov. Brownback has had to postpone some of the cuts. He just can't make his model work.
Of course, the obvious solution to make this model work, is "if government gets smaller, then growth will follow". So cuts to education, transportation, and health care are proposed:
http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/...ose-budget-gapKansas Gov. Sam Brownback says he will cut funding for public schools and universities in a bid to keep the state solvent through June after aggressive tax cuts left gaping budget shortfalls.
Kansas public schools will lose 1.5 percent across the board, while the state's regents universities will see budgets trimmed by 2 percent. The estimated savings of $44.5 million would be used to help prop up the state's finances. The move, combined by a budget-balancing bill approved by the GOP-controlled legislature, would fall just short of eliminating a $344 million deficit. Even so, a $600 million shortfall is projected for the next fiscal year, which begins July 1.
"The dramatic increase in state education funding that has occurred over the last four years is unsustainable," Brownback said in a statement released Thursday. "School districts are estimated to have approximately $381 million in reserve fund balances to help them offset the smaller than expected increase in state funding. The Kansas Department of Education should work with school districts to help them with any cash flow challenges that may arise."
"Just wait" we are told, "the growth will come" and solve everything. "Let's use our rainy day funds to hold on until the growth happens".
Except that isn't what is going to happen even in the best case scenario. Kansas' population is growing. You can't shrink your education budget, and grow your population indefinitely, without some profound impacts.
As noted the projected shortfall is almost $600M in the next year.
Politicians and party faithful might deny reality, but reality will intercede:
S&P downgrades Kansas bond rating
http://www.kansas.com/news/article1158214.html
Read more here: http://www.kansas.com/news/article11...#storylink=cpyStandard & Poor’s lowered Kansas’ bond rating to AA from AA+, citing the state’s unbalanced budget caused by income tax cuts signed into law in 2012.
"The downgrades reflect our view of a structurally unbalanced budget, following state income tax cuts that have not been matched with offsetting ongoing expenditure cuts in the fiscal 2015 budget," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst David Hitch in a release.
S & P also downgraded the state’s appropriation-secured debt to AA- from AA.
The rating agency gave the state a “negative” outlook on both ratings and projects that the state will face serious budget woes by the end of fiscal year 2015.
"The negative outlook reflects our belief that there will be additional budget pressure as income tax cuts scheduled in future years go into effect, or if midyear revenue shortfalls resume,” Hitch said
The problem is that the rank and file aren't being told about this problem.
You won't find it on Fox "news". The negative feedback isn't getting into the information bubble.
Search for "kansas budget" on Fox news. I'll wait.
http://www.foxnews.com/search-result...t=Search&ss=fn
I wonder if the GOP will moderate their views on this idea, and maybe adjust it somewhat based on the data and feedback they are getting out of the laboratory that Kansas voters gave them.
Somehow I doubt it.
In Kansas, Brownback tried a red-state ‘experiment.’ Now he may be paying a political price
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/in-kansas-gov-brownbacks-reelection-race-is-case-study-in-republican-party-shift/2014/07/30/3192d86c-1420-11e4-8936-26932bcfd6ed_story.html
Kock Bros pumped enough $Ms into to KS to get yet another of their Kockenstein monsters re-elected.
another one
Oklahoma faces 8.3 percent revenue shortfall as energy sector slumps
Critics charge Fallin has advanced a series of tax cuts while not doing enough to fix state agencies for education and public health they say are severely underfunded and rank near the bottom nationally in several categories.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/17/usa-oklahoma-budget-idUSKBN0LL25D20150217?feedType=RSS&feedName=domest icNews
Liberal States Outperform Conservative Ones as Republicans Push More Trickle Down
Despite overwhelming empirical data proving that the Kansas and Bush economic agenda is the quickest path to decimate an economy and kill jobs, House Republicans passed Paul Ryan’s Path to Prosperity (for the wealthy elite) budget that makes Brownback’s budget disaster look tame in comparison.
