ESPN: NBA Lockdown - Who wins in a Spurs/Warriors playoffs matchup?

[SAGirl]

it's an interesting thought; but probably over-stated at best. Pop relied on Duncan more than anyone in the Clips series. Timmy has some slight natural regression; but Pop still relies on him in big games to a good extent. Also, Pop puts trust in a limited amount of players in a playoff series and in rookies. I think where I agree is I can see Pop going deeper than he has in the past; but then again, this is arguably the deepest bench yet.

My comment was more than anything concerning the matching. Timmy against Clippers is a necessity bc they have 2 traditional big men. Not all teams do that, that is when Timmy is ? to me.

[Obstructed_View]

What did you think of that lineup Pop trotted out: Tony, Simmons, Danny, Kawhi, LMA.
Pop later subbed Manu for Simmons.
I have my su ion Pop is actually going to match up.
Which means, rookie Simmons may play a larger role than one would expect. We won't see much Tim (20 mins?). Has he been turned into Tiago?
Boris/WEst will be needed to post up and punish whoever matches up with them.

I'm not concerned about lineups. I've seen him go small this season. I've seen Tony and Patty in the backcourt as well, and I liked all of them because they were used situationally. I think small lineups have their place, but Pop has allowed teams to dictate what he does with small lineups, taking the Spurs away from their own strengths, including benching a healthy center rotation for the playoffs. I'm absolutely sure that Steve Kerr remembers it and will try to make it happen. What I'm not sure of is if Pop will take the bait.

[Spurtacular]

IMHO that is probably under-stated at best. Timmy has shown real inconsistency this year, and his mid-range shot is, well, shot. At the end of last season, I did not expect to see as much slippage as we have seen on offense, although he is still a great defensive asset - the anchor of the defense, still.

TD's not in games to make mid range jumpers. Even at the height of his powers, that was not an optimal shot. He can give them block offense in grind out games and is a force on defense and the boards at an all-star level. The idea of him going down to 20 minutes or less in the playoffs is not likely at all.

[Spurtacular]

I can see some problem with Livingston post ups on Patty/Manu...Anyway, it's just a minor problem. Boris-Manu-Patty-West-Simms-Boban is a dangerous unit.

A hot Curry is the one thing the Spurs have to worry about. If he's not bringing it, Spurs in 4.

[sasaint]

TD's not in games to make mid range jumpers. Even at the height of his powers, that was not an optimal shot. He can give them block offense in grind out games and is a force on defense and the boards at an all-star level. The idea of him going down to 20 minutes or less in the playoffs is not likely at all.

I like your optimism, however, I wouldn't place any bets on Timmy's court time come the playoffs. The guy is a legend, and proven many of us wrong on a couple of occasions in the past. Nothing Timmy does will surprise me. Having said that, I don't know if Tim will average 20+ minutes in the playoffs. I think Boban is a potential Warrior-killer, and I hope he is capable of contributing at a high level and Pop will give him the time to so contribute.

[ceperez]

Spurs are in trouble against the Warriors if they can't lower the 3 point shooting percentage. The Warriors will attempt more 3 point attempts and as a consequence will have a higher effective FG (eFG%) percentage. That sill win them close games and that may be more than enough to win the entire series.

The problem against defending 3 point shooters it that the can keep a team always in the game. Just look at the game against the Knicks. Spurs were up 12 points with less than 4 minutes to go. Spurs ending up having to win the last play.

[TD 21]

If the Spurs go small when GS does, they lose in five games.

I said the same thing earlier in the season. Not only are they not out small balling them, but if the plan was/is to play a small ball series, then the construction of this roster makes no sense.

I don't know if it was just his opinion or what, but Parker said after last game, that (to paraphrase) it was good practice playing small because they're going to need to play small a lot against some of the elite teams.


All this talk about matching their small lineup is overstated. Maybe if, over a few games, it's clear the Spurs are winning the battle of regular rotations, they'll lean more heavily on it or other small lineups, but that lineup doesn't play together as much as many seem to think.

Should they do so and it causes problems, then adjust how much Duncan plays, especially alongside Aldridge, but going in, the big that should lose minutes is West. He's least likely to punish their smalls on the block and/or glass and lacks the mobility to defend them.

I see Simms on Livingston. Is there anyone to hide Patty in their bench. Austin Rivers also owns Patty. Tbh, Patty is a defensive sieve. His saving grace is all the loose balls, hustle plays and energy plays, but it doesn't seem to me like he can present much resistance to guys bigger than him.

Mills will guard Barbosa. Ginobili/Simmons should be interchangeable on Livingston/Iguodala, but who knows if Simmons figures into the rotation. If they do as they should and stay big, they can essentially play a three wing rotation.

[SAGirl]

I don't see the staying big and it's just based on observations of Pop strategies. If he intended to force anyone to adjust he would have tried that already. So far I have seen him stay small, try Anderson at the 4 very early in the season, now he's just added Simmons and rotated Kawhi to the 4. He's also gone to Diaw aggressively and West to a degree. He's split up Td and LMA.

