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Im of the exact same thought process. Spurs win the first 2 games at home, it will be a short series. We screw up and give away game 1, we are in deep trouble. We must win game 1.
Spurs meet OKC in another playoff match up and as of now, these are the two best and healthiest teams left in the West.
I'm not going to cite history in the form of former playoff battles (Spurs are 1-1 in modern playoff history vs OKC) & I'm not going to worry about the regular season against them because it was so crazy you couldn't take much from the raw results.
Instead I want to focus on who these teams are up to today. What the stats tell us about them and what I think they mean with regards to who wins the series and why. I'll start with OKC:
OKC:
Pace: 99.4
Off Efficiency: 109.9
Def Efficiency: 103.0
Eff FG%: 52.4%
Point Differential: +7.3 Points Per Game
OKC is an elite team. Unlike the Memphis series, this series will be an adjustment and a battle for pace. Memphis & SA played at basically the exact same pace all year so there was no adjustment there for the Spurs. It was a comfortable pace for them vs Memphis. OKC however plays at a top 10 pace in the league - they like to get up and go, create a lot of possessions and what makes them elite is their ability to play a quicker than average pace at an elite offensive efficiency rate.
By most offensive efficiency metrics, OKC is a top 2-3 team with regards to efficiency. Combine that with a quick pace and you get an explosive offensive team that can test the best of defenses and wear you down if you allow them to play their game.
They are no fluke and their offensive fire power propelled them this season to the tune of the 3rd best point differential in the league.
They rely heavily on a few areas: Free Throws & Rebounding with the latter being their best attribute. OKC is the number one team in the league in rebounding differential at +8.4. To put that in context, the 2nd place team (Pistons) has a rebounding differential of +3.8. They own the offensive glass with their explosive athletes and bigs (Russ + Ibaka/Kanter/Adams) and when you combine efficient scoring with 2nd chance points you get the 2nd best offense in the league.
Free throw attempts come as no surprise to anyone either. They are a top 10 team in Free Throws Attempted so that's a big part of their offense.
Spurs:
Pace: 95.7
Off Efficiency: 108.4
Def Efficiency: 96.6
Eff FG%: 52.6%
Point Differential: +10.6
San Antonio is an elite-er team. I won't go into as much detail on SA because you're all Spurs fans and have seen this, but obviously SA wins in very different, but similar ways as well. SA controls pace and plays at a slower pace, but very, very efficiently. SA (outside of the slippage we saw towards the end of the year) has been every bit as good as OKC on offense from an efficiency perspective. OKC scores more, but that's because of the pace they play at.
Spurs are careful with their possessions. Unlike OKC which is top 3 in TO's, SA is near the bottom in TO's. Spurs rely on suffocating defense, especially in the first half of games, to build leads then their offensive efficiency in the 2nd half takes over to the tune of the 2nd best point differential in the league.
Spurs have relied less & less on 3's, but the good news is SA is still one of the better 3PT shooting teams in the league with regards to percentage while OKC is a bottom third team there.
Basically, Spurs pin you down with defense and manufacture about as good of looks as you can hope for and make you pay with execution. They don't foul you, they rebound on the defensive end about as good as anyone & then value their possessions which is key when you play a slower pace.
What Does It All Mean / Series Prediction
At the end of the day it's about what the stats tell you & how the strengths and weaknesses of each team dictate the outcome of the series. From what I can see, I think this is how it will play out:
Many of OKC's strengths & what they rely on to win (Offensive Rebounding & Free Throw Attempts) are areas of supreme strength for SA. While OKC is the best offensive rebounding team in the league, SA is .3 rebounds away from being the best defensive rebounding team in the league.
Same goes with the free throws. OKC relies on and has been great at getting free throws, but this Spurs team again is stingy there; they are the number one team in the league with regards to free throw attempts against them.
Where things get dicey is in the area of pace and scoring. OKC is a top heavy team without a lot of depth but they have two stars that are capable of going nuclear and playing a ton of minutes. The good news again is SA with Danny/Kawhi have the two best players you could hope for to match up against them and make life difficult.
Westbrook has done pretty well vs SA so far. Against SA, he's shot above his season average (45%FG season, 47% FG against SA) and SA was in the top 12 for him in both FGM & FGA. SA was also top 10 for Westbrook with regards to +/- against opponent.
Durant however has not fared as well. Against the Spurs he shot worse than his season average (50% season, 47% FG against SA) and SA was in the middle of the pack for both FGM & FGA. Durant was barely a positive for OKC with regards to +/- (Durant ranked 23rd against SA for +/-).
So those two can still score although SA has very good wing defenders. I think that if SA can effectively rebound and keep OKC off the line (under their season averages) it's going to be tough for Durant/Westbrook to manufacture enough points to beat San Antonio. Durant/Westbrook would probably need to average 65+ points against SA to have a shot and can they do that against two great defenders + great defensive team?
If they score 65PPG, they will probably need another 30 from their supporting cast to win and that's where they might find it tough sledding with a lack of depth and 3PT shooting. Not to mention limited possessions due to TO's and less offensive rebounding.
Obviously, SA has to create good looks and they have to hit. If SA goes cold, they are going to struggle vs anyone, but especially OKC. SAs offense for the most part has been just as good (just different) but their defense has been levels better than OKC's.
Most areas where OKC excels, Spurs have a reasonable shot at neutralizing that. While I have concerns about Tony Parker, San Antonio's 3PT shooting & the overall offense at times, I see enough to be confident in SA winning this series.
I need to see the offense look good in the first two games before really knowing where SA stands coming out of the Memphis series, but:
Spurs in 6 (but is SA wins their first two games, then SA in 5.)
