http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/#tim-duncan
Pretty cool, they also compare players to their most similar counterparts(and the strength of the similarities are graded, as well)..
For the Spurs(by Wins Above Replacement):
#1: Kawhi Leonard- 10.7, MVP Candidate
#2: Danny Green- 6.6, Borderline All-Star
#3: Tim Duncan- 5.1, Borderline All-Star
#4- Lamarcus Aldridge- 4.5, Good Starter
#5- David West- 2.8, Key Role Player
#6- Patty Mills- 2.2, Key Role Player
#7- Manu Ginobili- 2.1, Key Role Player
#8- Boris Diaw- 1.4, Rotation Player
#9- Kyle Anderson- 0.6, Rotation Player
#10- Tony Parker- 0.3, Offensive Specialist
#11- Matt Bonner- 0.2, Way Past His Prime
#12- Ray McCallum- -0.1, Project
#13- Jimmer Fredette- -0.3, Scrub
#14- Rasual Butler- -0.5, Way Past His Prime
I hope we don't have Danny as our second best player. I love him, but he's not an overall playmaker, or versatile scorer and is inconsistent as all shooters are bound to be from game to game. I'd prefer if LMA emerged as our 2nd or 3rd best player, if you have Timmy as the 2nd best. Then after those 3 I would have Danny. For our sakes, I hope LMA is better than just a good starter. I also don't see Danny as a borderline all-star. But ok, interesting.
Ex-Spurs:
Splitter- 3.4, Key Role Player
Beli- 0.2, Offensive Specialist
Cojo- 2, Rotation Player
It's not necessarily accurate in ranking the "best" players on the team, but rather importance of role..
Danny green is absolutely a statistical all star, the problem is his skill limits.. He's probably the third or fourth best spur depending on Duncan, if he could only dribble the ball he'd be a max player., I really wish be had at least gotten other teams offers to see what his true value is.
"This is just cliches and unquantifiable narrative , tbh, this isn't sports talk radio.. " That graph has Leonard peaking at age 24. Damn, according to those projections, at age 31(when he should be edging out of his prime), he'll be no better than his rookie season.
After seeing him last night you really are aware of his limitations and why he's not on the echelon of players that are either alls-stars or borderline. He makes a lot of klutz plays when there are no guys th o create looks for him. His jumpshots off the Dr never look like they will go in, he obviously is not going to make plays off the dribble very often and although he's improved, he's more at the level of tolerable than all-star. He's a roleplayer. He could be a good 3 and D anywhere but you saw for example how much more versatile and aggressive Marco is offensively while still being a relatively unathletic guy. I think Danny's contract is fair TBH. There could have been other teams willing to give him more, but then you enter the realm of Tristan Thompson. Is he really worth it? Tristan is another roleplayer who is elite at PnRdefense/offensive rebounding. He think he's a max guy based on that despite the other glaring holes in his game. Danny is elite at a couple things, but very limited in others. At some point you wonder yea, he could have possibly gotten more, but it would have been an overpay.
TP's graph
TP's graph
It's a step decline but not much worse than Sam Cassel I got no problem with parker retiring on his past accomplishment. Anything past 5 for any of the big three is gravy.TP's graph
"This is just cliches and unquantifiable narrative , tbh, this isn't sports talk radio.. " That graph has Leonard peaking at age 24
He's in his prime and I said it as early as last season. Don't expect him to get much better. Maybe he will out-duel Barnes this year.
Maybe porker can out-duel some rookie or a cardboard cutout. Maybe.
Damn 538 doesn't like the Aldridge signing much.
You need to look at the gray bar to determine the a range player will be in. The listed number is a conservative estimate; just like with win total projections, it is generally going to be higher than what is predicted (except for scrubs). For example, looking at the WAR charts for them in years before, Green, LMA, Mills, and most likely Duncan are not going to get worse than the previous year. So take that in mind when looking at the predictions."This is just cliches and unquantifiable narrative , tbh, this isn't sports talk radio.. " That graph has Leonard peaking at age 24
Maybe it's too soon to be worried; but Aldridge looked like sh** in the first preseason game.
Interesting thing about Aldridge is his lack of ability to pass the ball in the post ups..He missed so many players last night forcing the issue.
Hopefully that is not the norm. Whether he didn't see or just was not making the pass, for what ever reason, has yet to be determined so I won't pass judgement yet.
duncans got a really steep dropoff projected from last season to now
Agree. Also, people tend to confuse the most impactful player on the team with the best offensive player or leading scorer. Good ranking
Kawhi will never be in MVP discussion cause his raw numbers won't be there even though he will be a top 3 player in the league imo
As Bill Russell said, the game has always been, and will always be, about buckets. Green happens to be elite at defensive PPP and TS%. He's both efficient and prolific as a shooter. He's likely to own every relevant Spurs shooting record when it's all said and done, and he'll probably be pretty high up on the NBA ladder as well. He's also about as dynamic of a defensive player as guards come (would be the best steals guy on most teams and is a legit rim-protector as a wing; he's also perhaps the best iso defender on the team now that Splitter is in Atlanta). By most advanced metrics, he's a top-five player at his position and probably top 30 in the league. He was one of the best fantasy players in the league last season.
I know it's easy to look at what he doesn't do well and assume he's overrated. But if he scores well and is elite at stopping the other team from scoring, then the other stuff really doesn't matter all that much. He's the wing version of Tyson Chandler, except that Tyson gets almost too much credit for what he does at this point. Does he need the right guys around him to play to his potential? Yes. But that's true of every player except maybe Lebron. You let Danny do what he does, and it's almost impossible to find someone to do it better.
I see what you did there
Last edited by Raven; 10-10-2015 at 02:19 AM.
Check the graphs for guys like Curry, Harden, Durant, Westbrook, Butler etc. All of them are on a downward trend. Only youngish star that wasn't was Davis (at least from the ones I checked)."This is just cliches and unquantifiable narrative , tbh, this isn't sports talk radio.. " That graph has Leonard peaking at age 24
So according to this Spurs point guards aren't that valuable? I would rank Patty as #5 & give him about a 3.5 rating considering he'll be VERY valuable w/ the decline of Porker. D-West is ranked too high considering he is redundant w/ LMA/Diaw already on the roster which also probably decreased LMA's rating.
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