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Good effort, good write-up brother.
I enjoyed the read and you've given me food for thought.
Kudos.
Okay, boys and girls, here we go. Never in the history of the league have two teams had this kind of winning percentage this deep into the year. In this day of the instant news cycle, it's safe to say that this is, if not the biggest regular season NBA game ever, at least the most overhyped. I'm fairly certain that the only person who really knows this game's value sits at the head of the Spurs bench wearing a scowl and no tie.
The Warriors, contrary to the belief of many casual observers, are not just a three-point-shooting team. Can they fill it up from distance? Absolutely. Is Steph Curry inhumanly good to about 60 feet? Oh yeah. Those things are not the reason they're nearly unbeatable, but they're good for bloating their point differential. The Warriors win primarily with the same philosophy the Spurs have: Play solid defense, don't make mistakes, utilize the fast break, capitalize on the opponent's bad decisions. They have a roster full of guys who can score in the paint, who can run the floor and pass, and who can hit jumpers. Oh yeah, they're all above-average defenders.
The Spurs' philosophy has always been to play the percentages. Play smart, don't take risks, secure your rebounds, get back on defense. Share the ball, trust your teammates, get the best shot possible, don't foul. Those rules are always followed, and it makes them very tough to beat. It makes it even harder for teams like the Warriors, who feed on your mistakes.
A note about getting back on defense. A staple of Spurs defense for years, which severely limits a team's fast break, this is the philosophy that killed the seven-seconds-or-less Suns teams. The only tweak to this strategy is that you have to pick up Curry at half court and set your pick and roll defense an extra ten feet from the basket. Every time you fall asleep, he's going to launch a shot, and he's going to hit 40 percent of those. Tony Parker's defense has been superb this season, and he's the key. You can put Kawhi on him at times just to frustrate him, but Tony has to pick up the slack or it means free points for the Dubs.
Will Curry get past Parker? Of course. That's why you have teammates. If you play to keep him from getting past you, he's open to shoot. I'd rather funnel him to the paint and let the front line deal with him. Just don't give up the open jumpers, especially the ones worth three points. If he hits one with a hand in his face, there's nothing you can do about it. Curry might be able to hit enough contested jumpers to win this game, but you can't win four out of seven that way, so just stay at home and play smart.
Don't go small
Matching their small lineups would be a mistake. Taking your bigs out plays into their hands, as their small lineup is, if not better, more used to playing together. The Spurs have a three guard lineup that can be effective, but Kawhi needs to be the power forward, and you probably need Aldridge, Diaw or West as the center. Duncan's lack of mobility and outside shooting could be a liability. This lineup can be massively effective, but should only be used carefully and kept together based on effectiveness.
Post them up
The Dubs have a team full of amazing defenders, and they like to go small because of the boost in their offense is so effective that teams have to match up with them. The trick is not to. Punish them every time Bogut is off the floor. They have defenders that can be exploited by good post players, and the Spurs have a number of them. With Duncan, Aldridge and Diaw, the Spurs should make sure they've got at least one post-up threat on the floor for most of the game. Leonard has gotten good enough in the post to cause fits for them in small lineups.
Run
The Spurs' passing on offense should keep the defense on the move, but make sure to press the advantage on live-ball turnovers or long rebounds. A jump shooter that's worried about getting scored on isn't concentrating on his shot. A jump shooter with tired legs from defending the fast break isn't as effective.
Don't play their game
In other words, don't get into a three point shooting contest with them. There are no words to describe Steph Curry. Watching him shoot, it's hard not to wonder if he got hit by lightning getting his sneakers down from a power line. You can't compete. Don't. A bad shot is a turnover, and turnovers put the ball back in his hands. Maybe three guys in the league can compete with Curry from outside if they're having a hot night, and one of them is Curry's teammate. If Danny Green, who is one of the other two, is on, you feed him the ball, but counting on hot shooting should never be part of your game plan, and it hasn't been part of Pop's for a long time.
Take open shots
This one will ruffle the feathers of the "long two is the worst shot in the league" crowd, but the best way to disrupt the Warriors' defense is to hit your shots, and no team is better built to hit midrange jumpers than your Spurs. A made two is so much better than a missed three, and if you've already got an advantage in the post and can hit open jumpers, you open up the lane for layups.
Make them work
Yet another strength of the Spurs, passing up good shots for better shots. Against the Warriors, the only thing worse than a bad shot is a bad shot without making them play 20 seconds of defense. Consistently make them work on defense and their offense suddenly becomes less deadly.
Take advantage of their bench
The Warriors are a pretty deep team with pretty amazing players, but the best players are their starters and their small lineup, which is mostly starters. The key to taking advantage of their bench requires an even better bench. Oh, look! The Spurs happen to have exactly that.
Can the Spurs get blown out? Probably, though they haven't been blown out a single time this season. If their jumpers rim out like they did against Cleveland and Detroit, they will probably find themselves further behind against the Dubs. They're going to come out with a ton of adrenaline with their crowd screaming. Once you weather that storm, you just go to work, do what you do and reel them in.