Last edited by DPG21920; 04-26-2016 at 05:04 PM.
Im of the exact same thought process. Spurs win the first 2 games at home, it will be a short series. We screw up and give away game 1, we are in deep trouble. We must win game 1.
I agree game one is a must for us to set the tone. Green better bring his big boy panties and show up.
spurs in 5
Some interesting side notes and what I'm hoping people can add in this thread is who on both teams they think will be x-factors & what they see happening with certain players.
For example, something to explore more is how LMA fared vs OKC. In looking at season splits vs teams, LMA didn't do so well against OKC.
They were one of the best teams against LMA with regards to FG% (48% vs OKC which was the 7th worst). He still did OK, but much like Durant vs SA, OKC was still a tougher opponent than most. Not only did LMA not make as many shots vs OKC as other opponents, he really shot a lot less vs OKC as well (go hand in hand). Is that scheme? Is that they defend him much better? Comfort level?
With the regular season being so weird vs OKC, hard to tell, but you would have to think he's going to be key on both ends.
If SA has great defenders, why does Westbrook score above his average against us? Who guards him? Danny or Kwahi?
I think San Antonio CAN guard those two...or, at least slow them down. Much easier than OK can guard our 2. And you never know who on the "committee" is gonna show up to help offensively. San Antonio has more (quan y wise) offensive weapons. Our second unit can actually be better than our first unit at times. If we play as a team, we will win. If everyone goes cold and it's just LMA and Kawhi scoring...it will be difficult.
X-Factors for Spurs: Manu, Patty, Parker, Diaw. I don't expect much offense from Green, so he better be a Defensive monster out there. And you never know...Duncan may just show up
tbh, hate to bring it up because I've not complained about it pretty much all season, but fouls are going to be a biggie in this series. Especially on the road.
The Spurs love to pack the paint, but athletic guys like Westbrook will storm in anyways, and whether the whistle blows or not will have an impact, IMO.
Other than that, I think we can take them, provided we're healthy.
Two things: 1. I think both will guard him at times. 2. I included the numbers from the regular season but you have to apply context. Who was playing in those games? Who was guarding him? Etc..it was a wacky regular season series vs OKC with regards to lineups/guys sitting.
This is a big point and one I did not really bring up (Because with OKC's lack of depth and ability of their top guys to play huge minutes, I think bench is negated some) but SA has the best bench in the league while OKC is very middle of the road. If OKC's bench can't get going it's going to place so much burden on Durant/Westbrook against the best defense in the league.I think San Antonio CAN guard those two...or, at least slow them down. Much easier than OK can guard our 2. And you never know who on the "committee" is gonna show up to help offensively. San Antonio has more (quan y wise) offensive weapons. Our second unit can actually be better than our first unit at times. If we play as a team, we will win. If everyone goes cold and it's just LMA and Kawhi scoring...it will be difficult.
Green can be worth his weight in gold on defense in this series. If he can help out with Durant and play good stretches on WB SA has a great shot. If he's hitting 3's then Spurs beat up on OKC. The bench can help, I just don't know how effective they will be going up against Durant/WB which they will likely be doing since those dudes play a ton of minutes.X-Factors for Spurs: Manu, Patty, Parker, Diaw. I don't expect much offense from Green, so he better be a Defensive monster out there. And you never know...Duncan may just show up
Sweep.
Nice write up.I think Spurs in 5
Great Write up!!
Excellent point. Our bench can be great, especially offensively. Our bench is better than anyone else's bench. But, if they are forced to play against Durant and Westbrook because those guys don't come out...well, that could decide the game. Something to watch, eh?
During the Memphis series i said that Spurs in 4 because if we lost one game to Memphis then we were not going to win the championship.
Again, Spurs should win in 5 or 6, if not, they are not going to win the championship and i dont care about a different scenario other than the Spurs winning it all.
Should win in 5.
And tbh if anybody picks OKC to win the series it's because they want them to win and not analyzing at all lol. Stats and home court show Spurs should be an easy favorite
Basically, here is 3 barometers to look for IMO:
Rebounding: 11 offensive rebounds for OKC or less
Free Throws: 20 free throws attempted for OKC or less
Turn Overs: 12 turn overs for SA or less
If the Spurs get 0 of those 3, they lose the game.
If the Spurs get 1 of those 3, they lose a close game.
If the Spurs get 2 of those 3, they win the game.
If the Spurs get 3 of those 3, they win the game big.
If the bigs for OKC get in a groove rebounding and running off of defensive rebounds, it will be trouble. Spurs have to hit open looks so they have time to set up on defense. LMA/Tim are going to have a hard time keeping up with Russ/Durant pushing it off of misses and the OKC bigs all being able to run like champs.
This is also a series where people should not be afraid to double. They don't have a lot of shooters so muck things up and make life hard.
Westbrook is hard to officiate because he's a damn blur rushing to the rim
Nice post. The thing I like about this series that heavily favors the Spurs is decision making at the end of games. While Westbrook and KD are fantastic players, if it's close, I can see bad possessions by the Thunder losing games.
In the last couple minutes of a close game, you know who's going to get the ball for the Thunder, so they are easier to guard. For the Spurs, there are just more options, and for the most part, better decision makers all the way around.
Spurs in 6.
Our second unit really moves the ball well, but they're small.
Gonna be a physical series
If anyone can post a picture of OKC's defensive shot chart, I would very much appreciate it (regular season)
FTT.
Spurs in 6.
Nice writeup, tbh.
Only one "we" throughout this entire post and it was used correctly, too. Excellent.
Kane is clapping. Hard.
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