A lot of people trying to pinpoint what is wrong with the Spurs this season, and a lot of finger-pointing. There are a few simple stats (below) that show the root problem pretty clearly. Almost every player on the team is failing to get to the rim as often as last season. Worse, when they do get to the rim, they are shooting much lower percentages. Bottom line - the Spurs are getting crushed in the middle.
There are a lot of stats below. But the biggest, IMO, is that Duncan is now assisted on almost 75% of his FG's made vs. just over 50% for his career. Even when Duncan scores inside, he's not dominating the middle or providing the inside-out game he once did - he is now largely the recipient of someone else's work. Add to that the fact that Duncan's mid-range percentage has dropped from over 40% to under 33%, which means that defenders are able to sag off that shot and wait for him. That absence of inside dominance is the biggest reason the other players aren't reaching the rim as much, and are meeting a lot more resistance when they do get there.
The stats don't lie - look for yourself. The Spurs whole team is taking fewer shots from 0-3 feet, and making a lower percentage of the ones they do take.
Tim Duncan
Over his career, 54.1% of Duncan's FG makes have been assisted - meaning he has created almost half of his own shots through the years. That number has been steadily increasing for about the past six seasons. This year, the number is all the way up to 73.7%. Basically, three out of every four of his made FG's are assisted now.
For his career, Duncan has averaged 40.3% shooting from 10-16 feet. This year he is only shooting 32.7% from that range. That mid-range shot isn't working for him, and the defenders aren't respecting it - which allows them to sag to the basket, and clog the middle.
Duncan is no longer anchoring the middle. He is stepping into the middle and taking passes. But he's not creating his own shots near the rim, and that means that he isn't providing the inside-out game that he used to. He's not pulling defenders to him like he did, and those guys are sagging to the middle and blowing up the Spurs' paint game.
Tony Parker
This season, only 25.3% of Tony Parker's FG attempts are coming from 0-3 feet. Over his career, 35.6% of his attempts have been from 0-3 feet. In other words, he is getting to the rack almost 1/3 less than his career average. On top of that, his FG% from 0-3 feet is 60.3%, compared to 65.2% over his career.
Compared to previous seasons, Parker can't get to the rim. And when he does, he is not nearly as consistent about finishing. Some of that is on him, but some is because opposing defenses are able to collapse on him more.
Manu Ginobili
Most of Manu's stats look very much like his career averages. Some are down, but for the most part not drastically. But Manu's early stats skew the numbers. Some big diffrerences stand out when you compare Manu this year, to Manu from the past several years. For instance:
Manu's FG% from 0-3 feet is 58.8% this season. In the previous three seasons he shot 77.8%, 65.1%, and 71.7% from 0-3 feet. He's getting to the rim just as often as he ever has (29.8% this year, compared to 29.7% career). But when he gets to the rim this season, he is finishing MUCH less often than he used to.
The other big statistical clue to Manu's play this season is that 46.5% of his made FG's have been assisted, compared to 38.6% for his career. In short, Manu isn't creating his own shot like he used to. Actually, he's probably creating his own shot just about as often - he just isn't making those unassisted shots as much. In order to score, Manu needs help now.
Kawhi Leonard
Like the rest of the team, Kawhi isn't getting to the rim nearly as much. Last season, Kawhi took 30.4% of his shots from 0-3 feet. This season he is taking just 21.1% from up close. Last season, Kawhi made 50.5% of his shots from 3-10 feet. This year he is making 41.5% from short-mid range.
The theme for this year's Spurs is that they aren't getting shots at the basket, and they are missing more of the ones they do get. Kawhi is no exception.
Danny Green
Danny' Green's numbers, for the most part, look very similar to last season. The biggest difference is that he is shooting almost 18% of his shots from 0-3 feet, compared to 12.5% last season. But his FG% on those shots is just 57.8%, compared to 69.8% last season.
Danny is getting to the rack more often, but finishing a LOT less consistently.
Marco Belinelli
Once again, Belinelli isn't getting to the rim as often as last season - 14.5% of his shots coming from 0-3 feet, compared to 17.8% last season. But the big thing is that his FG% from 0-3 feet has dropped from 73.4% to 60.7%.
Just like the rest of the team, Belinelli isn't finishing when he does get to the rim.
Boris Diaw
Boris Diaw is shooting 28.8% of his shots from the 3P line this season, compared to 19.3% last season. But he's shooting 30.8% from the arc, compared to 40.2% this year. Enough said. Boris is spending a lot more time shooting from outside, and making a lot less of them. He's not even challenging the middle. But I'm sure it's not because he doesn't want to.
Tiago Splitter
I didn't include Tiago, because he spent so much of the season injured. His numbers from 10 feet in are actually pretty favorable.
You can analyze everything that happens elsewhere on the floor, but the Spurs are losing these games in the paint. Duncan is still getting numbers, but he's not doing it the same way. His points in the paint are largely the result of other players' assists. And he can't draw defenders to him when his mid-range shot isn't there. As a result, the paint is clogged much of the time, and the other players are being forced to shoot longer shots, or run into a crowd around the rim.
If Tim could revive his mid-range bank shot, and Tony could re-discover his floater, it would force some defense to meet them farther out on the floor. That would open the paint up a little, and probably improve the above numbers some. But nothing subs utes for a dominant post game.
TD's game is more of an adjustment. He has reasons to believe that Spurs would do better with him taking easier shots created by others..He's willing to do it too.
Credit to Tim for willingly taking a backseat and still competing.
Some players just sulk and start playing bad when their role changes..Tim doesn't.
I was going to say the same thing. He is not going to be there all the time. He is helping the team transition.