Good effort, good write-up brother.
I enjoyed the read and you've given me food for thought.
Kudos.
10/10 tbh +1 and this
solid writeup, thanks, although I think if there's a game where we're going to see Pop putting out there a variety of small ball lineups, is this one. we'll see.
Really nice read. Well done.
Good job. Their "weaknesses" are known are basically not called Curry, Thompson or Green.
Attack Raymond with LMA relentlessly... dude is overrated
Harass the out of Curry. Don't double him because he'll chop you up with passing, but hard aggressive hedges with quick rotations back and no switching unless there's absolutely no choice.
Attack Raymond with LMA relentlessly... dude is overrated
Good read. Thanks!
If Pop wants to play at a relatively slow pace, our post up players are the keys. I'd love to watch LMA/Diaw in the post against Green, also Kawhi against Barnes.
Kawhi's one of the most efficient post-up players in the league right now, top #2....Hopefully, he doesn't listen people here saying he needs to trot to the corner and wait there most of times...and he stays aggressive on both ends all game.
Last edited by YGWHI; 01-23-2016 at 07:26 PM.
Spurs don't need to go small to match the warriors imo because Diaw and West are smaller PFs with the quickness to recover. I actually want to see how the Spurs handle their death lineup. I think Aldridge/Diaw/Leonard/Manu/Parker is a good counter to that although you probably want Green in there for defense. I also wonder how something like Manu/Leonard/Anderson/Diaw/Aldridge lineup would fair due to their size and passing. Will be an interesting game for sure and I'm certain well see some lineup changing by both teams to feel each other out
I agree with this. Get him in foul trouble trying to slow down the bigger LaMarcus.Attack Raymond with LMA relentlessly... dude is overrated
Very nice op. The only other thing I might mention is manage minutes early to keep fresh guys in for 48. Make dubs work hard the entire game to wear them down.
Great take. This game is dangerous - the Spurs start really slow and this is at GSW. The Spurs could go down big early.
Nice read OV
Agreed. I think that Parker, Mills, Manu, Leonard, Aldridge would be an absolutely killer small lineup for the Spurs.
Given how hyped the Warriors and their fans are for this game, it's even money that the Spurs will go down big early. I don't think that's a big deal. The key is to play smart from the opening tip, and that lead will be gone by halftime.
Top notch analysis and write-up.
This is a game that really begs for Danny Green to be his old self. Transition defense is a big factor against the Warriors, and Danny is (or can be) one of the best solo transition defenders I've ever seen play. Missed 3P shots give the Dubs opportunities to get out and run, so if he's clanking 3P shots, it's going to put a lot of pressure on the Spurs to stop their fast break onslaught. The Spurs really need the old Danny Green.
Steph Curry's EFG% goes WAY up when he's shooting 3 pointers. He's shooting 55% of his shots from beyond the arc this season, compared to about 42% for the rest of his career. He's also shooting over 21% of his shots at the rim, compared to about 15% for his career. Those two things together are largely responsible for his transformation from dangerous guard to league MVP. Guarding Curry starts with running him off the 3P line, and ends with meeting him at the rim. Any shots he takes in between are a win - even if he makes them, you've forced him into a much lower EFG% situation. When the Spurs do foul him, foul the out of him. He's a great FT shooter, but his and-1's pile up a lot of "bonus" points. And limiting the Dub's points per possession, IMO, is key. (As Charles Barkley likes to say, "See if he can get his ass up of the floor and make the next one.")
Running against GS is important - but who's going to do it? Like it or not, Tony can't get out in front of a break much anymore. Danny on a fast break is a disaster. Kawhi gets most of his fast break points off of turnovers - that he causes. That means Manu, Patty, and Simmons are going to have to come out running at every opportunity.
One other thing that might help the Spurs get some fast break opportunities - David West. I noticed when he was in the staring lineup that when he gets a defensive rebound, he comes up looking to make a longer outlet pass than any of the Spurs other big men. The other bigs come up looking for the safe, nearby ball handler. But West's passes consistently wound up farther down court than anyone else's. The opposing defenders can't outrun the ball, and those longer starting passes are good opportunities to get numbers on the Warriors, and pick up cheap points. Even when it doesn't, it forces defenders to run that much harder to get back into the play.
Boris creates a lot of mismatches in the post. He's big enough to bully smaller defenders, and a good enough ball handler to go around and under a lot of bigger players. But I agree that LMA in the post is a key to the game. The Spurs are going to have to pay attention to their spacing, and make sure that they leave Aldridge room to operate. If help comes against him, it needs to come from distance. And when they do double him, even briefly, he's going to have to make the right pass early.
