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Would a sign and trade with Portland giving them Diaw or Splitter + a pick and/or Mills, allow us to get LA without renouncing Tim/Manu/Danny? No way Tim and Manu sign for the minimum.
Nice break down by the way. Thanks!
I've been looking for a good break down of the Spurs cap space and I found some interesting articles about it:
http://www.poundingtherock.com/2015/...822.1429195878
http://www.grizzlybearblues.com/2015...inobili-parker
Both articles explore the feasibility of the Spurs signing a max player (Aldridge in the first one, Gasol in the second). I'll summarize it for you guys.
- The Spurs may seem to have a lot of cap space but due to cap holds, the Spurs really only have $11 million in free space even AFTER giving Duncan and Ginobili minimum contracts and renouncing everyone else.
- Grabbing a max contract player then requires pawning off Splitter or renouncing Green's rights. Keep in mind this is in addition to giving Duncan and Ginobili minimum contracts to get rid of their cap holds.
- I doubt the Spurs offer Duncan and Ginobili the minimum so they'll pretty much either earn more or retire. If they retire, the Spurs will essentially be trading Duncan, Ginobili, Splitter/Green, and most of the bench for a max player like Aldridge. The Spurs will get the MLE though but they will most likely push over the luxury tax unless everyone else is on minimum contracts.
- If the Spurs sign Green and Leonard to long term contracts and give out one year deals to Duncan and Ginobili, the Spurs can keep the team, maybe add a MLE player and have a projected $20-$25 million (depending on how much MLE they use) in cap space in 2016.
Best case scenario, the Spurs will get a lineup of: Duncan (re-signed with MLE?), Aldridge, Leonard, Green, Parker with a bench of Mills, Anderson, Diaw, + 1st round pick, min contract players (one of whom will probably be Bonner). Is that championship worthy? I don't think so, especially with such a hit to the bench. If Ginobili is willing to play for the minimum (he's only plays for 15 minutes a game anyways), it starts to look like a decent roster. Duncan and Ginobili would be taking severe paycuts though. I'm not sure how likely this is since I think the Spurs will offer Duncan $8-$9 million and Ginobili at least $4 million.
Second scenario, maybe Aldridge mimics the Heat big 3 and takes less. But I don't see how Aldridge's sacrifice of $2-3 million will do much to help the Spurs. It will still wipe out most of the bench.
Third Scenario, Spurs bring back Duncan, Ginobili, Green and most of the bench with the exception of the dead weights in one year contracts. The Spurs use the MLE to upgrade the back up PG/PF. They'll keep their lineup of: Duncan, Splitter, Leonard, Green, Parker with Ginobili, MLE PG/PF, Diaw, Mills, Beli?, Baynes?, Anderson, probably Bonner off the bench. They make one final run and wait until next year to sign a max player. I think this is the most likely scenario given the Spurs history of keeping everything the same and striking out on big FAs.
Would a sign and trade with Portland giving them Diaw or Splitter + a pick and/or Mills, allow us to get LA without renouncing Tim/Manu/Danny? No way Tim and Manu sign for the minimum.
Nice break down by the way. Thanks!
sign and trade green to Portland
green gets his 12 million a year and spurs keep splitter and get alridge
I'm not too sure about any sign and trade scenarios. Can the Spurs take on extra salary (they do have some free cap space to work with) through a trade and then sign their players to over the limit? Splitter is only making $8.5 million whereas Aldridge will make $18-19 million. So Spurs either have to match or have the cap space to take on the extra $10 million salary right?Would a sign and trade with Portland giving them Diaw or Splitter + a pick and/or Mills, allow us to get LA without renouncing Tim/Manu/Danny? No way Tim and Manu sign for the minimum.
Nice break down by the way. Thanks!
Also, I think the Spurs only need to get rid of either Splitter or Green, not both.
Edit: So I did some extra calculations. Let's say the Spurs keep Leonard and Green's cap hold where it is at $7 million each (low cap hold, no need to re-sign yet), re-sign Duncan and Ginobili at $9 million and $5 million each (to reduce their cap holds), and renounce everyone else. The Spurs will be at $63 million, leaving only about $4 million of free cap space. So won't the Spurs have to find more filler with Tiago to do a sign and trade? If the Spurs have to give up Splitter + Mills + possible picks, I think that's too high of a price to pay. Spurs are going to already lose Beli, CJ, and Baynes in this scenario. They will be essentially trading Splitter + the entire bench for Aldridge.
Last edited by 024; 05-21-2015 at 01:16 PM.
Splitter, Green or Diaw (or Parker but not opening that can of worms) must almost certainly be moved to get to max money. Could be done creatively with Mills / Anderson / getting rid of first round pick for two seconds or something to get you close and replacing those roster spots with $500k cap holds. Splitter is the obvious choice given there are literally no wings on the roster after Kawhi. Anderson isn't a wing, more like he ate too many wings and all the weight went to his head.
The analysis is wrong. If we bring back Duncan and Manu for the minimum (although one would get the Room Exception at $2.5m) and renounce everyone else, we'd have around $15m to spend. Dump Mills and we get just about to the $18m we need for Aldridge max.
The PtR article doesn't account for the fact that we'd be bringing them back with the Minimum Exception and not using cap space. I think they'll want more but if they'd accept the minimum then that's how we'd do it.
