Is Duncan Done?

[Obstructed_View]

Waiting for a list of teams that wouldn't want a big who puts in 12 points, 11 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 blocks and a steal per 36 minutes while shooting 50 percent from the field. Also leads the league in defensive box plus minus, is second in defensive rating and is top 20 in win shares per 48.

[SouthernFried]

Duncan was the best player on the court against the Clippers in just last seasons playoffs. He looks slower and stiffer now, but I wonder how much of that is just not playing as much. Once you allow yourself to slow down...your body gets used it and its harder to come back. Could he force himself to go one more time? Not if he doesn't have to. He's ready to retire. Might be able to bring it in this years playoffs...but, I don't see he'll have the drive and desire to go thru it again next year.

He's done his job. Gave us 5 rings...and set us up for the next generation of Spurs Basketball. Nobody could ask more of anyone.

Then again...that off season can get boring

[Obstructed_View]

He is beyond finished as a key player

He's more of a leadership and coaching type right now

I feel sad watching him play the same way I feel when I watch KG. The difference is that Pops system hides some of it

Fail.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/...6_leaders.html

Duncan appearences: 7

KG appearances: 0

[GSH]

Waiting for a list of teams that wouldn't want a big who puts in 12 points, 11 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 blocks and a steal per 36 minutes while shooting 50 percent from the field. Also leads the league in defensive box plus minus, is second in defensive rating and is top 20 in win shares per 48.

You're one of the few people left here that I would try to have a legit basketball discussion with. You understand that I'm not saying, "He's done." But I would hate to see him finish his career the way Hakeem did. So:

You don't think he looks like nearly the player he was at the end of last season, do you? Assuming you agree that he isn't, what would another year worth of similar fall-off look like? He would still be better than most of what passes for bigs in the league, but I don't think he'd be Timmy anymore. Do you see it differently?

Here's a few things your examples left out:

His Points/100 Possessions tied the lowest of his career last year, at 24.6. This season, his Points/100 has fallen to 17.4. That's a HUGE drop.
His FTA/100 Possessions was 7.1 last season. This season it has fallen to 4.2 - also a HUGE drop. FTA/100 is one measure of how dominant a big is, because he's forcing defenders to foul him. Tim isn't doing that nearly as much this season. It's much less than any other point in his career.

I'm surprised that his rebounding numbers (per-36 or per-100 possessions) don't look that much worse than last year. It feels like he isn't bringing them down the way he used to. But, he is down to below 25 minutes per game. I don't think he could keep it up for much more minutes per game, without those Per- numbers starting to suffer. I know you know that Per-36 can get really misleading with players getting short minutes. He still has strong nights, but in more than 1/3 of his games this season, he's had 5 or fewer rebounds - and in at least half of those (more I think) he's put in 20 minutes or more.

Like I said at the beginning, I would hate to see him end his career like Hakeem. He doesn't have to be "done" for it to be time for him to step down. While he's still Tim Duncan.

[Dingle Barry]

2008

Yep..this forum definitely buried Tim back in 2008. Understandably so, he looked like ass. Un ing real that 8 years later he's still a major piece of the team, to say the least. What he did last playoffs was legendary. He didn't deserve to lose to the clips.

[Dingle Barry]

He sure doesn't look like the beast we saw in the playoffs against the Clippers last year. I can understand saying that he's been deferring on offense, and his Per36 rebounding isn't that much lower than last regular season. But he doesn't look like the player that held his own against Griffin and Jordan last Spring.

If he could play at exactly this level next season, then obviously he wouldn't be done. His presence in the middle is still very much an asset. If he were to fall off more between seasons? I think it would make me sad to see him come back.

I think the playoffs will tell us whether he still has more in the tank that he's been saving.

The thing is that he didn't look like that player last year either until the playoffs.

[SAGirl]

The thing is that he didn't look like that player last year either until the playoffs.

He had a few dominant games though. The triple OT, some duels with LMA of all ppl. He had much better games than this season with less help with Bonner starting next to him, Baynes, Tiago injured down season, Kawhi injured. He played a lot more minutes with a worse cast and Tony having his worst season of his career and Kawhi not the MVP candidate he is this season.

He's starting to decline like GSH said and bc blue will be 40 this time there will be no bounce back. He's definitely defeated father time for a long time but it catches us all. It might be it this season. I am less sure about him than I am Manu, but it co u l d be it. He's had 0 rebound games and 0 field goals this season. It's very unusual and he hasn't exactly been consistently efficient in the paint. I am not calling for him to ret, but it will not surprise me.

[Down Under]

He looked good until his knee injury so not sure how much he's pushing himself. Averaged 18/11 in playoffs last year so unless his knee has finally given in still has something in the tank.

[MoSpur]

I think he is done. This should be his last year. He still rebounds well and protects the rim well, but overall I think he's done, which makes me very sad to admit.