Obviously a lot of this is due diligence, experimenting, early season mixing and matching of lineups to have an idea who works and who doesn't. But one thing I haven't seen is 2 twin towers when teams go ultra small, specially in close games.

[TD 21]

I don't see the staying big and it's just based on observations of Pop strategies. If he intended to force anyone to adjust he would have tried that already. So far I have seen him stay small, try Anderson at the 4 very early in the season, now he's just added Simmons and rotated Kawhi to the 4. He's also gone to Diaw aggressively and West to a degree. He's split up Td and LMA.

Obviously a lot of this is due diligence, experimenting, early season mixing and matching of lineups to have an idea who works and who doesn't. But one thing I haven't seen is 2 twin towers when teams go ultra small, specially in close games.

When I say staying big, I don't necessarily mean playing Duncan and Aldridge together for extended minutes, I just mean playing two traditional bigs together at almost all times. It's the best way to maximize their talent, play to their strengths and minimize their weaknesses. Going away from that, especially going in, essentially concedes that they have to play on their terms. That's a bad message to send.

And let's be clear: It's the Warriors who have to prove themselves to the Spurs, not the other way around. The Spurs have dominated them head to head, beat them in the only series they've played and have far more pedigree.

[ElNono]

I think Boris is our wildcard here... he can post up almost anybody if they dare to go too small...

[ceperez]

I think Boris is our wildcard here... he can post up almost anybody if they dare to go too small...

Well, we don't know how well Boris will do posting up against Draymond Green. Will he be better than LMA?

They only choice may be to have Boris with LMA and force the weaker GSW defender to guard LMA or Boris.

By just having one big, the Warriors gamble that the opposing team post player isn't efficient enough against Green. Mosgov of the Cavs scored a ton of points against the Warriors, unfortunately he wasn't efficient enough.

Honestly, GSW is a nightmare matchup.

[100%duncan]

LMA/TD Boris Kawhi Green/Manu Parker/Mills is the lineup to beat golden state with Boris and the PG position being the most important imo

[ElNono]

Well, we don't know how well Boris will do posting up against Draymond Green. Will he be better than LMA?

They only choice may be to have Boris with LMA and force the weaker GSW defender to guard LMA or Boris.

By just having one big, the Warriors gamble that the opposing team post player isn't efficient enough against Green. Mosgov of the Cavs scored a ton of points against the Warriors, unfortunately he wasn't efficient enough.

Honestly, GSW is a nightmare matchup.

Boris-LMA, Boris-West, Boris-TD... Pop used to counter Miami's small ball with Boris-Tiago or Boris-TD... he liked to call it "medium ball". Boris is just so versatile when he's engaged.

[Darius McCrary]

I'm not concerned about lineups. I've seen him go small this season. I've seen Tony and Patty in the backcourt as well, and I liked all of them because they were used situationally. I think small lineups have their place, but Pop has allowed teams to dictate what he does with small lineups, taking the Spurs away from their own strengths, including benching a healthy center rotation for the playoffs. I'm absolutely sure that Steve Kerr remembers it and will try to make it happen. What I'm not sure of is if Pop will take the bait.

2006's playoff lineup still haunts my ing dreams

[Obstructed_View]

2006's playoff lineup still haunts my ing dreams

Yep, you know it's always in the back of my mind when I talk about Pop or small lineups.

[ceperez]

LMA/TD Boris Kawhi Green/Manu Parker/Mills is the lineup to beat golden state with Boris and the PG position being the most important imo

Parker/Mills??? WTF, who are either of those two supposed to guard?

[100%duncan]

Parker/Mills??? WTF, who are either of those two supposed to guard?

Iguodal, barnes, those spotting uo in the corner. even curry for only small bits of mins

Ive read your takes, simmons wont be that man come playoff time against gsw. Too early

[DenialTwist]

Parker/Mills??? WTF, who are either of those two supposed to guard?

Exactly.

[SnakeBoy]

Kyle can bother Livingston post-ups moves with his length more than Simms...who knows how Pop will play Simms/Kyle against the Warriors.

Jonathon's working his way into the regular rotation now, but we watched in the last game against Utah that they can play together, and it's a long season.

In the playoffs Pop will most likely have both of them playing the bench with their butts.

[ceperez]

Kyle can bother Livingston post-ups moves with his length more than Simms...who knows how Pop will play Simms/Kyle against the Warriors.

Jonathon's working his way into the regular rotation now, but we watched in the last game against Utah that they can play together, and it's a long season.

The open question really is, who is on the court come crunch time?

GSW will field Curry, Igoudala, Thompson, Barnes and Green. That's their small ball line up.

Spurs will field (???), Green, Leonard, Diaw(Duncan?), Aldridge

That ??? hopefully isn't some undersized 6'2" or less guard who can't defend the 3. The most logical choice though seems to be Manu.

The offense however should flow through either Leonard or Diaw. Honestly, it looks like a toss up as to who wins. Spurs need to play ridiculously efficient to win.