Reply With Quote
We're gonna rest a lot of guys as soon as we have the #2 seed locked up, IMO... including Kawhi and LMA... so it's difficult to really know...
Pop certainly doesn't care about those numbers...
Wanted to survey the remaining 29 games to see where the Spurs end up historically for season wins.
As you may already know the most wins in Spurs franchise is 63 back in 2006.
I think that the spotlight shining on GS up above (Pop can still be under the radar) and OKC nipping at the heels from below will be factors in the Spurs both wanting and having to win more than 63 games.
To compare, there have been only 28 teams to win at least 63 games in a season
(8 teams have won more than 63 in the Duncan era)
The following reflects the number of teams and franchises in () to win 63 or more:
63+ wins - 28 teams (14 franchises)
64+ wins - 20 teams (12)
65+ wins - 17 teams (9)
66+ wins - 14 teams (9)
67+ wins - 10 teams (6)
68+ wins - 5 teams (4)
69+ wins - 3 teams (2)
72 wins - 1 team
So the Spurs can only lose 10 of 29 to best their franchise record.
Going 19-10 is highly likely if not definite.
10 games that most look like losses:
2/18 @ Clips (rust will be a factor - LA is playing well)
2/24 @ Utah (B2B after Sac)
2/27 @ Hou (always a tough matchup)
3/3 @ NO (B2B after home game vs tough Det team)
3/7 @ Indiana (1st night of B2B ...I'd still say 60/40 a win)
3/10 - 3/19 : 5 game home stand vs tough teams - Chi, OKC, Clips, Por, & GSW. There's likely one loss here if not two
3/26 @ OKC (B2B after home game vs Mem. A given L judging by history and opponent)
4/7 @ GS (assuming Spurs win on 3/19, GS will be highly motivated to hold serve here)
4/10 GS (at this stage GS may only have the Bulls record to be playing for, so it'll be up to how close OKC is for the 2nd seed. I'd say a loss here is likely)
Out of the 10 mentioned above, I think they will win 4. That combined with a couple WTF or resting players games, I will go with the final stretch finishing at 21-8.
The Spurs will be the 15th (16th?) team to win 66 games in NBA history, and the 10th franchise to reach that plateau.
We're gonna rest a lot of guys as soon as we have the #2 seed locked up, IMO... including Kawhi and LMA... so it's difficult to really know...
Pop certainly doesn't care about those numbers...
67-15
68-14.....I can see them going 23-6, the rest of the way...
This. Depends how safe #2 seed is.
Add 29 more wins to our current total...
We have a good chance to break it but really it depends on Pop resting guys (and health, so this one could be a jinx thread.)
Manu coming back towards the end of the season could mean that there will be some value in playing the good guys for a few minutes, perhaps all you need before the development crew cleans up. All in all though regular season records don't matter, getting to the postseason playing well and healthy is key.
Good chance? Lol..the spurs will break that record for sure. Question is if they are going to win more than 65.
But why not shave a win or two off for an unexpected L in the gimme games; or do you think those other games are that much in the bag?
There aren't many good teams in the NBA, this year, as anybody that has been paying attention knows..there are 3 great teams, 1 good team, about 4 above average teams that are good/great on some nights, and then a bunch of average to ty teams..
The schedule doesn't have too many Ls on it remaining, if we're speaking strictly on paper..it's entirely dependent on who Pop rests, tbh..if he plays Kawhi and Aldridge, even after the Spurs clinch #2(he probably won't, but we'll see), they could push 70..
Pelicans/Grizz/Chi/Rockets might be in complete tank mode after the trade deadline & Tim/Manu/Porker should be well rested for the stretch run. If Boris 2.0 makes an appearance then they can win 70.
They aren't losing to the Cripples without Blake/Rivers who have been Spurs killers & if the Jazz trade for Lawson it's going to up their chemistry.
23-6 sounds about right
Nice to see there's a lot of optimism here. Getting near 70 will be a memorable accomplishment.
Keep in mind just 5 years ago the Spurs were sitting at 44-9 through 53 games, only 1 loss behind this years team.
They proceeded to finish 17-12 and actually suffered a 6 game losing streak in late March.
But yes your point stands as barring injury I don't think they could suffer that many losses especially since 2016 roster is a lot deeper than 2011.
I did incorporate two unexpected losses. Out of the 10 "tough" games, I picked them to go 4-6. Two more Ls could come from what you call sub-par teams.
Contrary to popular belief and compared to other superficial fandom pages (Pounding the , Project Spurs, etc), this board stays relatively cool and in good mood after loses. If you can separate fantasy from reality you can see who's really trolling and exaggerating things.
It doesn't mean anything if we don't ring.
I doubt anyone disagrees with that. But it's really not the point of the thread.
I like the OPs numbers 66-16.
What do you have?
I need to amend mine to add 16 more wins.
Apples and Oranges come to mind.
66-16
Funny how the Worriers were 67-15 last season & it was supposed to be a once every 10 years type season for a Western Conference team.
65-17
Alocating losses from "tough" teams is not allocating losses from the expect win teams. Nay, that'd be its own separate statistical deviation in the model you presented.
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)
Posting Permissions
