Spurs v OKC: Tale of the Tape & Series Prediction

[Ocotillo]

My concern is coming out without the intensity required due to playing a depleted Memphis team. Cognitively, they are smart enough to know better but it's still hard to step up after the rest and an easier series. As an earlier post said, lose game 1 and it's seven game series. I dislike the OKC guys but they are damn good.

[Amuseddaysleeper]

I think too many think this will be easier than it will be in actuality.

As I've talked about ad nauseam the past few years, these assholes play with supreme confidence against the Spurs and unfortunately, it's not reciprocated, though having two in their prime stars, one of whom is at the level of the Thunder's two, should help with the latter.

On top of that, it's been obvious for years that they're jealous of the Spurs, dislike them and would love nothing more than to beat them. Rightly or wrongly, I'm sure they feel that had Westbrook been healthy throughout the playoffs in '13 and Ibaka played the first two games of the WCF in '14, they'd have been in the Finals. Throw in the possibility of Durant leaving and their motivation will be sky high. Not that the Spurs' won't be, for obvious reasons, but still.

The numbers might point to Spurs in 6, but I've seen too many alarming signs from this team (especially on the road) to feel confident in that, so I'll go Spurs in 7. Thunder in 6 wouldn't shock me though.

Agreed 100%. Reminds me of the over confidence a lot of fans had last year going into the Clipper series. Even minor players like Payne can be a headache for the Spurs if they get playing time.

[DPG21920]

Agreed 100%. Reminds me of the over confidence a lot of fans had last year going into the Clipper series. Even minor players like Payne can be a headache for the Spurs if they get playing time.

Well I hope my post didn't come off as over confident. I think the Spurs will and should win, but OKC is an elite team. It's just that what they do well, the Spurs typically defend well which bodes well while eating beef Wellington

[will_spurs]

For example, something to explore more is how LMA fared vs OKC. In looking at season splits vs teams, LMA didn't do so well against OKC.

It's very hard to learn anything of value from the splits against OKC because out of the 4 games we played against them:
- the 1st one was the 1st game of the season and the team wasn't clicking (especially LMA for obvious reasons)
- the 2nd game (early March) was the only really compe ive one and LMA played well (24 & 9 on .643 shooting)
- the 3rd game (late March) Pop decided to tank with Kawhi injured and resting LMA and Tony
- the 4th game was the meaningless penultimate game of the season, LMA played only 19 minutes

So all in all I wouldn't place a lot of weight on Westbrook did well, Durant and LMA not so much, as only one game was a truly representative game.

Re: X-Factors for OKC I'd say Steven Adams and the refs. I could easily see the refs extending the series, especially this way. Actually as counter-intuitive as it sounds I think if the Spurs are 2-0 then they probably come back from OKC 2-2, whereas if they are 1-1 they have a better chance of coming back 3-1. The NBA just lost the Clippers and a significant part of the Warriors. I don't think they will allow the Spurs to win in 4 or 5 games, especially against the "superstars" darlings of the NBA.

For the Spurs it's pretty much always the same: Parker, Green and Mills' shooting, West/Diaw as "bigs", etc.

[Sean Cagney]

OKC in crunch time blows. Keep it tight and the game is yours.

Someone I talked to the other night was mentioning how bad they were down the stretch in 4 Q's, hopefully Westbrook chucks and keeps the ball out of Durants hands.

[skulls138]

Time for revenge on what KD said about KL in offseason!

[will_spurs]

Someone I talked to the other night was mentioning how bad they were down the stretch in 4 Q's, hopefully Westbrook chucks and keeps the ball out of Durants hands.

There was damning stat posted towards the end of the season re: OKC and 4th quarters. Can't remember it exactly but they were the worst team when leading (or trailing?) when entering the 4th Q.

From ESPN Power Rankings during the 24 weeks of the season: http://espn.go.com/nba/team/rankings...a-city-thunder

(Week 6) The Thunder, though, can't escape the fact that their fourth-quarter execution has frankly been as spotty as ever and, worse, doesn't seem to be getting any better.

(Week 19) OKC is tied with lowly Philly for the league lead in games lost (10) when entering the fourth quarter with a lead.

(Week 20) The Thunder have led entering the fourth quarter in eight consecutive games, yet we're guessing you're fairly aware by now that they've only won three of them. Defense continues to be the biggest culprit, but there's no dodging the fact that Russell Westbrook's late-game struggles are an issue, too. Russ, for example, is 0-for-11 on 3s in the fourth quarter and OTin those eight games.

(Week 23) Through the first three quarters of games, OKC is plus-232 for the season in the first, plus-107 in the second and plus-208 in the third, better scoring margins than any team other than Golden State and San Antonio. Yet in the fourth quarter, thanks to the Thunder's well-chronicled struggle to hold leads, they're stunningly minus-6.