In fact, Ryan’s budget is far worse for the economy, jobs, and debt and deficit than anything Bush or Brownback could possible impose and yet Republicans claim it is a job-creation, economy-growing, poverty halting, and deficit reducing bonanza despite projections it will increase the deficit and bring economic growth to a screeching halt.
Still, Republicans could not help themselves from recently passing two permanent and unfunded tax cuts for the rich and corporations that add to the deficit and create no jobs.
Republicans are not experimenting any longer because they know precisely what their “pro-business” tax cutting agenda will produce; more wealth for the one percent, higher debt and deficit, and annual budget shortfalls for the nation’s economy.
http://www.politicususa.com/2014/05/...-finds-al.html
god/guns/gays/abortion/immigrants get Repugs elected, then they their ignorant, "faith-based" voters.
Yet he still won.
http://www.politico.com/2014-electio.../#.VOTpk_nF8-o
Really wonder if there are enough moderates left in the GOP to actually fight the dumbest of the GOP policy failures. I hope so.
Okies pray to St Ronnie the Diseased, patron saint of laffer curves and trickle-down voodoo economics
Reagan Speeches Are Required Reading in Oklahoma Bill to Replace AP U.S. History
http://www.alternet.org/education/reagan-speeches-are-required-reading-oklahoma-bill-replace-ap-us-history?akid=12808.187590.1oTfAf&rd=1&src=newslett er1032093&t=17
holy , red states embarrassing, outdoing The Onion
So what happened to California?
You really won me over when you compared Republicans to anti-vaxers.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California
Didn't go anywhere as far as I know.
Respectfully:
If you want to make a point, you might want to flesh it out a bit.
Better yet, I would point out that the mechanisms for faulty reasoning are not entirely dissimilar. Faulty reasoning is faulty reasoning, whether it is ineffective and harmful tax policy, or "vaccines cause autism".
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...e-conclusions/Your Brain Is Primed To Reach False Conclusions
I will not only stand by it, I will double down, and provide the evidence to support the analogy.
If you weren't so damned lazy, you might be able to find your way out of the inaccurate beliefs you hold.
Doesn't it bother you that you can't take personal responsibility for your bad thinking and improve your critical thinking skills?
I think you know what I'm talking about.
http://cacs.org/research/unsustainab...-wall-of-debt/
What in the name of reason does that have to do with supply side economics being a quantifiable policy failure?
It means that the liberal ideas are at least as stupid.
I think it should be noted that, unlike the Federal government, states cannot create their own money. As such, they do closely resemble a household economy (one with a rich uncle).
So you concede supply side economics is a policy failure and your response is a red herring. Nice debating skills.
Are you suggesting supply side economics works at the national level because the federal government can create its own money?
Supply-side economics do work *IF* you have established that there's a high barrier to entry to providing goods and services. It isn't just centered on taxation, but any and all barriers. It's a solution to a well established problem. High taxation can be a barrier, but in order to establish that, you would have to look at the Laffer curve or similar (the Laffer curve is actually pretty basic, but you can get a ballpark idea). What you see in the OP is a typical case of irresponsible lack of research in economic policy. If you have not established what your problem is, just slashing taxes for the sake of it is just irresponsible and does not address whatever the actual problem is.
This is doubly stupid for States (which is what I was pointing out). The Federal government controls the money supply, and thus inflation. It has an intrinsic handle on deficits. States have no such ability. They rely strictly on income, expenses and debt.
How is Texas doing?
Confused. Low barriers to providing goods to the market is a fundamental principle of supply side, no?
"high barrier to entry to providing goods and services."
examples of in an industrial economy?
Supply side is based on the principle that consumers benefit when many people can provide goods and services. Someone is going to have to explain this high barrier to entry augment.
he's saying you should resort to supply side economics in cases where you have established that the barrier is too high. if you have not established that the barrier is too high, then cutting taxes isn't helping anybody (except the folks making money)
Supply side isn't possible, and never will be, in USA in many major sectors where untouchable cartels, oligarchies, monopolies dominate.
So s-s is economic theoretical bull . And the Repugs, conservatives who push s-s know it.
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