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Nice job.
Don't have time to analyze idea by idea, and I'm not sure I necessarily agree with everything you said, but it is definitely thought-provoking and worth the read, whether one agrees with it or not.
Has a quarter of the season passed already? Seriously, has it? I didn't do the math, so maybe the fraction is off, but it feels like the right time to give some grades for what we've seen from the beginning of the season.
If I had told you the Spurs were going to start off on a 66-win pace, you guys would be losing your minds.
If I had told you the Spurs were going to be 4 games back 20 games in, you guys would be losing your minds.
This is an amazing start for a team that we can pretty much all agree is treading water offensively while trying to get new pieces working. With that, let's look at some of the players. I won't look at all of them, as we know what Manu and Duncan are if they're healthy, and aside from a mention of how ing good his defense has been, the same goes for Parker.
Just have to add before I neglect to mention it: What an amazing time to be a Spur fan. Never thought the window would be open this long when I became a fan in ~1991
Lamarcus Aldridge
We have to start with the offseason's biggest prize, a guy universally agreed to be one of the greatest offensive players in the league. We also have to start off by mentioning how un-great his offense has been. He's struggled to fit in with the Spurs' offense so far. The saving grace for this season, and the surprise to anyone paying attention, is how amazingly good his defense has been so early on. I don't think anyone predicted he'd be this good at any point, let alone this early. In a defense where Pop trains players for years to eliminate mistakes, Aldridge has stepped in from day one and been more than solid, doing so from the center position, something we'd heard he absolutely didn't want to play, though he's done it just as he's done everything else so far as a Spur: without complaint. Aside from shot attempts, his numbers per minute are right where they should be. The scary part for the rest of the league should be how much room there is for improvement in this system. There's simply no telling how good this offense can get once it's chugging.
I've read people saying that he doesn't know how to set a pick, lamenting the loss of Splitter. From the games I've seen, I don't believe this is the case. Splitter is indeed one of the best pick setters in the league, but Lamarcus is no slouch. The pick is not the problem in this offense as I've seen it. The problem seems to be the direction the pick-setter goes.
Lamarcus picks and pops the overwhelming majority of the time.
Splitter rolled to the rim as close to 100 percent of the time as matters.
Because Aldridge is an excellent jump shooter, fading to an open spot hasn't hurt his personal field goal percentage terribly, but it's been a disaster for the rest of the team, particularly the spot-up shooters, and Danny Green in particular. Tim Duncan has been doing this in the offense for the last several years to avoid wear and tear, and now you have two bigs out in space, which prevents defenders from having to cheat at all. I have a solution for that which I'll detail further down, but I don't think it likely. I think the most realistic fix is for Lamarcus to start rolling toward the rim, which will draw more fouls, get more attention from the defense, suddenly Danny Green will find himself open more often, cheaters get punished for leaving him, and the offense will get startlingly good.
Kawhi Leonard
Kawhi Leonard has progressed as a player exactly how I imagined he would when he was a rookie, which is to say, he's progressed as a player exactly how I imagined George Hill, James Gist, and Malik Hairston would progress. Wasn't long ago that LJ and I were discussing on this message board what an amazing pipe dream it would be for Leonard to average 7 rebounds, with no mention of his jumpshot or his dribbling improving. I still don't believe he's as good as he is. I'm not saying he isn't, I'm just saying that I still have a hard time believing it when I watch. Is he as good a positional defender as Bruce Bowen? No, but he more than makes up for it with steals and blocks. Absolutely incredible player. He makes one move that you can see he got from Hakeem and another that he copied from Jordan. He's so much fun to watch, and he and Aldridge are likely to get even better as they learn how to play alongside one another.
Danny Green
Spacing has killed him, but he hasn't put his head down once. He just tries to work within the offense, and to his credit, he hasn't caused it to bog down. He's going to be fine.
David West
West has been the biggest problem so far, and it's not because he's a bad player. It's not even that he's making mistakes, because he does good things while on the floor. I'm of the opinion that he just can't anchor a defense next to Boris Diaw because of size, speed and rebounding. The real fix would be to move him or Boris to starting 4 and make Duncan the backup center behind Aldridge. The defense would probably not take a hit at all because opposing second units wouldn't have a layup line. You can still have Duncan and Aldridge together on the floor in crunch time, and nobody runs a 2 man game better than Manu and Duncan anyway. You know you miss it.
Boban Marjanovic
I've said before that I think Bomar would be a great weapon for killing small lineups due to his ability to score close up and his surprisingly quick feet, which allows him to keep up with quick defenders. He's also shown to be excellent at passing out of doubles in the post. This is a role, and won't come up every game, but I'd like to see him get minutes to make sure he's able to do it when it comes up. More garbage time as the first units get better will allow that to happen.
Kyle Anderson
I've read a lot of people saying Bullet Time can't play, and I just haven't been able to see what they see. They say he's slow, but he chases defenders down or beats someone to a loose ball, so I guess his speed doesn't matter. They say he can't jump, but you turn around and he's beating someone for a contested rebound or blocking a shot, so I guess jumping doesn't matter. He moves the ball well, doesn't give a about his own stats, gets deflections, doesn't foul, and wants to improve. Not sure why Spurs fans don't love him. Pop's going to yell at him a lot and pull him out of games. He's done that for everyone that's young and any good. Now it's Kyle's turn.