[YGWHI]

If waiters heats up it will be because Parker and Mills are guarding him. But because it's the playoffs, Waiters won't touch the ball. Durant and Westbrook will hog the ball for 40+ minutes.

But Parker and Mills will guard him, Pop can't hide them on defense in this series. At some point he'll put Parker on Roberson but Mills will defend Waiters in the 2nd unit.

Waiters won the game for them in OKC against us attacking Parker, and did a good job against Mavs in game 4 in playoffs.

He'll score a lot...Hopefully, our bench, Mills, Boris, Manu, DWest will match his scoring and Kanter's.

[YGWHI]

MVPs:
Last time OKC had (in theory) the best player on the court. Now not so much. Neither Durant or Westbrook are gonna be better than Kawhi in this Series. Spurs wings matchup very well with those two and as with Miami, there's something about OKC that Kawhi loves to up his game.

Kawhi was -without doubt- the best Spurs player against OKC this season. On both ends. But all those rumours saying the Spurs want to sign a player in his position, he will have to adapt his game to other position, will lose opportunities to improve with the ball in his hands 'cause Durant, his family and friends talking about it...
All those things can affect his performance, they can make him feel the Spurs underestimate his game...After all, nobody knows the nature and the processes of Kawhi's inconscient.

[Amuseddaysleeper]

Well I hope my post didn't come off as over confident. I think the Spurs will and should win, but OKC is an elite team. It's just that what they do well, the Spurs typically defend well which bodes well while eating beef Wellington

Your post was solid DPG21920, at least you backed up why you feel the Spurs would win. Just seems like a lot of the other fans are a bit y in regards to this matchup but I suppose that's bound to happen when your team wins 67 games.

I also think Spurs in 6, but I feel awfully nervous about this series, especially when it comes to dealing with OKC's bigs. A much as people talk Durant and Westbrook, I feel like their roleplayers always play with extreme confidence against us.

I also think it'll be a bit jarring going from a D-league team in the Grizzlies to an elite team in OKC. If it's split after two games in SA it's going to be an awfully long series I fear.

But again, great write up buddy

[T Park]

I'm working wondering if Pop is going to go Tayshaun Prince on Robertson. Just exaggerating everything to force and bait him into shooting.

I don't see how a team with a non shooter survives against a focused Spurs team.

Having someone Parker can double off of, and just not even worry about is killer.

What's his move? Bring in Foye? Waiters?

[T Park]

Your post was solid DPG21920, at least you backed up why you feel the Spurs would win. Just seems like a lot of the other fans are a bit y in regards to this matchup but I suppose that's bound to happen when your team wins 67 games.

I also think Spurs in 6, but I feel awfully nervous about this series, especially when it comes to dealing with OKC's bigs. A much as people talk Durant and Westbrook, I feel like their roleplayers always play with extreme confidence against us.

I also think it'll be a bit jarring going from a D-league team in the Grizzlies to an elite team in OKC. If it's split after two games in SA it's going to be an awfully long series I fear.

But again, great write up buddy

Yeah I'm really worried about traffic cone Kanter.....

[TheDoctor]

Kawhi was -without doubt- the best Spurs player against OKC this season. On both ends. But all those rumours saying the Spurs want to sign a player in his position, he will have to adapt his game to other position, will lose opportunities to improve with the ball in his hands 'cause Durant, his family and friends talking about it...
All those things can affect his performance, they can make him feel the Spurs underestimate his game...After all, nobody knows the nature and the processes of Kawhi's inconscient.

Nobody outside the Spurs you mean. Anyway, don't you think PATFO would ask Tim, Tony, Manu, Kawhi & LMA what they think about the possible signing first? Plus I really doubt Kawhi has any type of problem with the signing of a FA with KD's caliber which can help the team (from the get go) to increase the odds of winning more championships. Even if said FA plays the same position, Kawhi don't care much about individual recognition, but Championships. The way I see it, KD and Kawhi can easily swap positions between SG and SF. The defense should continue to work as efficient. KD's length is an asset and he's quick enough to guard SGs.

[itsamanuthree]

Thanks OP!

[cd021]

I think the series will come down to who's front court is more productive, both teams probably have the best front court rotations in the NBA.

Durant
Ibaka
Adams
Kanter
Collison

Vs.
Leonard
Duncan
Aldridge
Diaw
West
Boban

The key difference is that the Spurs FC players are more interchangeable and can be effective on both ends of the floor. Duncan can play 32 mpg against the Thunder, if necessary, which bodes well for the Spurs, who like to play big.

If OKC goes small with KD and Ibaka, the Spurs can match with Diaw and Aldridge and force KD to either guard Diaw in the post or expend energy on checking Leonard late in games.

LMA seems to overpower Ibaka in the post, I would go to that match up steadily. I think that there is an added benefit of if the spurs get out to a good start or take a solid lead, that KD and Westbrook will focus on getting their shots as opposed to helping get Ibaka open looks.

