His base doesn't have to show up to the extent that it has for him thus far in the general election, since the electoral college will determine who wins. The ones that do will inevitably vote for the Republican ticket, and the electoral college will follow suit.
There is a rule 40 that RNC put in to stop a situation like Ron Paul (having to win 8 states). Unfortunately for them, that same rule goes against Kasich who has won only one state. Voters will revolt if the nominee is anyone other than Trump or Cruz. And if Cruz stays low (600s) and Trump almost doubles him but under 1237, most voters will think that Trump should get it. Trump has to clinch on 1st ballot as Cruz will win 2nd or later ballots.
You're saying the Republican base (that has overwhelmingly voted for Trump and Cruz head of Kasich, Rubio, Bush, and Walker) doesn't have to show up to vote to get a Republican elected?
lol citing a self-serving rule that self-serving politicians put into place as if that means anything. They'll do whatever they have to do, and I've already explained what they have to do. If they have to flip-flop on "rule 40", then they'll do it, and it won't be the first or last time they've done that. , it's basically under their job description.
Trump isn't running as an independent or on some other party ticket, so Kasich will get it. Laws in Ohio (Kasich's state) basically prevent a guy who's already lost a primary from going out and creating a third party. I'd be shocked if the Ohio Supreme Court didn't rule in Kasich's favor if it ever came to that. There's another law preventing someone from being affiliated with another party from then running as an Independent, and Trump is a registered Republican and GOP primary nominee. Beyond that, he's a self-stated Republican. Whatever argument you want to make in regards to those laws (and other states have similar ones too), in Kasich's state of Ohio you may as well wipe your ass with them.
In the states where Trump is winning, a large majority of those states, and maybe even all of them, are dark, dark red. The blue states where he enjoys some support but are mostly Democrat, they wouldn't carry him in the general election anyway, and with or without the support of Trump's voters in red states, they'll have enough support to stay red, as they usually always have, even with a boring, stale Republican candidate like Romney.
What makes things different for Kasich isn't that he's THAT different than Romney, but that he polls against Hillary Clinton very well because Hillary Clinton is a ty candidate (whereas Obama was not, at least according to polls, since he consistently beat Romney in them) and because the DNC has tried to rig the primary in her favor despite that fact. Several states Obama won by relatively small margins (eg Iowa, Colorado, Ohio) could very conceivably go to Kasich in a general election against Clinton provided the polls stay the same.
I don't think Kasich can win an election without the Republican base, and I'm betting the Republican base will just stay home in large numbers if the party picks a guy that none of them voted for. I think they're done as a party if they don't nominate either Trump or Cruz, the Republican voters have shot down every attempt the party has tried to make people buy into the party's preferred candidates. Walker, Bush, Rubio, Kasich is just another. Clear Channel and Fox News have really poisoned the party with their demands for far right ideological purity and now we're seeing the consequences when their voters want a loon like Cruz.
I mean the independents matter hugely in a typical election where you still have your base behind you, but I don't think that'll be the case with Kasich.
"Clear Channel and Fox News have really poisoned the party"
CC/iHearRadio is bankrupt, in $20B debt thanks to Bain Capital financial predators, and advertiser-abandoned Limp Balls' obscene contract is up for renewal.
Both MSNBC and CNN are significantly up overall and esp with the younger set, as Fox becomes as stagnant as its old, white, rural, racist, ignorant, re-districted/gerrymandered, low-wage base.
I just see him as having more of a chance, but we'll find out.
As far as Fox News (never heard of Clear Channel so I can't comment), I agree 100%. There's two things that they've done that as you say poison/destroy the Republican Party:
1. You can still be conservative and accept established facts or strongly supported beliefs that the Democrats also accept. You can just choose to tackle them in different, rational & conservative ways. Instead of doing that they've chose not to accept these facts/strongly supported beliefs at all. That's why there's so much Congressional gridlock. It's really a horrible strategy. In that particular sense, I don't even think you can call them "far right" or conservative, more than just stupid. Simply taking an hetical positions to Democrats doesn't make you a Conservative, it just makes you anti-Democrat. Why you take them does.
2. They've not only carried out the battles the wrong way ^^^, they've picked the wrong ones, or created ones. I don't even need to elaborate on this, just turn on Fox News and you'll see.
By Clear Channel I mean Rush Limbaugh, Glenn Beck, Hannity, etc. Thank you Red McCombs for that bull .
Kasich isn't "grownup". He a radical rightwingnut extremist like the rest of them.
The Best Reporting on John Kasich Through the Years
Ohio Gov. John Kasich’s home-state paper, the Cleveland Plain Dealer, has long noted his mix-and-match style.
He is a proud fiscal conservative who tried to roll back the power of public unions but also bucked his party on Obamacare.
He fought to reinstate the death penalty while filling his public appearances with pop-culture references toPearl Jam or the Rolling Stones.
He presents himself as the hugging, compassionate Republican in the presidential race, but was known in Congress for his prickly temper and volatility – and he once got kicked off the stage at a Grateful Dead concert.
some other Ohio lawmakers tried to avoid sitting next to him on flights home.
GOP pollster Frank Luntz called him the “Woody Harrelson of Congress.”
His tax cuts and budgeting, however, came at the expense of local governments:
70 cities have lost at least $1 million per year in state funding since Kasich took office in 2011.
Specifically, Kasich’s elimination of Ohio’s estate tax, reduction of the Local Government Fund, and
phasing out reimbursements to help communities cope with a 2005 rollback of property taxes
cost Cleveland, Columbus and Cincinnati more than $20 million each per year. The overall effect of the cuts has been mixed.
After Kasich became governor, several of his best friends became Ohio’s new go-to lobbyists, drawing criticism that they were cashing in. Kasich was accused of hypocrisy after campaigning against special interests.
One of Kasich’s signature programs as governor is JobsOhio, a privatized development agency created to bring jobs to the state that replaced a public model. But the agency has been plagued with allegations of extravagant spending—including using public money to pay private employees—and complaints by Democrats about conflicts of interest. A 2013 law largely exempted JobsOhio from public audits.
Kasich and Ohio’s Republican leadership sought to roll back some rights and powers of unionized public workers, but the unions collected nearly a million signatures in support of holding a statewide referendum on the law. Kasich’s measure went down to defeat in 2011 by nearly a 2-to–1 margin.
His message of optimism and his mellow demeanor on the trail surprised those who remembered him as a man who ran hot-and-cold, called out-of-state rivals “wackadoodles,” and derided a cop as an “idiot” for pulling him over (Kasich later apologized to the officer).
The GOP establishment was reluctant to embrace him—some because they remember his temper, some because he expanded Medicaid, but primarily because they didn’t see him as a viable candidate. In the Republican primaries, Kasich to date has only won his home state of Ohio.
https://www.propublica.org/article/t...ent=1461153340
Maybe he'll accept being "a pitcher of warm spit"
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