Jonathon Simmons
Simmons has a motor like few people in the league, and it caused him some difficulty early on. He seems more able to stay within himself now, and he's becoming useful off the bench. In a season where you can hardly imagine Manu staying healthy all year, it's nice to see Simmons coming around. Excited to see how he develops.
Rasual Butler
Butler is an example of why vets are important to le teams. Butler had to know that he was a bandaid to keep the Spurs going while the young guys got their bearings, and while he hasn't been spectacular, he's been solid. He deserves a lot of credit for holding the fort down early, and he'll be ready as needed going forward, but he's likely to have a really great seat for the playoffs.
Nice job.
Don't have time to analyze idea by idea, and I'm not sure I necessarily agree with everything you said, but it is definitely thought-provoking and worth the read, whether one agrees with it or not.
Cheers homer, I like it because it's Friday night
Why is Boban in street clothes so often? How's his health?
I really liked LA posting up last night when he could not hit a shot in the first half. With TD on the floor, Aldridge should be scoring 10-12 points in the lane every night.
Three point shooting is my biggest fear this year.
What a coincidence! I have been watching the same team as you! Very nice write up.
Heh..."Bullet Time", love that name. Maybe we can attribute it if he goes the same production trajectory Diaw went.
Honestly loving this team despite its inconsistencies on offense. If not for the enormous spectre of GSW, I'd be a ball of hype atm.
Nice write-up. Thanks for taking the time.
Kawhi [He's so much fun to watch, and he and Aldridge are likely to get even better as they learn how to play alongside one another.] There's a good point. You know they will develop more chemistry as they play together more. That part will be fun to watch.
Kawhi [He makes one move that you can see he got from Hakeem and another that he copied from Jordan.] And a few of his own. Did you see that strange little hook-shotput that Kawhi made last night against Memphis? Not much to say about that but "Wow".
Boban [but I'd like to see him get minutes to make sure he's able to do it when it comes up] A lot of people are freaked out that Boban isn't getting a lot of minutes. They were the same way when Splitter arrived. He was a Spurs draft pick, and had developed a pretty amazing pedigree in Europe, and he only played 12 minutes per game in his first season. That wasn't about the injuries (or at least not much of it) - when he was injured, he was in street clothes, and that doesn't count toward minutes per game. It shouldn't be any surprise that a first year big is spending a lot of time watching.
West [I'm of the opinion that he just can't anchor a defense next to Boris Diaw because of size, speed and rebounding.] I hope they figure that out. The idea of Tim coming off the bench just doesn't fit into my head. I know Manu has done it for years, and I'm sure Tim would do whatever is necessary for the team. But that? Find another way, Pop. As for West, I've always liked his toughness and passion on the court. That hasn't changed.
The Anderson hate is mostly from fans who want to see an all-star team all in silver and black, somehow magically fit under the salary cap.
Very thoughtful discussion starter. I think most everyone on ST agrees that the West/Diaw pairing as a backup frontcourt is not what we want, but what you point out is why I think it will keep happening. Pop is just not ready to have Duncan come off the bench, even if Duncan is/was willing to do it. I'm not sure a lot of fans are ready for that either, me included. So what that means is that Duncan and LMA will start every game together and likely end every game together, and that means there will be periods when the Diaw/West pairing is necessary.
What I hope is that the period(s) when the backup duo is out there by themselves is limited, and that can happen by Pop juggling Tim and LMA's time on the floor together more than he has so far. He used to do that with Tim and Tiago at times (making sure that one or the other was ALMOST always on the floor), and that is what I expect will happen again this season, whenever Pop gets done fiddling with line-ups and rotations.
We are such an utterly spoiled fan base. There is no way I expected Kawhi to develop so fully, really in the last two years, and he is an amazing player to watch. A future that includes LMA and Kawhi and a more developed Simmons is just a beautiful thing to contemplate. In the meantime, our 'old big three' kept us going a couple of times in the last two games when the rest of the team was struggling, and I will still rue the day that we lose any, much less all of them.
All that means for the balance of the season is that if we are able to stay healthy, I think the sky is the limit, and that includes the Warriors.
oops... just announced that Boban and Ray are going to the farm team.
Appreciate the OVOP taking the time.
One thing is this team reminds me of the first year's Heatles. I don't think their ceiling is as high, but everyone thought the Heat were going to be some offensive monster. Bosh was a stud. Lebron stud. Wade stud. But we've all seen how hard it can be for an offense to come together, even with talent.
Having said that, like the Heat, they overcame early season struggles because their defense was great. I see a same arc for these Spurs, but still plenty of headroom for the offense.
you mean this team doesn't have even a Finals ceiling in 2016 like Heatles 2011 or their overall 4-year run ?
The West, and league, big picture after 20 games suggest that for SA the Warriors matchup is pretty much de-facto Finals for them..
Lower ceiling offensively, higher ceiling defensively imo
I'm convinced that it's the best way to maximize the team's success, and I'm equally convinced that there's absolutely no way it's going to happen, which is why I suggested that Aldridge just learn to roll to the basket like Splitter does.
