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If this is the way he's going to play from here on out, he needs to drop in the rotation.
My take is...
They are finally finding Danny with the amount of separation he was used to and in his spots. It's just a matter of time before he is back in the full swing. Aldridge/west/Leonard taking more midrange and working more inside out is what screwed him in the first part of the year. Most of Danny's threes have come from the corner in the past... Or in transition.
THE TEAM, is taking fewer of those now. Parker, Gino and Bobo are usually the ones that generate corner 3's, and they have had the ball less when green is on the floor.
That's the way it feels to me... Don't have any stats to back it up.
If this is the way he's going to play from here on out, he needs to drop in the rotation.
He's been difficult to watch. What also pisses me off is that he really has a low BBIQ. He consistently fails to make the right BB play. He misses open guys and instead forces up bad shots. This is nothing new, but I could overlook it when he was making his shots an making defensive hustle plays. He's improved defensively --He didn't start out well in that department either.-- and has attempted to limit his boneheaded plays, but we still see a few of those every game, meanwhile his shot is missing. Right now, Danny is my least liked Spur. I am starting to feel we could start Simmons, give the rest of the minutes to Anderson and we would not be much worse. Danny has been that bad. Even with his most recent better games this month, he still has the worst statistical impact than the other two young wings and watching the games you understand, the number of times Pop has already subbed him out early in favor of Simmons bc Danny is stinking it up. If he were in a tryout for the team, I pick both Simmons and Anderson b4 Danny.
I think I have had it. I hope he comes through for us soon because the schedule is getting tougher, but if he doesn't, I am going to go all ceperez on Danny like Ceperez had gone on Lamarcus.
I am close to that. If he doesn't come through for us in the next few games he's going to be through. He's more Richard Jefferson than the guy you have been harping on all season in LMA.
That's what I keep wondering, when is pop gonna shorten his leash. It's not like pop to give so much slack for this long of stretch for a non big 3 player. I mean he did for Parker last year but is green held in that regard now? Green's contract must of really had a impact on pop. I think the only way he loses his spot in the starting lineup is if his poor play single handedly costs us a game and I hope it's not against the warriors.
If wishes were fishes... No team is perfect, bud. I feel good about this one. We'll see how it all plays out. This could be a Year For The Ages.
Green just signed a multi-year. He HAS to see if Green can play out of this stretch of badness.
Pop is a bit Zen like Phil: he'll ride this out and feed confidence until it's the point of no return, which will be later than we think it should be.
Whatevs. You and I can't control it.
I admit that Green has nowhere near the basketball talent of either Simmons or Anderson, however he's got an uncanny transition defense and a *potentially* lethal 3 point shot.
He deserves some slack and Spurs need that additional SG occupied to prevent Manu from driving himself into exhaustion.
At this point, I am going to have to say that the criticism of Danny is getting way overdone. I am guilty. I poke fun and laugh at him, too, when the obvious Keystone Cop play transpires just as one expects when we see him put the ball on the floor. They pushed him, it appeared in the beginning of the season, to try to work on his dribbling, driving, and passing when pushed off the three point line. It was, to no big surprise, mostly a failure. If he stops the creative passing off the closeout drive, gets more conservative, takes a one dribble reset if short in the shot clock and shoots a reset three or long two if he HAS to (turning a bunch of turnovers and low percentage shots into just low percentage shots), or passes to an outlet back around the arc, etc, if there's still time on the shot clock (for a higher percentage shot), and otherwise just takes his normal 3's when available, he can be back to a more normal version of 3&D Danny in no time.
Another poster has stated that he's shooting 43% in January from 3, yet a lot of posters act as if he's getting worse, when he's actually getting better. At least from 3.
It's just a matter of dialing back his off-the-dribble 2point attempts, now, and ramping the D back up, or at least maintaining it.
He is somewhat reminiscent of Jeff Ayres when he attempts to handle the ball, but he really doesn't need to as much as he was earlier in the season, I don't believe. Pop was just giving him a little rope. He hung himself. Pop can dial it back, I think, and Danny can still be an effective 3&D guy.
I think he will stay put in his role like Tony last season. Hopefully he comes through when we need him but he's going to get minutes regardless. He has all season to get out of this funk. He will just continue to further Simmons' s development at the cost of his own minutes but I don't think he gets completely benched. The playoffs however are different.