Spurs had alot of success in the first home game vs OKC with the West Aldridge lineup (with is an excellent offensive pairing) againt OKC, it would be interesting to see how that pairing fairs in this series.

[DPG21920]

Definitely - the front courts are going to be hypercritical on both ends. LMA dominating Ibaka would go a long way for the Spurs to win in 5.

Defensively, it's going to be tough for Tim/LMA if OKC gets in transition a lot. OKC big are all pretty incredible at running the floor. They all work hard, they are all agile & know exactly where to go in transition.

[DaBears]

Spurs should take this in 6.. I believe Green/Simmons will match up w/RW .. When tony is on the court he'll guard Roberson.. Khawi on KD.. TD matches up w/ Adams LAM on SI...
" THIS SERIES CANNOT START SOON ENOUGH "

[DPG21920]

It will be interesting to see how close the series mirrors the "barometers" I mentioned. Obviously, I pulled them somewhat out of my butt because while I looked at the regular season results and how the "barometers" ended up in the W's & L's, I know you can't take anything from the regular season.

[TheDoctor]

It will be interesting to see how close the series mirrors the "barometers" I mentioned. Obviously, I pulled them somewhat out of my butt because while I looked at the regular season results and how the "barometers" ended up in the W's & L's, I know you can't take anything from the regular season.

Indeed. Spurs/Thunder regular season numbers are . Advance stats have Andre Miller as our best player in those games (he only played 19mins tho). But IIRC those same numbers put David West as our 2nd best player.

[YGWHI]

I really doubt Kawhi has any type of problem with the signing of a FA with KD's caliber which can help the team (from the get go) to increase the odds of winning more championships.

Kawhi said he wants to play at MVP level on both ends, he also knows there are areas of his offensive game he needs to improve, and with Durant on the team, he won't have the opportunity to have the ball in his balls that much to take the next step on offense.

LMA, 30 years old, signed with the Spurs after several seasons being "the man" in Portland...he didn't care about it this season.

But not sure that a 24 years old player, who needs to improve his game, to have more seasons as the main guy to get better, is ready to take a back seat in order to sign other player. A thing like that can bother him/any young player.

[YGWHI]

I really doubt Kawhi has any type of problem with the signing of a FA with KD's caliber

Not just Kawhi. This rumor can make other Spurs players to feel expendable, they're real pros and know the business, but they also know that at least two or three of our guys will be traded in order to sign KD. It's human nature, no one likes to feel replaceable or insecure about future.

A playoffs series against OKC isn't the best time to have those negative feelings...just hate "the timming" of Lowe's article.

[TheDoctor]

Kawhi said he wants to play at MVP level on both ends, he also knows there are areas of his offensive game he needs to improve, and with Durant on the team, he won't have the opportunity to have the ball in his balls that much to take the next step on offense.

LMA, 30 years old, signed with the Spurs after several seasons being "the man" in Portland...he didn't care about it this season.

But not sure that a 24 years old player...

Yup, definitely you aren't.

Not just Kawhi. This rumor can make other Spurs players to feel expendable, they're real pros and know the business...

Exactly You should have stopped there.

[YGWHI]

Yup, definitely you aren't.

I'm tired of the assumption there aren't many young top NBA players posting here. Aren't you?

[TheDoctor]

I'm tired of the assumption there aren't many young top NBA players posting here. Aren't you?

I gotta say that they're real pros and know the business...

[ElNono]

Somewhat relevant:

Significant Active Officials -- road teams in Conference Semifinals 2007-2015 (sorted by away winning percentage):

OFFICIAL		hW	aW	a%
FRAHER, PAT		2	4	0.667
LEWIS, ERIC		1	2	0.667
PHILLIPS, JASON		7	10	0.588
DAVIS, MARC		9	10	0.526
CAPERS, JAMES		10	10	0.500
SMITH, MICHAEL		5	5	0.500
CORBIN, SEAN		5	5	0.500
ZIELINSKI, GARY		1	1	0.500
CRAWFORD, DAN		15	14	0.483
STAFFORD, DERRICK	12	10	0.455
SPOONER, BILL		10	8	0.444
FOSTER, SCOTT		18	13	0.419
MALLOY, ED		12	8	0.400
KENNEDY, BILL		11	7	0.389
GARRETSON, RON		15	9	0.375
ZARBA, ZACH		7	4	0.364
GOBLE, JOHN		8	4	0.333
MCCUTCHEN, MONTY	21	10	0.323
CALLAHAN, MIKE		19	9	0.321
MAUER, KEN		20	9	0.310
WASHINGTON, TOM		18	8	0.308
BROTHERS, TONY		16	6	0.273
MOTT, RODNEY		5	1	0.167
WRIGHT, SEAN		6	1	0.143

Thanks