Well Pop will make changes if he has to. Previous years Splitter always started with Duncan, until of course, when Spurs needed to spread the court.
What I desperately want to see is both West and LMA spreading the court by attempting more 3's instead of mid range jumpers.
I mean their 4 year run & overall peak possiblity. Still definitely a finals-level team if it works out, just not quite as talented as that Heat team.
The key to that is having Tim play the Tiago role. LMA is the spacer like Tim was (where he struggled with his outside shot) and Tim should be the lower block/screen and roll guy.
My observation is that after the first few games, Pop intentionally pulled Tim out earlier so to always have one of Tim/Aldridge on court. In the last last several games, it seems he was no longer that afraid having West/Diaw playing together.
I think the issue with Danny isn't inherently Aldridge on the pnr. You can space 3 outside shooters and Kawhi can operate out of the slot and high post himself; he is incredibly dynamic. They just need to get on the same page when dealing with all that ball denial that tries to funnel the ball to Green. Aldridge does seem to screw up plays on the regular but I don't think the pick and pop dooms Danny.
Great write-up! Yes we have a lot to be excited about. I think the idea of having West and Bobo on the floor together as little as possible makes great sense. I just don't think you are going to see Tim coming off the bench. Our defense is just too good with the starting lineup. In the playoffs I don't think we will see much time on the floor without Tim or LMA.
I thought before the season began that the solution was bringing Duncan off the bench, but even for other reasons why you don't do it, the defense with the two towers is ridiculously good. I'd sacrifice bench D to get that starting D. Obviously more important. Meanwhile I believe Diaw and West will figure out how to clog the paint. MAnderson may help, here, with his length and rebounding. Mthose two bench bugs are too smart and experienced not to hammer things out. Of course they can drop Duncan or Aldridge sooner from the staring minutes as match ups dictate.
I don't judge the West/Bobo pairing as opposed to some arbitrary ideal of perfection. I compare it to what we have had in the past and who we are matched up against. Baynes-Bobo may be better defensively overall but not by all that much. Baynes is still a lateral stiff for all his rim protection and strength in the post. Baynes turned the ball over way too much to be anything better than average on offense where West is another floor general.
I don't really think I should have to justify it being better than Bonner-Blair or Bonner-Bobo. West is a better offensive player, defender and rebounder. I think overall you can deal with Ezeli or whatever bench big you conjure up in the 5v5.
I think one reason Pop has kept Anderson with the bench is not as a favor to Anderson or his development. We all know Pop doesn't play favorites of any kind, and even less with undeveloped youngsters. It is in fact undeveloped youngsters who have to hustle like no other to get some playing time. If Anderson wasn't doing anything for our bench, Pop would put Rasual or Simmons there and send Anderson back to the dleague to work on his offensive game and shot selection some more, where he's been Diaw 1.0.
Nope, while it is great for his development to be under Pop's individual coaching, he needs to have a role to get playing time and his role seems to be to strengthen our bench's defense, compensating however he finds that he can using his instincts on help defense and boards. He has to be the first man getting back in transition, because Mills and Manu aren't doing it, and he has to be on help defense hyper-aware of where our bigs are getting beat and help out. He has to box out guys bigger than him if our bigs are out of position and he has to take the other team's best scorer for some posessions to spare Manu's body and energy. Anderson's role, as ridiculous as it would have sounded to say of Slow-Mo is defense and boards. His Drtg shows that he's fulfilling his purpose sufficiently well, but it is only a regular season patch.
I am sure Pop knows the problems our bench has, and he's just determined to spare Tim a little bit, and also I think he wants Tim to coach Lamarcus up quite honestly. Can Lamarcus anchor our defense without Tim? Probably not yet on his own. Tim and Lamarcus together right now is for Lamarcus' benefit. Just my view. Pop probably wants Lamarcus to learn from Tim by having them together on the court. He will make adjustments when he needs to make them.
I agree on everything else you mentioned, except Danny. He's been getting good shots, but fails to make them at his elite rate or he decides to put the ball on the floor to nefarious results. I think all the garbage time Danny has been getting is to work on his ball handling and decision making, much like Simmons, Anderson and Boban work on their games in garbage time. Danny this season is a project at the current time.
Concerning Simmons, I think you described it the most eloquently: he plays with such a high motor and with such energy that he seemed to be out of control at times, in SL and specially early this season. We have seen improvements from him, and he's honestly been quite impressive. He can get his own shots when he wants while at the same time being an unselfish player and a good passer. He will draw fouls bc he attacks the rim with athleticism, and he has the tools to defend the SG position well. Pop just seems to want him to limit mistakes to a minimum at this point, not only to cut the TO, but also his fouling on guys. The guys Simmons would be backing up already do a whole lot for us in terms of defense as both Danny and Manu are disruptive, and Danny quite simply excels on switches and in one on one man defense. Simmons is not going to be on these guys' level, but he needs to be solid and has been getting better.
Last edited by SAGirl; 12-04-2015 at 09:36 PM.
Good call.
Can Tim be that guy though?
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