That 43% is boosted by the only game this season he went HOT and made 6/8 threes. Overall one hot game does not make up for a bunch of icy games and some mediocre ones. If you take that single game away, he's right back where he started.
Shots in January are shots in January. It is what it is. If I can go back and throw out six of his misses in December, guess what, he looks like a better shooter in December. January isn't over. He could stink it up, but he's not, yet. You want to throw out a huge percentage of a small sample just because it doesn't fit the narrative. At best, you can say inconclusive. But, it's much more in agreement with reversion toward his mean than it is proof of a new paradigm.
If you select just January you are still being selective. He's 33% for the season for a specialist, whose thing is the 3. He had one game, a single game all season he made a lot of 3s. He's still 33 % for the season and about that same number fir the month save the anomaly that is a single game in the entire season.
My problem with that is that he's a specialist like Bonner. If he's not hitting the 3 at an elite rate they all of a sudden are sinking your team. Granted Danny does a whole lot more than Bonner but those other things can be provided by others who also give you more versatility.
I have quite honestly soured on Danny. He's limited any way you put it, and he's failing to do the . One thing he was really good at. That just magnifies everything else he does poorly.
I still believe in Danny. You guys are in for a rude awakening if you want Simmons to start over him.
Of course I am being selective. I was talking about the supposed trend, and using data supplied for this month by another poster. The narrative is that he has gotten worse and reached a plateaued low or is getting worse. The narrative has not been that he is getting better and reverting toward his mean: a 40+% career 3 point shooter, probably, but surely that after his first two years in the league. I'm not throwing out any data. I am comparing this month to previous months. And, accepting that it is incomplete.
On the other hand, you, out of no where, want to throw out a bunch of data.
And, you're concluding he's a 33% 3 point shooter for the season, when the season is only half over. But, I will admit, he will remain a poor looking shooter if we throw out a bunch of his makes because it's not fair that...what...he had a good shooting night?
Just checking, again, but we're not going back and throwing out a bunch of misses on nights where he shot poorly, right? That's the fair thing to do with outliers if you are trying to be fair. To be honest, compared with his entire body of work, if we want to throw out outliers, it would be November and December.
No I am just saying he's been off more than on for ALL of the season and the supposed trend is boosted by a single game where in the same span he's had 0-fers from 3 multiple games. He didn't score against the Mac's until garbage time for example and was 0-4 from 3 and they were open shots..... to be convinced he's "trending" up I require more than that single game. When viewed in the context of his season that game appeared to signal he had turned a corner, but since then he's reverts to his mean this season. That game seem more like the isolated case rather than the trend. Granted the season is not over and I have been among those more consistent in supporting his minutes and his starting roles, but since then he's continued clanking a lot of shots and has in the process become a very hard to watch player.
When he shoots I don't think it's going to go in anymore.... it used to be the reverse
Still boils down to you thinking that one game doesn't count in some way. His o'fers you refer to still average in with that game just the same. O'fer three and 6/8 still give you 6/11. You're en led to be sour on him, but that doesn't change the math.
You're wanting to make some kind of sample size argument when the largest sample of all would still imply this is just an anomaly.
And since January apparently doesn't count, you're abandoning your faith in his ability to shoot on, basically, two months. Two months where it looks like they were experimenting with his ball handling a bit (I expect his shooting to suffer the more he dribbles), and during a two month time when they're incorporating new players. Another reason not to be too surprised at some drop off.
I looked it up. He's .410 career and .429 in the playoffs.
I think it unwise to think that kind of track record shooting ends the season .33 or lower, as the team gets more comfortable and experienced with each other, adjustments are made, etc.
If you give me two bets, one that this month is indicative of a reversion to the mean and he continues to shoot better from three the remainder of the season than he did in November and December or two...he stays at that Nov/Dec level or worse...
The first bet seems far, FAR safer.
So safe, I would make a substantial wager on it if I were prone to doing so on message boards, which I'm not.
As usual, time will tell.
A little factoid: One time I thought Bonner was just done, about 3-4 years ago. His one mail skill, shooting the three. He just couldn't do. I thought every game he got to play in and shoot in that regular season, he just missed. What good was he, then?
Then someone pointed out he was shooting .41, career average. My perception was just skewed.