[Obstructed_View]

You're one of the few people left here that I would try to have a legit basketball discussion with. You understand that I'm not saying, "He's done." But I would hate to see him finish his career the way Hakeem did. So:

You don't think he looks like nearly the player he was at the end of last season, do you? Assuming you agree that he isn't, what would another year worth of similar fall-off look like? He would still be better than most of what passes for bigs in the league, but I don't think he'd be Timmy anymore. Do you see it differently?

Here's a few things your examples left out:

His Points/100 Possessions tied the lowest of his career last year, at 24.6. This season, his Points/100 has fallen to 17.4. That's a HUGE drop.
His FTA/100 Possessions was 7.1 last season. This season it has fallen to 4.2 - also a HUGE drop. FTA/100 is one measure of how dominant a big is, because he's forcing defenders to foul him. Tim isn't doing that nearly as much this season. It's much less than any other point in his career.

I'm surprised that his rebounding numbers (per-36 or per-100 possessions) don't look that much worse than last year. It feels like he isn't bringing them down the way he used to. But, he is down to below 25 minutes per game. I don't think he could keep it up for much more minutes per game, without those Per- numbers starting to suffer. I know you know that Per-36 can get really misleading with players getting short minutes. He still has strong nights, but in more than 1/3 of his games this season, he's had 5 or fewer rebounds - and in at least half of those (more I think) he's put in 20 minutes or more.

Like I said at the beginning, I would hate to see him end his career like Hakeem. He doesn't have to be "done" for it to be time for him to step down. While he's still Tim Duncan.

First of all, and I've said this before, I don't think going out like Hakeem would be bad. The worst player in the entire league is one of the best 500 basketball players on the planet. If I were fortunate enough to play in the NBA, I'd stay until I literally couldn't make a roster anymore. There's no shame in being too old to play a young man's game, and there damn sure are worse things than making between 2-5 million dollars to watch 82 NBA games from the bench. If he came back for league minimum next season I wouldn't have a problem with it. I fully expect Tim's career to end in the middle of the third quarter of some regular season game and his retirement announcement will be at his locker afterward.

I don't know how anyone could expect him to physically be the same player he was last year. Fortunately his game doesn't rely on a huge amount of speed or leaping ability. It's why I suggested he could play this long in a thread like this from several years back.

Timmy's given up on his own offense this year, and it makes sense to do it. There's simply no need to get beat up. There are other guys who can score, so his shot attempts are down. His assists are at an all-time high. He certainly hasn't given up anything on defense this year, as the defense has been ing amazing. If he can give you 25 minutes of real difference-making defense in a playoff series then you'd be insane not to take it. You'd also be insane not to have a backup plan, so it's just as well that Pop is playing a lot of combinations.

It's a long season, there's nothing to play for, this is statistically the best team he's ever been on and this is almost certainly his last chance to be a factor in a deep playoff run, at which point he'll go out on his shield.

[Tully365]

Easy now. I never said Duncan was done...I actually said I don't think he is.


But I've see people on this forum say otherwise..

Maybe you should've led the thread "I don't think Duncan is done." That would've removed doubts that you were implying he was.

[TrainOfThought5]

No, with two knee braces he's twice as powerful. Idiot. Casual fan. Cat lover.


Jokes aside this was a back to back game where pop pulled the whole team. We won't know if Duncan is done until the playoffs. It might just be a coincidence that Duncan's decline coincides the arrival of the best big man since Robinson and the maturing of kawhi. So maybe Duncan is pulling a Boris and the rest Is precautionary. Yes, evidence says Duncan can barely move and smart players will exploit that. But we know nothing about his actual pain and inflammation. We've been wrong before.

We've been wrong every single time since 2010.

[GSH]

First of all, and I've said this before, I don't think going out like Hakeem would be bad. The worst player in the entire league is one of the best 500 basketball players on the planet. If I were fortunate enough to play in the NBA, I'd stay until I literally couldn't make a roster anymore. There's no shame in being too old to play a young man's game, and there damn sure are worse things than making between 2-5 million dollars to watch 82 NBA games from the bench. If he came back for league minimum next season I wouldn't have a problem with it. I fully expect Tim's career to end in the middle of the third quarter of some regular season game and his retirement announcement will be at his locker afterward.

Damn... a reasonable point of view, reasonably stated.

I went to UofH when Hakeem was there. My dad was a professor, so I got to meet him when they were showing him around the campus the first time, and talk with him from time to time while we were in school. So naturally I followed his career. For me, it was painful watching him come off the bench, and playing as sort of a shadow of his younger imposing presence. But I can't deny that I might feel differently if I was actually able to make an NBA roster. If he wants to lace them up and play a reduced/different role, I'm sure the team wants to have him there. Fans should be too.

I feel like he had a pretty big drop-off between seasons, though some of the numbers don't look that drastic. No, there's no shame in it - it's just a fact of life and aging. But it's still a fact. Part of my point was that if he has a similar drop-off between this season and the next, he really will be a much different player, with a much different role.

I guess being "done" is up to him and the team. But he's getting much closer to being done as the force of nature we've loved watching for so long. If you're a fan (and you clearly are) I think that's got to be a little tough to see. I know it is for me. I keep seeing him get beaten by guys who he once would have dominated. And I can't help it, I find myself thinking, "Yeah, there was a time when Timmy would have wiped that smug look off your face." But the tone of this thread sounds like he's some kind of bum, and that's just painfully stupid.