Good post.
None of that is much different than last year's playoffs, tbh..
Duncan in last year's playoffs: 71% assisted, 36% shooting from 10-16; He's creating roughly the same amount, but ya, jump shot continues to decline
Parker's attempts from 0-3 feet in last year's playoffs: 26% compared to 25% this year, 62% efficiency; Slightly worse efficiency, not significant
Manu's FG% from 0-3 feet in last year's playoffs: 60%; Slightly worse, but ya, he's not creating as well, as you said
Kawhi in the playoffs: 23% of his shots were from 0-3 feet
Diaw in the playoffs: 28% of his shots were 3s; Same as this year
I think this team realized a while ago that "you move the ball or you die", and last year playoffs' drove the point home. When this team is engaged and moving the ball side to side, they're really good. I think Tim realized a long time ago his post game is not as effective as it used to be. He naturally moved to the jumper a couple seasons ago, and now he's just a part of the passing game.
The two guys that get to the rack consistently for this team always have been Tony and Manu. Tony was hobbled until about two weeks ago, but he seems to have regained his speed, so I expect him to attack the basket more going forward. Manu, more or less always drives, with mixed results. He's obviously past his athletic prime, so you won't see big finishes at the rim, but he can get there. Cojo and Kawhi are more of a mixed bag. Cojo hasn't played much anymore, and Kawhi it's hit or miss, something he settles and sometimes he drives. His footwork is still awkward, but his jumper has improved.
The real question, IMO, is how much of this is 'holding back' and how much is real decline. Driving, creating contact, etc is all wear and tear, so it makes sense they would scale it back a bit. But we'll find out in just a few weeks.
EThis right here. I'm convinced its more decline than holding back. The ability to bring it every night just isn't there anymore.
Why is Duncan's jump shot gone?
Players jumpers are supposed to get better as they get older.
Great posts gentlemen. All decline is part physical and part mental. The bodies of the Big 3 are worn out, and the mental edge is simply less because of last year's championship fulfillment.
With Parker, I think he is at that stage where his body is not responding the way he has been used to. So he is mentally struggling with the real physical decline. Hence his high level of inconsistency game to game, even with most of his speed back. Manu adjusted over the 2009-2010 seasons, and I am hopeful TP can learn to deal with his physical limitations.
In the meantime the Spurs do need to figure out some consistent offense. I love Kawhi and hope he can be that guy. Some posters on here, who remain nameless, think the Spurs can go hyper-Euroball every single night. Sorry but that is just not realistic. Ball movement is realistic, but if there are no horses, one missing piece and the chain can fail. In the regular season grind, you just need some consistent horses. Also, the Spurs' version of hyper-Euroball is particularly effective because if teams scheme for it, then they always had great iso-players to beat you off the dribble (see Game 7 Mavs last year), and punish you for playing only for the pass, catch and shoot.
If SA can get home court in at least the first round, I think they have a decent shot to recreate their system at a high level for 20 or so games in the playoffs, because there will be more mental edge and focus from them, and it is a shorter period of time to push their bodies. But the odds will be against them and injury risk is real. In the regular season, these old guys need to pace themselves.
You can add patty to the mix......The dude was automatic in hitting 3's last yr.......This yr not so much....ever since the surgery he hasn't been the same...
I think his left knee is shot. He really hesitates to put pressure on it. Sean even noticed during a game last week that Timmy was essentially shooting his FTs on one leg. Tbh, it's incredible that he's had this level of production given his physical limitations.
Those issues were covered by the stellar play of Tiago, Patty, and Diaw. Those three guys have been considerably worse this year. And Timmy could still get his in post ups in the playoffs last year. This year his post ups, with the exception of December, have been awful.
All of this is a series of symptoms, not a root cause. The root cause is that the team is complacent to take outside shots and not attack the rim.
Tim is old. Don't be surprised to see him in uniform again next year. Everyone seems to think Tim will just ride off into the sunset when his game has declined enough, but the Spurs are a business and Tim is their main product. They will continue to pay him if he continues to play.
It's not about what the Spurs have done throughout their careers, only what they were doing in championship years. The big 3 weren't so hot last season, it was the bench that pulled them out time and again. This year, not so much. I realize that's an eyeball test but I've said as much just recently.
Cuz Tony Parker is old.
It's a lot simpler than all of this tbh...the biggest difference: we're not hitting 3s nearly as well as we did last year.
Last year in the regular season: 39.7% from deep as a team
Last year in the playoffs: 41.1% from deep
This year: 36.3% from 3
Mills last year: 42.5% from 3
Mills last postseason: 40.5%
Mills this year: 34.5%
Diaw last year: 40.2%
Diaw last postseason: 40%
Diaw this year: 30.3%
Kawhi last year: 37.9%
Kawhi last postseason: 41.9%
Kawhi this year: 32.9%
Belinelli last year: 43%
Belinelli last postseason: 42.1%
Belinelli this year: 38%
We're still getting tons of open looks tbh...guys just haven't been hitting them. We don't necessarily need to shoot as well as we did last year in the playoffs (that was a once-in-a-lifetime performance), but we can't continue to have so many guys struggling from deep.
hasn't this quit spurstalk like 6 times already
Splitter cant rebound. what are offensive rebounding stats for opponents?
Our guys are also not taking the open three as much; they are getting run off the line and shooting from one step inside instead of just catch and shoot.
This may be caused by a lack of confidence because they haven't been shooting well.
Another issue is Pop expects Manu to still be a huge part of the bench and to help carry the bench when we know he can't anymore. I wish he would stop expecting much out of Manu.
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