Last edited by Richie; 05-21-2015 at 01:24 PM.
Scenario 3 is probably the best route. It provides the best overall roster and upgrade potential in subsequent years.
sign a 4 year deal with alridge with player option after 2 years cap up then sign him max to 5 year deal then
Pretty sure options can only be on the last year of the deal, so it'd have to be a 3 year deal with 3rd year option. Not implausible he goes that route with whatever team he signs with to maximise his money.
However we won't have his Bird Rights after 2 years so no 5 year max.
I agree. Way too expensive.
Again, nice job on the research.
This is probably heresy, but the Spurs went over the cap and paid the luxury tax once in the past if I remember. In any event, couldn't the Spurs do that if they wanted to do what some of the big boys in big markets do.
Not likely, but possible?
Thats a good question, if Spurs pass the cap by just 5 mil is that going to ruin Holt and associates financially speaking?
Its not gonna ruin them and we are not repeaters (no pun intended) so Holt could do it, thing is maybe he doesnt want to pay the NBA to help them with their Lebron and Harden ads.
I agree, but good news is there are ways to both avoid tax and do all the things they may want to do.
What way is that, can you do a break down?
I think expecting both Duncan and Ginobili to take the minimum is pretty unrealistic. Ginobili I don't think is worth too much with his coin flip passes and the fact that he is only good for 15 minutes per game. But he's still worth around $5 million. Duncan just made all defensive 2nd team and all NBA 3rd team.... he's going to get $8-$9 million. I don't think the FO will insult him with anything less. Duncan will still be taking a pay cut too. To expect him to take a deeper cut would be greedy.
It's kind of hard, but it's just about salaries for guys like Tim, any trades and what role players they sign. The LT is estimated to be at 81M.
So in an example like this: Spurs pursue cap space route. Spurs trade Boris & Patty away to get the cap space for LA.
TP: 13.5M
Tim: 5M (assumption - maybe not likely, but seems like a potential starter for speculation)
Tiago: 8.5M
LA: 18M (going to get max)
Kawhi: 17M (going to get max)
Green: 12M (assumption)
Kyle: 1.1M
1st Rd Pick: 1M
That is roughly 76M for 8 players. That gives the Spurs 5M before they hit the LT and that is with Max for LA (pretty much guaranteed), max for Kawhi (pretty much guaranteed) & what seems to be the high end for Green (pretty much a given he will be in that 10-12M range IMO).
Use min contracts to fill out the rest of the roster and you can avoid LT while keeping Tim/Tiago/Danny/Kawhi and adding LA.
Avoiding the LT will be close, but it can be done, even if everyone gets the high end. It all really hinges on Duncan though and that's the biggest question to answer (same with Manu).
Then you have the over the cap route. Currently, (assuming you aren't brining back Cory, Baynes, Ayres, etc..) with the cap holds for Danny/Kawhi counted, if you traded for LA instead of using cap space (like Chinook said, maybe Boris/Patty/1st) you would be sitting at roughly 55M in salaries before Green/Kawhi's actual salaries go up & before Tim resigns.
That 55M is including about 7M for DG & 7M for Kawhi. So let's assume they get the same salaries as in the cap space example above, that 55M goes to 70M. Let's say Tim get's the same 5M - that has the Spurs at 75M in total salary.
It would require Tim taking a contract like that amount and that would be the only person taking a discount (which in the real world it doesn't have to be Tim, the total pool of money discounted just has to be the same).
If the Spurs want to really build out the roster though, even if Tim takes a big discount like 5M, they would likely pay taxes.
Last edited by DPG21920; 05-21-2015 at 07:18 PM.
There's such a thing as partially guaranteed seasons (something the Spurs have utilized with McDyess, Bonner and Diaw), which is essentially a loophole or cir vention of the cap. In other words, say they can only technically afford to give Duncan $5M, they could give him the same for the following season, with say $2.5M guaranteed. They could also agree in principal to give him a minute ownership stake when he retires.
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18.2 Million to be exact, assuming the Spurs don't bring over their 1st rounder. In theory Aldridge could sign a 1 year deal for the remaining cap space and then we could max him out the following year. He'd make something like $106 million in that scenario.
I may be mistaken, but The Spurs would have to trade both Splitter and Diaw if Aldridge wants a sign and trade because of Splitter/Diaw + Mills contracts would be able to make the trade valid.
In that case the Spurs would still have the MLE,and Bi Annual Exception + Cap holds to Cojo, Duncan, Manu and Baynes. In theory they could bring all of them back plus Green and Leonard.
Golden Parachute. Definitely and option with the cap jumping so much next season.
Great thread, OP, and a much-needed one.
A lot of posters in this forum have been bandying around impossible roster move scenarios without sufficient knowledge of the cap rules and implications, so hopefully this thread will clear up any lingering confusion.
IIRC, partially guaranteed contracts count fully against the cap (as if they were guaranteed). The difference is that the team can simply opt to waive the player when the deadline comes to fully guarantee the contract, and then at that point the entire salary comes off the books. So there's really no loophole there.
I second that. Best thread in weeks!Great thread, OP, and a much-needed one.
A lot of posters in this forum have been bandying around impossible roster move scenarios without sufficient knowledge of the cap rules and implications, so hopefully this thread will clear up any lingering confusion.
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