Thanks for taking the time to make a thoughtful reply. I like to actually see a basketball discussion every once in a while. Maybe you changed my mind a little bit. Just take some time for it to soak in.

[skulls138]

Duncan was the best player on the court against the Clippers in just last seasons playoffs. He looks slower and stiffer now, but I wonder how much of that is just not playing as much. Once you allow yourself to slow down...your body gets used it and its harder to come back.

I wonder if its that knee injury but if its just not playing him enough, Pops needs to get him playing regularly a good bit before the playoffs, not right at the playoffs, so everyone is used to one another.

[ElNono]

'Done' is a relative term, tbh... he's still way better than Bogut, or young busts like Randle...

[Cowboys_Wear_Spurs]

Overall, NO. Against a team like the Dubs who go small, yes. Duncan is no longer an every play/team situation player.

But he was done against teams like the Dubs a couple of seasons ago. remember when Pop benched him against the Dubs and the Spurs came back from like 10 down at GS in the playoffs. Duncan just doesn't have the legs for it. But the Dubs are not your everyday team.

[coachmac87]

Maybe you should've led the thread "I don't think Duncan is done." That would've removed doubts that you were implying he was.

I asked a question. And then I gave my 2 cents. And clearly stated I didn't think he was..

But I made thread because I've seen two sides of the argument on this forum.

[T_L_P]

Yep..this forum definitely buried Tim back in 2008. Understandably so, he looked like ass. Un ing real that 8 years later he's still a major piece of the team, to say the least. What he did last playoffs was legendary. He didn't deserve to lose to the clips.

I think it shows how spoilt Spurs fans are.

Duncan 'playing like ass' was a 19/11/3/3/ season with a 25 PER and over 10 Win Shares, and (iirc) he was top 10 in RAPM.

Then in the Playoffs 20/15/3.

We can't say Duncan's done until the Playoffs. He stepped up big time last year against the Clippers, who's to say he won't again?

[YGWHI]

Not sure why people think he's done when his defensive numbers are the best in the league.

The contract of a PF/C with those stats would be too expensive, it's likely the Spurs couldn't afford to have that type of defensive big in their roster this season with LMA/Kawhi/Parker deals.

[NameLess Scrub]

that's duncan's scouting report out of high school

Funny thing, I looked up videos of him as a rookie a while ago, and he looked to me like he jumped higher when making the post moves to score. It seemed like part of his physical dominance.

I think Timmy is very close to done, either physically or mentally.
But we probably won't know until the playoffs when he tries harder.

[Dingle Barry]

I think it shows how spoilt Spurs fans are.

Duncan 'playing like ass' was a 19/11/3/3/ season with a 25 PER and over 10 Win Shares, and (iirc) he was top 10 in RAPM.

Then in the Playoffs 20/15/3.

We can't say Duncan's done until the Playoffs. He stepped up big time last year against the Clippers, who's to say he won't again?

Well , I was thinking the Grizzlies series, 2011, not 2008. Not sure how I was so far off on that one.

[Benoit]

Spur fans like to laugh at Kobes season but ignore that hes carrying a bunch of scrubs as the lead guy with Byron as coach lmao

Duncan just shoots open layups and rests every other game yet still looks terrible

Imagine if he had to carry a team like Kobe is asked to do lmao he would have retired after 1 month

[coachmac87]

Spur fans like to laugh at Kobes season but ignore that hes carrying a bunch of scrubs as the lead guy with Byron as coach lmao

Duncan just shoots open layups and rests every other game yet still looks terrible

Imagine if he had to carry a team like Kobe is asked to do lmao he would have retired after 1 month

Kobe is to blame to have ty teammates and a coach tbh...

[GSH]

Spur fans like to laugh at Kobes season but ignore that hes carrying a bunch of scrubs as the lead guy with Byron as coach lmao

Duncan just shoots open layups and rests every other game yet still looks terrible

Imagine if he had to carry a team like Kobe is asked to do lmao he would have retired after 1 month

Well and he's done a fine job of leading them to a 15-59 record, too. Second worst record in the league, only better than Philly who is fielding a Division II college team.

And what a leader he is: Third best total points, Third best total assists, and the Twelfth best EFG%. That's pretty ing impressive on a team full of scrubs.

He's shooting .286 from the 3P line, but he's still shot almost 400 of them. So you have to admire him for not shooting open layups, like Duncan.

But the best part of his leadership. I mean the very best part - is his ORtg of 95 and his DRtg of 113. Second worst on the ty team, and only slightly better than the corpse of Metta World Peace. Isn't it tough to lead when the team scores fewer points, and gives up more points to other teams, when you are on the floor?

Hey, but at least he didn't retire after 1 month, like Duncan would have... right? Because that's how Laker fans measure leadership.

[SilverSpur]

If he is or isn't let the man be and thank him for the five rings ( should be 6 )