Danny doesn't have a low BBIQ. He's lost his confidence, and he has grown hesitant. And that is one thing that will simply kill you in any compe ive sport. Even in a slow-paced, individual sport like golf, hesitation - failure to commit - you're dead in the water.
Danny started being too hesitant to take 3P shots. Now it's gotten to the point that he's hesitant on defense. I commented on it probably a couple of weeks ago. He's not stupid - he's second-guessing himself. They need to get him with a really good sports psychologist, or they need to get someone else in the starting lineup with enough time to get ready for the post-season.
I really, really like Danny. But he's broken. The Spurs need his defense (and his 3P shooting). But he's not defending like Danny lately. And he's in one of those loops that feeds itself. If they can't help him get his confidence back, he's going to keep getting worse.
It's called the yips. Google "Mackey Sasser". It's a true story, and it ended his baseball career. Danny is approaching that kind of yips, IMO.
He's going to get all season to get out of his funk. I don't think Pop benches him for that. Not long ago I read an article about Tim's midrange shot and the season it disappeared. He shot it all season and it never came back. During the playoffs, Pop just made an adjustment and he didn't take that shot. For Timmy it's age, possibly the knee bothering him, or getting some unbalance due to the knee. He's since tried to regain that shot but it's gone. For Danny, if the,shot is not falling you can't tell him not to take it, but he might be unplayable and that is a loosing scenario.
Last season Bonner shot 36% from 3, which was terrible for his own personal record and also bc he's a limited player and his best contribution is that 3. It was also unfortunate bc Tiago was injured a lot and Bonner ended up starting a lot of games for us and played a lot of real minutes and not just garbage time. His best shooting would have been useful but he didn't have it. What I remember the most is that he didn't have it when it was needed very often. At one point last season he was at 30% while in the rotation. He eventually "trended up", but the shot wasn't as reliable as it had been and was no doubt boosted later in the season in garbage time. He then said he had an elbow injury.
Danny I don't think has any of these issues. He did have hesitation, doubt and was trying to do too much, specially early. He has since cleaned up the effort to try to do too much and has tried to keep it simple. Save 1 game, he's still mostly been off. I d o t discount the one game, but at the time it signalled he was coming out of his funk, but has since then gone back to his icy games. His misses are not even rimming out which lends credence to GSH. He has many wide off the mark misses where his shot was not even in the right direction.
Last edited by SAGirl; 01-20-2016 at 12:40 AM.
One of the reasons I think his spot is off is because he's too comfortable. He's got it made. Before if he made mistakes he'd get pulled immediately or if his spot was off he'd get pulled. He had his first few shots to prove his time. If he made them he stayed if not he lost time. But then we had Marco, a veteran who could earn more time. Note we have an unproven rookie so I guess that factors into pops reluctance. But now with Simmons showing so much, pop has the luxury to sit danny more. Kinda like Houston riding hoyer till the end cause they didn't really have another option. I hope that's not us. How much more does Simmons have to show to get more of greens minutes while he slumps?
To answer the question, I think it does help. Danny has shown a history of doing work when a fire is lit under his ass. He needs to be coached, and coached hard. No more kissing his ass. He needs to do his job or he's gonna sit. You got two players that are stepping up in their very limited role and pop has given opportunities to players in these situations historically. Pop may not like it, but half the season is gone and all this slack hasn't helped. Danny is just hanging himself with all that rope. My opinion
What I find funny about this is, despite the recent struggles of Mills and Green, the Spurs are still 2nd in the league in 3pt % at nearly 38%. I guess we have just grown accustomed to the 40-41% 3pt shooting by the Spurs. When those two get clicking again, the Spurs will be back over .400.
I don't want Danny to shoot 42% from 3 for the season, that would mean he'd have to go ~50% for the rest of the season which is highly unlikely. I just want him to hit 42% of his threes for the rest of the season.
That would be fine.
Chip clearly needs to spend some time with Danny Green. After watching him this year I can convinced that Danny has changed his shooting stroke a little bit and that is the source of his trouble. It looks to me that Danny is ing the ball further back on his shooting motion. Instead of a smooth motion going up he is slinging the ball back and then forward on a lot of his attempts. I think this can be fixed and I can only assume that Chip is working w Green on it.
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