What do you see housing prices doing?

[CosmicCowboy]

Housing prices (and taxes) are going up like crazy here in SA...I just got a flyer on a new listing in a subdivision next to my house...these are 60's era houses a little less than 3000 feet...asking price is $280,000. wow. It's a nice well maintained neighborhood with low turnover but still seems really high. I personally don't think this is going to last. Texas may be an exception but on a national basis I see housing prices falling drastically as baby boomers homes become available through death or downsizing to managed care and glut the market. There simply aren't enough credit worthy individuals following this generation to absorb all this housing at these inflated prices. I am personally not counting on cashing out the current "value" of my home as part of my retirement planning.

[boutons_deux]

"There simply aren't enough credit worthy individuals following this generation"

For the last 20 years, that generation has been screwed out of higher education, or is leaving school with poor job prospects and avg $30K in college loan debt, killing any hope of landing a mortgage.

btw, the Bexar County Tax people blame their huge increase in property taxes on Repugs in Austin, who wrote a law that FORCES property taxes up. Thanks, Repugs!

on zillow, what are the appraisal values for houses near the one you cite?

[Blake]

Lol op being subtle

[CosmicCowboy]

Lol op being subtle

It was a serious question. That $280,000 50 year old house is a two story 4 bedroom and 2 bath. Nothing particularly special. A house note at current CHEAP interest rates would be $2500 a month on a 30 year note. Those low interest rates are already in jeopardy of going up. To qualify for a $2500 house payment with good credit would require an annual income of $100,000. There just aren't enough qualified buyers coming up to suck up all these houses that are about to become available.

[Blake]

I know what you mean. I'm not sure how my butler can afford a house on his $60k salary

[vy65]

Housing prices (and taxes) are going up like crazy here in SA...I just got a flyer on a new listing in a subdivision next to my house...these are 60's era houses a little less than 3000 feet...asking price is $280,000. wow. It's a nice well maintained neighborhood with low turnover but still seems really high. I personally don't think this is going to last. Texas may be an exception but on a national basis I see housing prices falling drastically as baby boomers homes become available through death or downsizing to managed care and glut the market. There simply aren't enough credit worthy individuals following this generation to absorb all this housing at these inflated prices. I am personally not counting on cashing out the current "value" of my home as part of my retirement planning.

It'll always be a function of location: there are neighborhoods in Houston where the same type of house has a list price around $600,000.

While the baby-boomers are (rightfully) dying off, the economic/population explosion in Texas will likely result in demand outpacing inventory for the foreseeable future.

[pgardn]

It was a serious question. That $280,000 50 year old house is a two story 4 bedroom and 2 bath. Nothing particularly special. A house note at current CHEAP interest rates would be $2500 a month on a 30 year note. Those low interest rates are already in jeopardy of going up. To qualify for a $2500 house payment with good credit would require an annual income of $100,000. There just aren't enough qualified buyers coming up to suck up all these houses that are about to become available.

Alamo Heights in SA has gone thru numerous cycles without serious degradation in value.
Location.

[Spurminator]

I don't know how long it will last, but we're about to flip our house for a 40% increase after three years, and we haven't done anything to it. Of course we'll have to use that as a down payment on our next house which will probably crash in value, but better that one than the current one.

[TheSanityAnnex]

I don't know how long it will last, but we're about to flip our house for a 40% increase after three years, and we haven't done anything to it. Of course we'll have to use that as a down payment on our next house which will probably crash in value, but better that one than the current one.

Kinda in the same boat as you out here in San Diego. Bought a bank owned house with my brother about 5 years ago for 320,000---bought him out of it for 50,000 a few months ago and he bought his own. Just checked Zillow and they estimate it at 478,000 and that isn't including the remodel I did 6 months ago(tile floors throughout, fully remodeled kitchen, interior/exterior paint, baseboards/moldings, 90% waterless front/backyard) so I'm guessing at least another 50,000-70,000 from that. It hasn't stopped gaining value since I got it and I'm thinking it's about to peak. Last bubble it peaked at 700,000 so I'm torn about selling now and buying another to fix up or sitting put. North San Diego market has been one of the strongest around.

Any prudent spurstalk advice?

[ElNono]

$280K sounds cheap compared to these here places...