Tim hasn't been playing especially good lately - it's no secret. The Warriors are likely going to be helping off him, and daring him to knock down shots. He needs to knock down some shots. I would love to see him with 8 points in the first quarter. Not just because of the points, but because it would force them to abandon their game plan. It would also be great if he can dig into his lifetime bag of tricks, and suck out some early fouls on Bogut. His ability to meet Curry in the paint and at least alter his shot is also important, IMO, because the other guys on the floor are going to have to stay home. Sean laughs about Tim's waist-high blocks, but that ability could be big against the Warriors. I'm not willing to believe that Tim has lost that much between last season and this one. This game, they need him to look better than he has lately.
Great write up too.Top notch analysis and write-up.
This is a game that really begs for Danny Green to be his old self. Transition defense is a big factor against the Warriors, and Danny is (or can be) one of the best solo transition defenders I've ever seen play. Missed 3P shots give the Dubs opportunities to get out and run, so if he's clanking 3P shots, it's going to put a lot of pressure on the Spurs to stop their fast break onslaught. The Spurs really need the old Danny Green.
Steph Curry's EFG% goes WAY up when he's shooting 3 pointers. He's shooting 55% of his shots from beyond the arc this season, compared to about 42% for the rest of his career. He's also shooting over 21% of his shots at the rim, compared to about 15% for his career. Those two things together are largely responsible for his transformation from dangerous guard to league MVP. Guarding Curry starts with running him off the 3P line, and ends with meeting him at the rim. Any shots he takes in between are a win - even if he makes them, you've forced him into a much lower EFG% situation. When the Spurs do foul him, foul the out of him. He's a great FT shooter, but his and-1's pile up a lot of "bonus" points. And limiting the Dub's points per possession, IMO, is key. (As Charles Barkley likes to say, "See if he can get his ass up of the floor and make the next one.")
Running against GS is important - but who's going to do it? Like it or not, Tony can't get out in front of a break much anymore. Danny on a fast break is a disaster. Kawhi gets most of his fast break points off of turnovers - that he causes. That means Manu, Patty, and Simmons are going to have to come out running at every opportunity.
One other thing that might help the Spurs get some fast break opportunities - David West. I noticed when he was in the staring lineup that when he gets a defensive rebound, he comes up looking to make a longer outlet pass than any of the Spurs other big men. The other bigs come up looking for the safe, nearby ball handler. But West's passes consistently wound up farther down court than anyone else's. The opposing defenders can't outrun the ball, and those longer starting passes are good opportunities to get numbers on the Warriors, and pick up cheap points. Even when it doesn't, it forces defenders to run that much harder to get back into the play.
Boris creates a lot of mismatches in the post. He's big enough to bully smaller defenders, and a good enough ball handler to go around and under a lot of bigger players. But I agree that LMA in the post is a key to the game. The Spurs are going to have to pay attention to their spacing, and make sure that they leave Aldridge room to operate. If help comes against him, it needs to come from distance. And when they do double him, even briefly, he's going to have to make the right pass early.
Tim hasn't been playing especially good lately - it's no secret. The Warriors are likely going to be helping off him, and daring him to knock down shots. He needs to knock down some shots. I would love to see him with 8 points in the first quarter. Not just because of the points, but because it would force them to abandon their game plan. It would also be great if he can dig into his lifetime bag of tricks, and suck out some early fouls on Bogut. His ability to meet Curry in the paint and at least alter his shot is also important, IMO, because the other guys on the floor are going to have to stay home. Sean laughs about Tim's waist-high blocks, but that ability could be big against the Warriors. I'm not willing to believe that Tim has lost that much between last season and this one. This game, they need him to look better than he has lately.Nice thread here guys.
I like your point about West and the outlet passes. Also, LMA is probably key to this whole thing. No way Green should be able to guard him. And he's quick enough on defense to get out on the perimeter if needed.
No one said "most", dumbass. You were already owned on that. Don't try to reincarnate it.
Thanks for the points, as they give us things to look out for.
I think Pop will keep the rotation short. It will be interesting to watch how he plays his bigs. We know what our guards can do but how will the bigs work it out will be interesting. Pop will match whatever they are doing, or I don't know Pop. We won't see experimental lineups unless things are out of hand.
We have a good chance against them, but some streaky guys we have will need to pull through and ultimately it may even depend on whether we can make shots. I think Dubs is the kind of team you can't come in with a cold start, trying to get back from behind against them on the road is almost unheard of.
I am concerned about Patty vs. Livingston matchup, but our bench overall is better than theirs.
Good thread.
I hope our guys won't get carried away and try to run with the Warriors. Slowing the game down would likely benefit the Spurs. The difference in pace between the two teams is huge, and getting to be the team that gets the game to be played at its pace, respectively, could be key.
Solid takes, thanks. Agree with our guys needing to stay aggressive all game long. We match up well with them, but only if the effort is there. That said, you know they're fired up for this one. Bench mob needs to run a train on 'em, especially when Curry sits.
We need to tire Curry. Tony will have to have a good game and Pop rested him for a reason. I think it'd be good to have some physicality from the bench as well, we'll need a good game from West/Simmons/Patty.
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