That's the theory. It's also the reality. Repeating is really hard.
For instance, the greatest active coach, Gregg Popovich has NEVER repeated. Not even close. In five tries, the Spurs got to the 1st round (2015), WCF (2008), 2nd round (2006), 2nd round (2003), and 1st round (1999). This means of course the exact same is true for Tim Duncan, plus Tony Parker and Manu Ginobelli. The Bird-McHale-Parish Celticsnever repeated. The Julius Erving and Moses Malone (RIP)*76ersnever repeated.*Magic*Johnson, only repeated once. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, only one repeat. In the legendary 80's with Bird, Magic and Dr. J fighting it out, repeating was unheard of. In 1986, Coach*Pat Riley guaranteed a repeat*and pulled it off. The Kareem-MagicLakers*were the first team in 18 years to repeat.*The team reportedly pulled him off the stage the next year to prevent him from guaranteeing a threepeat, but he still officially copyrighted "Threepeat" in anticipation.Of the 50 Greatest NBA Players (1996 edition), 9 never won championships, 16 won only one, and only 11 total managed to repeat as champions. *Of the 10 Greatest NBA Coaches (same edition), only 5 of them repeated.The two most recent repeats have been the 2013 Heat, who were 10 seconds from losing to the Spurs in the Finals, and the 2010 Lakers, who were down double digits to the Celtics in Game 7. *There hasn't been a convincing repeat since the 2001 Lakers.How Often Do (Non-Phil Jackson)*Teams Repeat?
Here is a good sound bite I've just made up. No NBA team has EVER repeated without one of Michael Jordan,*Kobe Bryant,*LeBron James, Magic Johnson, Bill Russell, Isiah Thomas, Hakeem Olajuwon or George Mikan. (@NoWaveCoffee reminded me I forgot Hakeem in the first draft... I will do ten dream shakes as penance.)
Let's get into the actual numbers now.
Let's look at champions since the 1971 Finals. For the moment, let's exclude Phil Jackson coached teams, because as you probably know, he is a huge anomaly.
Since 1971, there have been 35 champions not coached by Phil.Only 4 of them (11 %) made it back to the finals and won.8 of them (23 %) actually made it back to the Finals, but then lost.So 12 out of 35 (34 %) made it back to the Finals, but those teams had a grim 4-8 record once there.