[Sportcamper]

Burbank CA…Nice city to live in…They have their own police and fire departments…Low crime, eateries open 24/7…Lots of old money & Motion Picture revenue…In 2009 a 70 to 80 year old home, 2 bed 1 & ½ bath 1000 square feet would sell in the middle 400,000’s…Now they are going for 700,000 to 800,000 and even above…Many sales are for cash, many sales are made by companies that refurbish & rent…Total insanity IMO…With so many high paying jobs leaving the state and Baby Boomers cashing in & moving on to empty nester homes and retirement communities I don’t see this ending well for So Cal home owners…

States like Texas, Idaho, Colorado etc will fare far better as folks From LA retire and continue to invade your finest neighborhoods…San Antonio is going to need some In & Out’s, Trader Joe's, Star Bucs and Sushi Bars...

[Th'Pusher]

It was a serious question. That $280,000 50 year old house is a two story 4 bedroom and 2 bath. Nothing particularly special. A house note at current CHEAP interest rates would be $2500 a month on a 30 year note. Those low interest rates are already in jeopardy of going up. To qualify for a $2500 house payment with good credit would require an annual income of $100,000. There just aren't enough qualified buyers coming up to suck up all these houses that are about to become available.

$2500 per month for a $280k 30 year note? You're kidding. That's at most $1500 and that's with all taxes and insurance.

[TheSanityAnnex]

$2500 per month for a $280k 30 year note? You're kidding. That's at most $1500 and that's with all taxes and insurance.

Yeah that isn't adding up. I'm at 2,100 right now.

[Th'Pusher]

And $93 a square foot seems cheap to me

[CosmicCowboy]

$2500 per month for a $280k 30 year note? You're kidding. That's at most $1500 and that's with all taxes and insurance.

you are totally full of as usual. You could get it to $1500 with enough down but not even close with minimum down.

[boutons_deux]

Monthly Payment $1,628.43


http://www.mortgagecalculator.org/

[CosmicCowboy]

Monthly Payment $1,628.43


http://www.mortgagecalculator.org/

now add taxes and insurance boo unless you put 20%+ down.

[Twisted_Dawg]

I don't know how long it will last, but we're about to flip our house for a 40% increase after three years, and we haven't done anything to it. Of course we'll have to use that as a down payment on our next house which will probably crash in value, but better that one than the current one.

What part of town are you located?

[Spurminator]

What part of town are you located?

I'm on the north side of Garland.

[Th'Pusher]

now add taxes and insurance boo unless you put 20%+ down.

That includes taxes and PMI. You're full of dude

[TheSanityAnnex]

alright guys enough ting on cowboy, anyone got any advice for me? First home I've bought so I'm new to this.

[CosmicCowboy]

That includes taxes and PMI. You're full of dude

wrong again

[CosmicCowboy]

That includes taxes and PMI. You're full of dude

Dumbass. Taxes, Homeowners Insurance and Mortgage Insurance would be about $1100 a month by themselves without any principal and interest. SA was closer at $2200. I just guessed about $2500 initially. Real number looks like about $2370. Didn't realize the peanut gallery wold get their panties in such a wad.

I financed about $140,000 on the house I bought for my daughter a couple of years ago at 3.25%. Interest rates are up since then but here is a detailed breakdown on the note. take that and multiply X2 for $280,000 in case you are even worse at math than you appear.

PRINCIPAL & INTEREST $640.98
ESCROW
Property Tax $330.69
Homeowner's Insurance $66.33
Mortgage Insurance Footnote 1 $143.18
Total Taxes & Insurance $540.20
Escrow Balance Surplus/Shortage More info about this, opens overlay $4.55
TOTAL ESCROW PAYMENT Footnote 3 $544.75
TOTAL MONTHLY PAYMENT Footnote 2 $1,185.73

[CosmicCowboy]

alright guys enough ting on cowboy, anyone got any advice for me? First home I've bought so I'm new to this.

At your age/position I like your plan to cash out and flip the profit into a new fixer upper. That San Diego market still has some legs left.

[CavsSuperFan]

San Diego is a phenomenal market... If you plan on staying in S.D. you should be fine…My thinking is that a house is a place to live not to just flip for profit…